Day Trading Stocks & Futures
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always on the other side
RBI policy signals huge govt deficit
RBI should have seen through inflation and cut rates, that it didn’t suggests it is quite worried about FY21 govt borrowings
Given how Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has dropped its GDP growth forecast for FY20 to just 5%, one would have expected it to trim the repo rate, even if only by 10 basis points. Since June, the central bank has slashed the growth forecast by a chunky 200 basis points, indicating how removed from reality it was even a few months back. Indeed, the arguments put forward by the Governor justifying the pause—the repo rate remains unchanged at 5.15%—are unconvincing.
While there may be some concerns on inflation prompting the MPC to raise the headline inflation forecast—5.1%-4.7% in H2FY20 and 4.0-3.8% in H1FY21— given how fast growth is decelerating, the concerns appear to be overdone. If the risks are broadly balanced as the Governor said, these numbers are nowhere close to even 5.2% and there is room till 6%, so where is the anxiety coming from? Demand side pressures are likely to remain dormant—core inflation is tracking close to 2% down from much higher levels in June—and while prices of food may be going up, there is little chance this will disrupt the inflation trajectory given the large output gap; RBI needed to see through the inflation, but chose not to. In contrast, growth is threatening to slip to sub-4.5% levels, and there are few signs of recovery. It is perplexing that the MPC should have taken such a conservative view on inflation-targeting rather than choosing to be more flexible.
Governor Shaktikanta Das’s observation that we need to wait for the impact of the measures taken by the government—cuts in corporation tax and the last-mile-fund for housing projects—to play out is hard to understand. What exactly are we waiting for? Even if the government does come up with a big stimulus package in the budget, that is some time away, and remedial action can be taken at the time. The only justifiable reason for a pause is that the fiscal deficit for FY20 is likely to see a big slippage, forcing the government to borrow more. That, then, could stoke inflation, though the large output gap reduces the likelihood. Also, it is possible RBI and the MPC believe they have done enough, and that they feel it is now the government’s responsibility to remove any hurdles to investment.
By RBI’s own admission, transmission has been slow; the combined 135 basis points cut in the repo since February this year has yielded 44 basis points of a cut in the interest rate on new loans at a time when the system has been awash with liquidity for six months.
However, as this paper has argued for two years now, cuts in the repo rate mean very little because banks are focused, as they should be, on their cost of deposits. If transmission has remained weak all these years, leaving Governors wringing their hands in frustration, it is because lenders are unwilling to let their margins contract. After many moons, deposit rates are now at multi-year lows while loan rates are not. Also, deposits are coming in at a reasonably good pace of close to 10% year-on-year, so there is ample liquidity.
But, now, there are two new problems. One, banks have turned extremely cautious about lending to businesses, which is not surprising given the quality of corporate balance sheets continues to deteriorate. So, they are not about to write cheques for enterprises that look shaky.
https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/rbi-policy-signals-huge-govt-deficit/1785840/
RBI should have seen through inflation and cut rates, that it didn’t suggests it is quite worried about FY21 govt borrowings
Given how Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has dropped its GDP growth forecast for FY20 to just 5%, one would have expected it to trim the repo rate, even if only by 10 basis points. Since June, the central bank has slashed the growth forecast by a chunky 200 basis points, indicating how removed from reality it was even a few months back. Indeed, the arguments put forward by the Governor justifying the pause—the repo rate remains unchanged at 5.15%—are unconvincing.
While there may be some concerns on inflation prompting the MPC to raise the headline inflation forecast—5.1%-4.7% in H2FY20 and 4.0-3.8% in H1FY21— given how fast growth is decelerating, the concerns appear to be overdone. If the risks are broadly balanced as the Governor said, these numbers are nowhere close to even 5.2% and there is room till 6%, so where is the anxiety coming from? Demand side pressures are likely to remain dormant—core inflation is tracking close to 2% down from much higher levels in June—and while prices of food may be going up, there is little chance this will disrupt the inflation trajectory given the large output gap; RBI needed to see through the inflation, but chose not to. In contrast, growth is threatening to slip to sub-4.5% levels, and there are few signs of recovery. It is perplexing that the MPC should have taken such a conservative view on inflation-targeting rather than choosing to be more flexible.
Governor Shaktikanta Das’s observation that we need to wait for the impact of the measures taken by the government—cuts in corporation tax and the last-mile-fund for housing projects—to play out is hard to understand. What exactly are we waiting for? Even if the government does come up with a big stimulus package in the budget, that is some time away, and remedial action can be taken at the time. The only justifiable reason for a pause is that the fiscal deficit for FY20 is likely to see a big slippage, forcing the government to borrow more. That, then, could stoke inflation, though the large output gap reduces the likelihood. Also, it is possible RBI and the MPC believe they have done enough, and that they feel it is now the government’s responsibility to remove any hurdles to investment.
