General Trading Chat

[Dr. Jan Itor]

I am surprised, people never talk about prices of pulses, onions , tomatoes etc, why?, because they are cheap, but that should be applauded no?
Coal mines, spectrum, mineral mines were auctioned, not distributed to acquaintances, no body remembers that. Electrification, roads, toilets are important, however people are more interested in being labelled backwards (the communities who are most well off in their states Marathas, Jats, Patels, Yadavs) and some how get a quota carved for them because they are mediocre and lazy.
Buying votes with private money is criminal I guess, but congress won by promising loan wavers with public money, thats OK?
Being a Doctor and a trader (kinda), I have been ridiculed by the present government in many ways, but I feel that they still are the best bet for next 5years (minus gaurakshaks) for greater good of this country. I feel dizzy when I look at the other group of opportunists waiting to get their hand at power and the coffers.
Hope sense prevails and people keep nation's interest over their own.

I usually don't comment on political issues because they are very emotive and I understand that some may react in a big way (not you Vivek sir in particular, but anyone, generally). All I say is that all policies (and their implementation) of this NDA2014 have been a continuation of UPA1&2 and all their policies were a continuation of NDA1999 and so on. And I thank God for that. I think Arun Shorie (although he too has his agenda), said it best when he described BJP = Congress+Cow.

I partly agree with you on the reservation issue.

On horsetrading and loan waivers I think it's an equal battle between the two national parties because (to be fair to them) none of them can settle the issue without committing political suicide. (Reservation issue too is similar but there are some important differences which make it easier to handle but none of the parties have dared to do it.)

 

[Dr. Jan Itor]

There is an 83% probability of a rally about six months before general election - based on past pre-election market moves.

 

[Smart_trade]

@Smart_trade sir,
With all due respect to your years of experience in the Markets, I would like to propose that we are hanging in the mid-air at this point of time and long-term investing in Equities would be risky now. Below is a monthly chart of Nifty from Jan, 2000 till yesterday (18 years).

View attachment 31605

Statistically speaking, every time market has probed 95th percentile of its past 3 years P/E on the upside it has fallen, again to rise-up from the 3 years 5th percentile. We are in fact at a P/E of 2008 which is extremely worrisome!

From a very long term perspective, I think, it will be better to put our heads in the sand and invest in safe asset classes rather than to be chest-up against the upcoming storm. Over the years my emotions have dried up and have become more of a skeptic. I will like to shift to Debt Instruments and safe-modes for the time being and let the all-around turmoil settle in 1-2 years. But bound by habit swing or short-term TA based trading in good stocks will continue. Net-net my approach would be to stay diversified.

For past 1 year baring Index Funds or the ETFs, no MF is able to meet their benchmark which is another major concern to invest in MF now. Also, as Retail participation has increased exponentially over the years, it is likely to become hard for the AMCs to handle this humongous cash in-flow. Moreover, in recent times SEBI has implemented more stringent rules for the Fund managers which will most probably drag Equity MF performance in years to come.

Having that said, I might be deadly wrong too... No offence to you, just my thoughts.....

Thanks for putting across your views,I respect these views .

We were in overheated market fuelled by money flow for last 1 year and the markets were due for correction.The correction is playing out and no one knows where it will end.In my view we are not in 2008 kind of situation because our economy is growing at over 7% and inflation is very much under control.In my view we are in early stages of strong bull market which will continue for few more years.

The corporate profits need to improve and there are signs that the process has started and it will accelerate further which will make PE acceptable.Last one year equity mutual funds have given negative returns but in a year before that it has given 35-40 % returns.Equity is not like fixed income which gives linear returns and very rarely it gives negative returns for 2-3 consecutive years.

At any point of time ( even at the bottom of correction ) people will be sceptical about equity ,so we have to consider all the factors and make our views....you may be right in your views but I differ with them and both of us can invest as per our views....I am investing in equity MFs in a phased manner and I believe it is a right way to do....in fact I am moving my money from debt to equity.

Best wishes for you,

Smart_trade

 

[Smart_trade]

Bhai whichever party comes to power the conditions of common people is not going to improve much....we have to improve our condition with hard work ,so concentrate on our work....let the politics be in it’ s place..

Smart_trade

 

[Riskyman]

Dont you think, this option will increase population by leaps and bounds.
and burden already over burdened population problem, the mother of all problems we are facing in our country.
You name a(ny) problem and you will find its roots in this excessive population of our country.

Very well said. Sadly, no one is talking about the perils of a burgeoning population in our country.
Water scarcity which is again related to excess population is another huge problem in many parts of the country. This problem gets even more aggravated if the monsoon plays havoc.
Politicians(of all parties) somehow never seem to consider this as a problem at all. Not sure how someone can even boast about it or even feel proud of the excess population when much of that population is well below poverty line.

Many learned people have filed PILs in the supreme court of India requesting the courts to direct the government to enforce strict population control measures. Hopefully something concrete will be done in this direction as well.

 

[Smart_trade]

Bajaj Finance at Rs 2525...Bajaj Finserv at 6100,DMart at Rs 1580,HDFC Bank at Rs 2100,Maruti near Rs 7600......and last but not the least Yes Bank near Rs 193.......balle balle.......

Smart_trade

 

[vivektrader]

Thanks for putting across your views,I respect these views .

We were in overheated market fuelled by money flow for last 1 year and the markets were due for correction.The correction is playing out and no one knows where it will end.In my view we are not in 2008 kind of situation because our economy is growing at over 7% and inflation is very much under control.In my view we are in early stages of strong bull market which will continue for few more years.

The corporate profits need to improve and there are signs that the process has started and it will accelerate further which will make PE acceptable.Last one year equity mutual funds have given negative returns but in a year before that it has given 35-40 % returns.Equity is not like fixed income which gives linear returns and very rarely it gives negative returns for 2-3 consecutive years.

At any point of time ( even at the bottom of correction ) people will be sceptical about equity ,so we have to consider all the factors and make our views....you may be right in your views but I differ with them and both of us can invest as per our views....I am investing in equity MFs in a phased manner and I believe it is a right way to do....in fact I am moving my money from debt to equity.

Best wishes for you,

Smart_trade

Sir
That wave C (in Nifty) is yet not confirmed to be underway untill we break wave A lows, right?, So that precipitous fall is still due?

Vivek

 

[vivektrader]

Duplicate post deleted.

 

[travi]

Sir
That wave C (in Nifty) is yet not confirmed to be underway untill we break wave A lows, right?, So that precipitous fall is still due?

Vivek

Even i'm curious to find out bcos haven't tried waves before

 

[Smart_trade]

Bajaj Finance at Rs 2525...Bajaj Finserv at 6100,DMart at Rs 1580,HDFC Bank at Rs 2100,Maruti near Rs 7600......and last but not the least Yes Bank near Rs 193.......balle balle.......

Smart_trade

Sir
That wave C (in Nifty) is yet not confirmed to be underway untill we break wave A lows, right?, So that precipitous fall is still due?

Vivek

If we dont make it to 11100 and go down then the low of wave A will be broken....but if we break 11100 on the upside then the worst case we can come somewhere near 10000 but not much below that.

From the market behaviour we may still be in wave B

Smart_trade