"How" and "Where" does Smart Money trade?

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#11
I dont think its very productive to think of some market players acting as obstacles to retailer success. Everyone will try to act in their best interest.
Larger player may not even care for your small volume.

I actually look at it in opposite way, large players - investors or traders - in groups, might move market for long enough to allow me to make some money in my lower timeframe. Its always possible that larger players sell where you buy for a trade, but it does not matter as edges work over larger sample.

Also, every market has its own behaviour. I would not read too much into the exact specifics of any theory from traders trading foreign markets. US stocks and indices are likely very different to ours, they also have different constraints with lower expenses and more competitive markets. Best to take their concepts and test them in your target market/timeframe and see for yourself whether something works. Results can be surprising sometimes ..
 
#12
Thanks again Praveen. I really like your passion and style of explaining.

There are 2 possibilities:
  1. Trying to blame the roadblocks, when the fault or the solution may lie within
  2. Trying to understand the terrain fully (since Trading is a zero-sum game) + also focussing on self-improvement
I am an extremely self-aware person. So, I would like to believe that I am in situation 2 as of now.

I understand though that your belief-system could be different than mine. My core belief as of now is:
  1. There are many roads. It is like a video game. So other than self-management, I could also be smart about "navigation"
 
#13
I dont think its very productive to think of some market players acting as obstacles to retailer success. Everyone will try to act in their best interest.
Larger player may not even care for your small volume.

I actually look at it in opposite way, large players - investors or traders - in groups, might move market for long enough to allow me to make some money in my lower timeframe. Its always possible that larger players sell where you buy for a trade, but it does not matter as edges work over larger sample.

Also, every market has its own behaviour. I would not read too much into the exact specifics of any theory from traders trading foreign markets. US stocks and indices are likely very different to ours, they also have different constraints with lower expenses and more competitive markets. Best to take their concepts and test them in your target market/timeframe and see for yourself whether something works. Results can be surprising sometimes ..
Thanks. I agree with your point: Larger player may not even care for your small volume.

But I feel that while the elephant may not "care" at all for ants, it may still end up trampling them. So best for ants to know where and how the elephant moves. And it may even benefit the ants if they could take a ride on him, as you said.

Knowledge is power I feel. Apart from other things of course..
 

Pradeep Narayan

Well-Known Member
#14
Thanks again Praveen. I really like your passion and style of explaining.

There are 2 possibilities:
  1. Trying to blame the roadblocks, when the fault or the solution may lie within
  2. Trying to understand the terrain fully (since Trading is a zero-sum game) + also focussing on self-improvement
I am an extremely self-aware person. So, I would like to believe that I am in situation 2 as of now.

I understand though that your belief-system could be different than mine. My core belief as of now is:
  1. There are many roads. It is like a video game. So other than self-management, I could also be smart about "navigation"
Nothing wrong with your belief, do your homework and become successful in this pursuit... @TracerBullet & @travi have shared lots of their experiences in this forum, I am a bit reserved! I am sure you would find nuggets of wisdom in them... all the best!
 
#16
Are you limiting your view of trading to only intraday trading or maybe just F&O ?

If not then take a life time of any Nifty 50 Company, Say RIL or HDFC or Infosys for e.g. please explain how it is zero sum game?

Thanks
Thanks to your sharp comment my understanding is now refined: It seems that only F&O is a ZSG. Perhaps Intra-day too is. But not other longer-term trading it seems..

I did some quick googling after your comment made me re-think. Below:

Nobel Prize winner and co-founder of famed trend following incubator Commodities Corporation Paul Samuelson adds:​
“For every trader betting on higher prices, another is betting on lower prices. These trades are matched. In the stock market, all investors (buyers and sellers) can profit in a rising market, and all can lose in a falling market. In futures markets, one trader’s gain is another’s loss.”
Thanks to you @Happy_Singh I have my first solid learning from this forum within 1 day of joining!
 
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TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#17
Thanks. I agree with your point: Larger player may not even care for your small volume.

But I feel that while the elephant may not "care" at all for ants, it may still end up trampling them. So best for ants to know where and how the elephant moves. And it may even benefit the ants if they could take a ride on him, as you said.

Knowledge is power I feel. Apart from other things of course..
Yes, so there are many ways to trade.

I dont think in terms of how different players might act. There are so many people/institutions taking part in market in different ways and in different timeframes and with their own approach, i dont know how i could make it useful. Perhaps you can consider it as sentiment and look at aggregate indicators, like how TICK works in US markets.

Simpler approach has worked so far for me, just look at market data and test what works. You can get ideas by studying from good sources and then also from charts, but finally got to test it yourself over large sample.
 
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travi

Well-Known Member
#19
Here is my current understanding:

In Trading, there are always 2 sides: A buyer and a seller. So, if the buyer makes 100/-, then where does that money come from? IMO, it comes from the seller (either original or another). Timeframe of trading or instrument does not matter. Investing, though, might not be a ZSG (I am not sure here).

And yes, as of now I am mainly keen on intra-day...
This part is my 2 cents. ( I would not like anyone to draw a debate out of it )

One should "know"( not think/believe ) what his/her size is in the mkt, "elephant" or "ant" by your analogy.

If you are an elephant, i dont have advice bcos i've never been one.
But if you are ant, and your purpose is to make money from a trade, be it 1-min TF or 1-Month TF, be it Eq or commodity or curr or bitcoin, stop doing analysis of real-world and mkt and all that crap.
Dont try and think what the Elephant(s) is/are thinking.
Shut-up and follow the elephant, then however absurd/impossible/crazy it feels. Dont forget, those elephant(s) also uses stoploss.

My last post, read the forum, it covers almost everything including mistakes made, so that you don't have to repeat each one.
 
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#20
This part is my 2 cents. ( I would not like anyone to draw a debate out of it )

One should "know"( not think/believe ) what his/her size is in the mkt, "elephant" or "ant" by your analogy.

If you are elephant, i dont have advice bcos i've never been one.
But if you are ant, and your purpose is to make money from a trade, be it 1-min TF or 1-Month TF, be it Eq or commodity or curr or bitcoin, stop doing analysis of real-world and mkt and all that crap.
Dont try and think what the Elephant is thinking.
Shut-up and follow the elephant, then however absurd/impossible/crazy it feels. Dont forget, that elephant also uses stoploss.

My last post, read the forum, it covers almost everything including mistakes made, so that you don't have to repeat each one.
Thanks for your time.

I understand your view and that it is your last post. And I am not looking for any debate, but just a reason for: Don't try and think what the Elephant is thinking.

I get that it is a core belief of yours. But I need to seek the reason as it challenges my own core belief. But I understand that no one here "owes" any answer to me. So, if anyone sees value in my question(s), and has a view, then please reply. Else also ok.

Also, my philosophy is to earn "wisdom" on my own--by asking first-principle questions, making mistakes, gaining my own experiences, etc. So I would unfortunately not benefit from someone else's wisdom (e.g. do this, do that). I am mainly seeking answers/dots/info. Wisdom I would prefer to generate on my own.

Cheers everyone
 
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