General Trading Chat

[timepass]

TV News :

Supreme Court dismisses all pleas about Rafale Deal. SIT found that everything was in order.

Big relief for the government.

Rafale deal: SC rules out probe, says Court is satisfied with the decision making process

BY ET ONLINE AND AGENCIES | UPDATED: DEC 14, 2018, 10.45 AM IST

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ision-making-process/articleshow/67087107.cms


In a big relief to the Narendra Modi government, the Supreme Court today said that detailed scrutiny is not required in the Rafale fighter jet deal. While reading the judgement Chief Justice of India Ranjan Gogoi said that the Court is satisfied with the decision-making process and there is no occasion to doubt the process of the deal.

Dismissing all petitions seeking a court-monitored investigation, Supreme Court said court can't scrutinize every defence deal.

 

[Loss_Lover]

Bad times are actually best times for investing in equity mutual funds provided you believe that our country and economy will do well in 3-5 years in future....

Smart_trade

@Smart_trade sir,
With all due respect to your years of experience in the Markets, I would like to propose that we are hanging in the mid-air at this point of time and long-term investing in Equities would be risky now. Below is a monthly chart of Nifty from Jan, 2000 till yesterday (18 years).

View attachment 31605

Statistically speaking, every time market has probed 95th percentile of its past 3 years P/E on the upside it has fallen, again to rise-up from the 3 years 5th percentile. We are in fact at a P/E of 2008 which is extremely worrisome!

From a very long term perspective, I think, it will be better to put our heads in the sand and invest in safe asset classes rather than to be chest-up against the upcoming storm. Over the years my emotions have dried up and have become more of a skeptic. I will like to shift to Debt Instruments and safe-modes for the time being and let the all-around turmoil settle in 1-2 years. But bound by habit swing or short-term TA based trading in good stocks will continue. Net-net my approach would be to stay diversified.

For past 1 year baring Index Funds or the ETFs, no MF is able to meet their benchmark which is another major concern to invest in MF now. Also, as Retail participation has increased exponentially over the years, it is likely to become hard for the AMCs to handle this humongous cash in-flow. Moreover, in recent times SEBI has implemented more stringent rules for the Fund managers which will most probably drag Equity MF performance in years to come.

Having that said, I might be deadly wrong too... No offence to you, just my thoughts.....

Thanks for putting across your views,I respect these views .

We were in overheated market fuelled by money flow for last 1 year and the markets were due for correction.The correction is playing out and no one knows where it will end.In my view we are not in 2008 kind of situation because our economy is growing at over 7% and inflation is very much under control.In my view we are in early stages of strong bull market which will continue for few more years.

The corporate profits need to improve and there are signs that the process has started and it will accelerate further which will make PE acceptable.Last one year equity mutual funds have given negative returns but in a year before that it has given 35-40 % returns.Equity is not like fixed income which gives linear returns and very rarely it gives negative returns for 2-3 consecutive years.

At any point of time ( even at the bottom of correction ) people will be sceptical about equity ,so we have to consider all the factors and make our views....you may be right in your views but I differ with them and both of us can invest as per our views....I am investing in equity MFs in a phased manner and I believe it is a right way to do....in fact I am moving my money from debt to equity.

Best wishes for you,

Smart_trade

Thank you for reading my previous post,

Continuing our healthy discussion

Pioneer of "Analysis of Macro Liquidity", Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros together broke Bank of England in Sept 1992. Very interestingly according to them Earnings does not move the markets. No Govt. is responsible for a Country's progress. It's how the people of a Nation enhance their lifestyle and indulge into constructive infrastructure for cumulative progress.

The current Global macro numbers are deceptive all around. We already know that the Emerging markets are showing signs of a major upcoming collapse. I am highly optimistic that our economy will withstand all blows but surely would be pretty much wounded. Biggest evidence is the shrinkage of Liquidity. Above anything else our IL&FS case is extremely shocking and terrifying, recent RBI Governor's resignation, Political turmoil, increasing NPAs/Debts/Bad Loans, spine-wrecking financial fugitives (Mallya+Choksi+Nirav = Rs.80,000 Crs. scam), weak PSU Banks, depreciating INR, Trump, China, PoK and what not, what not...

To factually explain the scene, below is a Monthly chart, comparing S&P500/Nifty and TED Spread (Treasury Euro-Dollar Spread, a Global Liquidity Indicator) for past 18 years.

Zooming the above chart from 2011 onward:

I agree it's not 2008 but its not 2013-2014 regime either! Only time can show us the right picture. I might be babbling too early, may be? But considering current circumstances what if the TED spread surges above 0.50 to 1 or 1.5 . Why not start shopping then? Better safe than sorry....

Now coming to Elliot Wave count. Below are both Weekly and Monthly charts of Nifty Using Fractal Decomposition Method of past 18 years for EW count as developed by Michele Ricardini.

