"How" and "Where" does Smart Money trade?

travi

Well-Known Member
#21
Thanks for your time.

I understand your view and that it is your last post. And I am not looking for any debate, but just a reason for: Don't try and think what the Elephant is thinking.

I get that it is a core belief of yours. But I need to seek the reason as it challenges my own core belief. But I understand that no one here "owes" any answer to me. So, if anyone sees value in my question(s), and has a view, then please reply. Else also ok.

Also, my philosophy is to earn "wisdom" on my own--by asking first-principle questions, making mistakes, gaining my own experiences, etc.

Cheers everyone
Truth is, that if we know the reason or the answer, only then we are in control or we "know". This is basic human instinct.
That's why all the cooked up stories to explain everything (Earth was flat once and so on).

But everything doesn't have to be 100% surely known. Like life on Earth and ET & the countless why's we can ask. The world still goes on.
so for every move up/down in 1min TF, u think u have the capacity to digest the why ? ( let me make it practical )
 
#23
Both these answers I like. Thanks @travi and @Pradeep Narayan.

I have come to respect Traders a lot. These are market soldiers. Making honest money by facing brutal and cold marketplace-- and without doing any politics, manipulation, etc.

And your replies and time taken to answer my questions, makes me very happy.

Guys, I discovered Trading so late in life (have been a strategy consultant till now). Hoping it will be a fun ride!
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#25
Thanks for your time.

I understand your view and that it is your last post. And I am not looking for any debate, but just a reason for: Don't try and think what the Elephant is thinking.

I get that it is a core belief of yours. But I need to seek the reason as it challenges my own core belief. But I understand that no one here "owes" any answer to me. So, if anyone sees value in my question(s), and has a view, then please reply. Else also ok.

Also, my philosophy is to earn "wisdom" on my own--by asking first-principle questions, making mistakes, gaining my own experiences, etc. So I would unfortunately not benefit from someone else's wisdom (e.g. do this, do that). I am mainly seeking answers/dots/info. Wisdom I would prefer to generate on my own.

Cheers everyone
Go back to your traffic analogy. You do not drive your car on to the street by analysing what the other guy/smart guy/big guy is doing. You dont really try to find the reason why so and so guy drives in the wrong direction etc. You still believe in your capabilities as a driver. Your data/backtests etc are like your google traffic alerts, so that you plan your strategy. But trust me no single indicator like VWAP or any other can help you plan a trade in isolation. These indicators provide you some perspective in relative terms with respect to the recent past. That's all. As a driver you may follow defensive driving techniques and that is your risk management.
 
#26
Go back to your traffic analogy. You do not drive your car on to the street by analysing what the other guy/smart guy/big guy is doing. You dont really try to find the reason why so and so guy drives in the wrong direction etc. You still believe in your capabilities as a driver. Your data/backtests etc are like your google traffic alerts, so that you plan your strategy. But trust me no single indicator like VWAP or any other can help you plan a trade in isolation. These indicators provide you some perspective in relative terms with respect to the recent past. That's all. As a driver you may follow defensive driving techniques and that is your risk management.
Thanks. But then I would perhaps drop the analogy. Since no analogy is perfect.

Then, IMO trading is not like focussed-driving in traffic. It is more like warfare, where you need to be aware of the other guy's manoeuvres--esp. when you are in zero sum game situations (F&O, intraday shorting, etc.).

Also I am not after any single holy grail like VWAP, etc. That was just an example. I am trying to understand the big picture of how other players operate. And then I will connect all my dots..

Perhaps it will turn out to be a useless quest. But I need to give it some more time--as I have just started!
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#27
Thanks. But then I would perhaps drop the analogy. Since no analogy is perfect.

Then, IMO trading is not like focussed-driving in traffic. It is more like warfare, where you need to be aware of the other guy's manoeuvres--esp. when you are in zero sum game situations (F&O, intraday shorting, etc.).
!
If you answer the question who you are fighting the war with, then you already have your answer in there. In a real war, you know your enemy.
 
#28
Another dot about FIIs buying:
  1. Suppose FIIs got a bullish news about HDFC overnight. So, next morning they will all try to buy HDFC.
  2. But there is RBI cap on FII ownership. So, all will scoot to buy. [IMO, this will cause FIIs to buy even far up from VWAP too.]
Source: PR Sundar video: Why Technical Analysis ALONE is USELESS - Part 2 | P R Sundar

I am looking for such dots (either conceptual or experience-based). Not looking for any off-topic inputs (such as: Why are you thinking like this? How can PR Sundar say that TA is useless, PR Sundar is an options seller and hence not relevant, etc).

I will also at some point post a summary of our discussions (of only the stuff relevant to this topic).
 
Last edited:

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#29
Another dot about FIIs buying:
  1. Suppose FIIs got a bullish news about HDFC overnight. So, next morning they will all try to buy HDFC.
  2. But there is RBI cap on FII ownership. So, all will scoot to buy. [IMO, this will cause FIIs to buy even far up from VWAP too.]
Source: PR Sundar video: Why Technical Analysis ALONE is USELESS - Part 2 | P R Sundar

I am looking for such dots (either conceptual or experience-based). Not looking for any off-topic inputs (such as: Why are you thinking like this? How can PR Sundar say that TA is useless, PR Sundar is an options seller and hence not relevant, etc).

I will also at some point post a summary of our discussions (of only the stuff relevant to this topic).
In that case they will buy HDFC ADRs

Sent from my M2006C3MII using Tapatalk
 

sridhga

Well-Known Member
#30
Another dot about FIIs buying:
  1. Suppose FIIs got a bullish news about HDFC overnight. So, next morning they will all try to buy HDFC.
  2. But there is RBI cap on FII ownership. So, all will scoot to buy. [IMO, this will cause FIIs to buy even far up from VWAP too.]
Source: PR Sundar video: Why Technical Analysis ALONE is USELESS - Part 2 | P R Sundar

I am looking for such dots (either conceptual or experience-based). Not looking for any off-topic inputs (such as: Why are you thinking like this? How can PR Sundar say that TA is useless, PR Sundar is an options seller and hence not relevant, etc).

I will also at some point post a summary of our discussions (of only the stuff relevant to this topic).

If you are heavily into options, you spend lot of time in understanding options. You may lose out on your PA experience. I belong to that category of traders. Studying option behaviour takes all the time. You can call it my shortcoming.
 

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