Day Trading Stocks & Futures

[travi]

Berger King IPO lists at double the issue price....so people who got the allottment , doubled their money in 10 days....

morning open was also around 110-114. from there also upto 134-135

25% mila hai aaj

 

[TradingFloor]

morning open was also around 110-114. from there also upto 134-135

25% mila hai aaj

How many of you tried the Burger King? Is MACD far better?

 

[against_tides]

How many of you tried the Burger King? Is MACD far better?

Currently stopped eating outside food

 

[travi]

me stumped ? soon these guys will also sit in dharna.

Sebi defers T+1 settlement plan after opposition from foreign investors

Sebi defers T+1 settlement plan after opposition from foreign investors | Business Standard News (business-standard.com)

 

[travi]

Bata hits 1600

 

[primitivetrader]

14-12-20 NF 3M chart. I am not in long position

 

[sridhga]

14-12-20 NF 3M chart. I am not in long position

This seems to be a nice looking chart. What does it tell? To buy or to sell?

 

[primitivetrader]

This seems to be a nice looking chart. What does it tell? To buy or to sell?

manipulation zone was the buy zone where NF came and made the LOD but retail mentality came in between so did not buy

 

[timepass]

So, this is going to be a longish thread on the NIFTY.

Weekly Charts first:
1. The NIFTY rebounded in March - Spril from > -3SD & has now tagged and exceeded the +2SD for Six Consecutive weeks.

2. There have been 12 prior instances since 1998 when it has tagged or exceeded the +2SD for >= 5 weeks.

3. 11 prior instances. This is the 12th. 4 streaks ended @ 5 weeks, 3 streaks at 6 weeks, 2 streaks at 7 weeks, 1 at 8 weeks and the last one @ 12 weeks.

We have already done 6 cons. weeks this rally. That means good chance we stop tagging the +2SD in the next couple of weeks.
4. There is an outside chance - say 10% - we do a blowout, but we'll come back to that.

5. What happens when the NIFTY stops tagging the +2SD? Either a mild consolidation to + 1 SD [currently
@1263
and rising] or a pretty decent correction. Mild Correction happened 4/11 times.

6. The pretty decent correction happened to either of
-2SD 5/11 times [currently @ 10500] Or to
- 20WSMA 2/11 times [ currently @ 11800]

7. Why am I not sure of the timing? RSI can go up another 2 - 3 points. Weekly RSI tends to reverse from 76 - 77 or higher levels. BUT

8. Daily RSI has hit 79ish. Something the NIFTY has done at all the wrong points in history.

9. If you take the two data points together. Untag of the +2SD on the Weekly charts and the movement of the Daily RSI, THEN ....
..... the result is the following correction caused the Daily RSI to fall below 30 8/11 times and below 40, 10/11 times.

10. When we go to the Monthly charts, it is as bullish as they come and the RSI is also only @ 66 BUT Whenever the NIFTY has reversed from below -2SD, it has never done a multi-month tag of +2 SD at the first shot. We still have three weeks of December to go, but it doesn't look to me that it will be bullish.

If I have to expect something in the next few days, it will be a loss of momentum, before we hit a really rough patch in the first few weeks of 2021.

Q. Are we done with the rally?
A. No we're just starting out on one of the biggest multi-year rallies BUT There is a good chance that a pause is coming. Where does the pause take us? If we're lucky then maybe 12700 although I'll be inclined to think low 12Ks is more likely. Beyond that we see when we reach those levels.

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly on the Sectoral indices:

1. UGLY --> CNX IT. Exceeded +3 SD on the Monthly charts. Losing momentum on the BB charts & Monthly RSI at the highest level since December 2010 [10 years ago].

2. The Fine Ones --> CNX Energy, CNX Finance, CNX Infra
CNX MNC, CNX Pharma, Bank NIFTY and CNX Service.

3. The dark horses [These are really multi-decade turnarounds so hard to say yet] - CNX Realty and any PSU Index.

4. The one that concerns me: CNX FMCG

5. The one I'm not sure about is CNX Autos.

How is that SD calculated ? I googled and found some answers here :

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/st...a/calculating-standard-deviation-step-by-step

But the thing is that it keeps changing. I downloaded the data from TradeTiger from 1-1-2000 and the excel stdev function shows the deviation as 3384. I suppose it will also vary as per the timeframe : daily, weekly etc.

Anyway, many years ago, our member Deb Mukherjee had posted a chart giving nifty targets of 7500 and 15000. That was before 6200 high was significantly breached. Also, someone else had posted an EW chart of sensex giving a target of 48K and then higher.

I suppose it means that if a layman buys nifty / sensex ETFs today, it will much better than bank returns for the next few years, right ?

 

[kharikumaar]

Market showing negative bias today