Diary of a 315 Trader

[trade4putuval]

Tata Steel (Short)


I have been waiting for Tata Steel since 350 to come to the current value, which places this stock as a valid stock for shorting.

Check the daily charts:

• Swing High: Check the first two arrows from the left. Previous swing high got broken at 363. The next swing high was seen at 389.6. Whenever a swing high is broken, the price action tends to move towards the next swing high. If this sustains, there is a downtrend, else the price will aim for the next swing high. Looking at the RSI, I guess the stock needs to cool down first before resuming uptrend again.
• Ichimoku Cloud Step: There is a big cloud step at 390 indicating a strong resistance to the price action. Check the third arrow from the left.
• 3 EMA Correction: Check the first arrow from the right. 3EMA has left. I guess this should be the first indicator of the price coming down and marking the first red candle.
• Target: Check the second arrow from the right. This should be the first target of Tata steel (352), but if this breaks down, the next chikou supports should be the targets, 331 - 313.

Checking other timeframes.

• 5 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 5 minutes last touched on Nov 13th 1520 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 11 hours and 45 minutes. Nov 14th (6 hours and 15 minutes) and Nov 18th (6 hours and 15 minutes) - Total: 12 hours and 30 minutes. Target 380.6
• 30 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 30 minutes last touched on Oct 30th 1500 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 12 days. Today is the 13th day. Target 360.6

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Tata Steel (Short)

I have been waiting for Tata Steel since 350 to come to the current value, which places this stock as a valid stock for shorting.

Check the daily charts:

• Swing High: Check the first two arrows from the left. Previous swing high got broken at 363. The next swing high was seen at 389.6. Whenever a swing high is broken, the price action tends to move towards the next swing high. If this sustains, there is a downtrend, else the price will aim for the next swing high. Looking at the RSI, I guess the stock needs to cool down first before resuming uptrend again. 391.55 high, but did not close above. This should be the stop loss for this trade.
• Ichimoku Cloud Step: There is a big cloud step at 390 indicating a strong resistance to the price action. Check the third arrow from the left. 391.55 high, but close came below the step.
• 3 EMA Correction: Check the first arrow from the right. 3EMA has left. I guess this should be the first indicator of the price coming down and marking the first red candle. 3 EMA still left, 379.65
• Target: Check the second arrow from the right. This should be the first target of Tata steel (352), but if this breaks down, the next chikou supports should be the targets, 331 - 313. Nifty should support if we need the target of 352, else we will have to exit on 30 mins SMC mentioned below.

Checking other timeframes.

• 5 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 5 minutes last touched on Nov 13th 1520 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 11 hours and 45 minutes. Nov 14th (6 hours and 15 minutes) and Nov 18th (6 hours and 15 minutes) - Total: 12 hours and 30 minutes. Target 380.6 Achieved
• 30 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 30 minutes last touched on Oct 30th 1500 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 12 days. Today is the 13th day. Target 360.6 365

Updated the price targets in purple in above quote.

 

[trade4putuval]

Arvind (Short)


Arvind looks good for trading shorts in the short term. It had a good journey from 75 to 127.

• RSI: The primary reason for identifying this stock is RSI - Daily (78.18), Weekly (94.12) and Monthly (71.93).
• SMC: The 15ema last touched on 4th October. It is almost one and half months since the last touch. I agree this is not a stock that qualifies for SMC. But looking at the overbought status, I feel this stock becomes eligible for SMC. 15EMA stands at 114.25.
• Chikou Span: There is no support till 105. So I am expecting the price to touch this value before going anywhere from here.

First target: 115, Second target: 105.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Arvind (Short)

Arvind looks good for trading shorts in the short term. It had a good journey from 75 to 127.

• RSI: The primary reason for identifying this stock is RSI - Daily (78.18), Weekly (94.12) and Monthly (71.93).
• SMC: The 15ema last touched on 4th October. It is almost one and half months since the last touch. I agree this is not a stock that qualifies for SMC. But looking at the overbought status, I feel this stock becomes eligible for SMC. 15EMA stands at 114.25.
• Chikou Span: There is no support till 105. So I am expecting the price to touch this value before going anywhere from here.

First target: 115, Second target: 105.

Please strike out SMC because Arvind does not qualify for SMC.

 

[bapu4]

hi T4P,
Sorry I was out of station for marriage and missed those gems,I will check and asses if I can trade in these stocks.
GBU
regards

 

[bapu4]

Hi T4P,
I bought put of Arvind PE115 @ 0.3 I cudn't dare to short because of huge lot size and wild whipsaw movement I will wait for 25-26th nov and hold further if the movement is favorable or will get out.
Rgds

 

[trade4putuval]

Hi T4P,
I bought put of Arvind PE115 @ 0.3 I cudn't dare to short because of huge lot size and wild whipsaw movement I will wait for 25-26th nov and hold further if the movement is favorable or will get out.
Rgds

I am not happy with your trade. Firstly you have bought put when next week is expiry. Even if Arvind manage to scrap 120, you will not benefit much from Put. I do not know the reason, but this is my experience.

I do not understand the reason for 25th-26th Nov. Is there any indicator that you are waiting for? Please share. :thumb:

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Tata Steel (Short)

I have been waiting for Tata Steel since 350 to come to the current value, which places this stock as a valid stock for shorting.

Check the daily charts:

• Swing High: Check the first two arrows from the left. Previous swing high got broken at 363. The next swing high was seen at 389.6. Whenever a swing high is broken, the price action tends to move towards the next swing high. If this sustains, there is a downtrend, else the price will aim for the next swing high. Looking at the RSI, I guess the stock needs to cool down first before resuming uptrend again.
  Well, swing high appears to be almost broken. So next levels 412 - 428. But I feel this will not happen soon.
• Ichimoku Cloud Step: There is a big cloud step at 390 indicating a strong resistance to the price action. Check the third arrow from the left.
• 3 EMA Correction: Check the first arrow from the right. 3EMA has left. I guess this should be the first indicator of the price coming down and marking the first red candle.
• Target: Check the second arrow from the right. This should be the first target of Tata steel (352), but if this breaks down, the next chikou supports should be the targets, 331 - 313. Now that the swing high is broken, 352 looks a distant target. But if at all, Nifty falls to 5800 levels, 352 should form the support.

Checking other timeframes.

• 5 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 5 minutes last touched on Nov 13th 1520 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 11 hours and 45 minutes. Nov 14th (6 hours and 15 minutes) and Nov 18th (6 hours and 15 minutes) - Total: 12 hours and 30 minutes. Target 380.6
• 30 minutes 100 EMA SMC: 100 EMA in 30 minutes last touched on Oct 30th 1500 hours. The price should touch 100EMA within 12 days. Today is the 13th day. Target 360.6 This has changed to 376.

Check my messages in purple.
I am still favoured for downside, but my reason is not strong enough. I am looking at daily and weekly RSI and all are overbought. Plus 30 mins looks very overbought. So unless the 30 mins cools down, I favour downside.

 

[NANDAMAD]

welcome back t4p ji

 

[bapu4]

hi T4P,
Thanks a lot for concern,the put had scaled to .55 and came back to .3,as i already mentioned I can not absorb the whipsaw in fut trade so may be little profit in put if it comes to 115 but loss is very limited,I know you dont prefer options specially in the last week but thats where I joined the market after coming back from outstation on 21 nov and I didn't want to miss it next 2 days movement of option price will indicate whether to stay in trade or not (10 ps less and i will quit the trade).
I dont have any indicator other than what I said ...
GBU
Rgds