Weekly:
Monthly:

Presumably, you already know this as you are an ardent follower of long-term EW charts that on the Monthly charts of Nifty we are waiting for the 5th Wave of "Minor III" of "The Major V".

Why invest hard-earned money during a corrective phase anyways? Hope time proves me dead wrong! And this recent upside move is not a Santa Clause rally....

Best Regards

 

[cinderblock]

Aren't the next US elections in 2020?

 

[Loss_Lover]

Aren't the next US elections in 2020?

Thanks.... United States presidential election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.. Edited... Typo as copy-pasted wrong date from my calendar sheet.....

 

[Smart_trade]

Thank you for reading my previous post,

Continuing our healthy discussion

Pioneer of "Analysis of Macro Liquidity", Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros together broke Bank of England in Sept 1992. Very interestingly according to them Earnings does not move the markets. No Govt. is responsible for a Country's progress. It's how the people of a Nation enhance their lifestyle and indulge into constructive infrastructure for cumulative progress.

The current Global macro numbers are deceptive all around. We already know that the Emerging markets are showing signs of a major upcoming collapse. I am highly optimistic that our economy will withstand all blows but surely would be pretty much wounded. Biggest evidence is the shrinkage of Liquidity. Above anything else our IL&FS case is extremely shocking and terrifying, recent RBI Governor's resignation, Political turmoil, increasing NPAs/Debts/Bad Loans, spine-wrecking financial fugitives (Mallya+Choksi+Nirav = Rs.80,000 Crs. scam), weak PSU Banks, depreciating INR, Trump, China, PoK and what not, what not...

To factually explain the scene, below is a Monthly chart, comparing S&P500/Nifty and TED Spread (Treasury Euro-Dollar Spread, a Global Liquidity Indicator) for past 18 years.

View attachment 31665

I agree it's not 2008 but its not 2013-2014 regime either! Only time can show us the right picture. I might be babling too early, may be? But considering current circumstances what if the TED spread surges above 0.50 to 1 or 1.5 (Scary face). Why not start shopping then? Better safe than sorry....

Now coming to Elliot Wave count. Below are both Weekly and Monthly charts of Nifty Using Fractal Decomposition Method of past 18 years for EW count as developed by Michele Ricardini.

Weekly: View attachment 31666
Monthly: View attachment 31667

Presumably, you already know this as you are an ardent follower of long-term EW charts that on the Monthly charts of Nifty we are waiting for the 5th Wave of "Minor III" of "The Major V".

Why invest hard-earned money during a corrective phase anyways? Hope time proves me dead wrong! And this recent upside move is not a Santa Clause rally....

BTW mother of all elections, The U.S. elections is scheduled for Tuesday, 5 November, 2019....

Best Regards

Boss we can endlessly debate this issue without any conclusion....there will always be bearish and bullish view about the economy and the markets and everyone is entitled to their opinions. Some people will believe that our country and the economy has bright days ahead and some will believe that future for the country and the economy is not good......

Now as you have put your views forward, I am sure all the members must have read them and are aware of dangers of investing in equities and mutual funds and now let the members make their view and invest. I gave my view on ELSS fund to invest because someone here asked which is a good ELSS fund. So now let people decide and invest as they like...I am treating this subject as closed from my side and I wish you good luck with your investments.

Smart_trade

 

[timepass]

Some RBI meeting is over and there will be some press conference/press release. I guess that's what will give direction to this tuk tuk session.

 

[Smart_trade]

I wish to clarify here that from time to time many members ask me questions on investments.....I answer them to the best of my ability and experience but it should not be treated as an investment advice or solicitations .People should form their own views based on their own study and feel free to totally ignore any or all of my posts .

Smart_trade

 

[siddhant4u]

Rafale deal: SC rules out probe, says Court is satisfied with the decision making process

BY ET ONLINE AND AGENCIES | UPDATED: DEC 14, 2018, 10.45 AM IST

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ision-making-process/articleshow/67087107.cms


In a big relief to the Narendra Modi government, the Supreme Court today said that detailed scrutiny is not required in the Rafale fighter jet deal. While reading the judgement Chief Justice of India Ranjan Gogoi said that the Court is satisfied with the decision-making process and there is no occasion to doubt the process of the deal.

Dismissing all petitions seeking a court-monitored investigation, Supreme Court said court can't scrutinize every defence deal.

Reason for Chota Bhai stocks zooming past breaking everyone's expectations (and going down again as expected)

 

[timepass]

Reason for Chota Bhai stocks zooming past breaking everyone's expectations (and going down again as expected)

Maybe there will be some other news tomorrow to drown it. Yesterday there was the news that they have not paid Ericsson something like 3000 crores.

 

[timepass]

BOB (spot) has open = low, but doesn't look very trustworthy long so far.

View attachment 31649

I think that open low will get broken. Any thoughts ?

BOB did break its open low, but no conviction there for a short.