ST da,
Since two more trading days are left before USA election result. Could you share your view on Nifty? Since my trading career, I have not come across this kind of situation. What I understood is that, if Hillary wins--then market will rejoice where as for Trump- market crash. DO you think, incase of Trump victory --market crash will happen? It would be great if you could share your experience and knowledge which will be much appreciated.
Markets are in a correction and till last 3-4 days the news from US was that Hillary Clinton has better chances of winning US Presidential elections.But in last few days news from US is that Trump is catching up and one they both are very close to each other in chances of winning.Trump winning was not factored in the market,so now market is discounting that possibility by going lower.
TRump or Hillary both are bad according to many in US but it is a question of having lesser evil of the two.MArkets now are oversold and Trump winning is factored to some extent though not fully yet.SO before the election results we may see some profit booking by bears who are sitting on good profits.
IF Trump wins, there will be a knee jerk reaction and the markets may sell off...but I don't see that sell off to take the market below 8250-8200. Trump winning is unlikely to entirely reverse direction of US policies so markets will take it in their stride and move on....recovery will be slow and laborious.I rate chances of Trump winning as 40%.
IF Hillary wins, there will be a corrective rally which may take Nifty to 8750-8800 but beyond that it looks difficult as we have Dec rate increase to deal with and the growth and FII inflow is not yet back in the market....
Many ways of playing the various scenarios.Buying 8500 put and selling 8300 put in a form of verticle spread is one strategy,staying clear and taking position once the results are known could be another,even buying a Nifty future and
hedging it with buying 8400 put or 8500 put could be another strategy...
The above are no predictions,no trading recommendations...but these are scenario analysis and :annoyed:some trades which I am considering in addition of my short positions in nifty...
It has been proved time and again that when the market dips on such international events,Indian stocks are great buying opportunity..so keep your buying list of stocks and money ready...I am looking to buy some of my favourite stocks and mutual funds if market takes a steep dip.
Smart_trade