By RBI’s own admission, transmission has been slow; the combined 135 basis points cut in the repo since February this year has yielded 44 basis points of a cut in the interest rate on new loans at a time when the system has been awash with liquidity for six months.
However, as this paper has argued for two years now, cuts in the repo rate mean very little because banks are focused, as they should be, on their cost of deposits. If transmission has remained weak all these years, leaving Governors wringing their hands in frustration, it is because lenders are unwilling to let their margins contract. After many moons, deposit rates are now at multi-year lows while loan rates are not. Also, deposits are coming in at a reasonably good pace of close to 10% year-on-year, so there is ample liquidity.
But, now, there are two new problems. One, banks have turned extremely cautious about lending to businesses, which is not surprising given the quality of corporate balance sheets continues to deteriorate. So, they are not about to write cheques for enterprises that look shaky.
https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/rbi-policy-signals-huge-govt-deficit/1785840/
Dear Investors,
In view of the recent developments in the securities market, we advise the following:
• Ensure that pay-out of funds/securities is received in your account within 1 working day from the date of pay-out.
• Be careful while executing the PoA (Power of Attorney) - specify all the rights that the stock broker can exercise and timeframe for which PoA is valid. It may be noted that PoA is not a mandatory requirement as per SEBI / Exchanges.
• Register for online applications viz Speed-e and Easiest provided by Depositories for online delivery of securities as an alternative to PoA.
• Ensure that you receive Contract Notes within 24 hours of your trades and Statement of Account at least once in a quarter from your Stock Broker
• Please note that securities provided by you towards margin are not permitted to be pledged by your Stock Broker for raising funds.
• If you have opted for running account, please ensure that the stock broker settles your account regularly and in any case not later than 90 days (or 30 days if you have opted for 30 days settlement).
• Do not keep funds and securities idle with the Stock Broker.
• Regularly login into your account to verify balances and verify the demat statement received from depositories for correctness.
• Check messages sent by Exchanges on a monthly basis regarding funds and securities balances reported by the trading member and immediately raise a concern if you notice a discrepancy.
• Always keep your contact details viz Mobile number / Email ID updated with the stock broker. You may take up the matter with Stock Broker / Exchange if you are not receiving the messages from Exchange / Depositories regularly.
• If you observe any discrepancies in your account or settlements, immediately take up the same with your stock broker and if the Stock Broker does not respond, with the Exchange/Depositories
Thanks & Regards
National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
In view of the recent developments in the securities market, we advise the following:
• Ensure that pay-out of funds/securities is received in your account within 1 working day from the date of pay-out.
• Be careful while executing the PoA (Power of Attorney) - specify all the rights that the stock broker can exercise and timeframe for which PoA is valid. It may be noted that PoA is not a mandatory requirement as per SEBI / Exchanges.
• Register for online applications viz Speed-e and Easiest provided by Depositories for online delivery of securities as an alternative to PoA.
• Ensure that you receive Contract Notes within 24 hours of your trades and Statement of Account at least once in a quarter from your Stock Broker
• Please note that securities provided by you towards margin are not permitted to be pledged by your Stock Broker for raising funds.
• If you have opted for running account, please ensure that the stock broker settles your account regularly and in any case not later than 90 days (or 30 days if you have opted for 30 days settlement).
• Do not keep funds and securities idle with the Stock Broker.
• Regularly login into your account to verify balances and verify the demat statement received from depositories for correctness.
• Check messages sent by Exchanges on a monthly basis regarding funds and securities balances reported by the trading member and immediately raise a concern if you notice a discrepancy.
• Always keep your contact details viz Mobile number / Email ID updated with the stock broker. You may take up the matter with Stock Broker / Exchange if you are not receiving the messages from Exchange / Depositories regularly.
• If you observe any discrepancies in your account or settlements, immediately take up the same with your stock broker and if the Stock Broker does not respond, with the Exchange/Depositories
Thanks & Regards
National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
Vodafone Idea will shut in absence of govt relief, says Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla
Birla said the company will have to opt for insolvency route in the absence of relief
Vodafone Idea will have to be shutdown if the government doesn't provide relief that the company has sought, its Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said on December 6.
Birla was responding to a query, posed at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, about the company's course of action going forward in the absence of government relief.
Birla said the Aditya Birla Group will not invest any money in the company in the absence of relief from the government. "There is no sense that good money should follow bad money," he stated.
Birla said the company will have to opt for insolvency route in the absence of relief.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...govt-relief-kumar-mangalam-birla-4705641.html
Birla said the company will have to opt for insolvency route in the absence of relief
Vodafone Idea will have to be shutdown if the government doesn't provide relief that the company has sought, its Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said on December 6.
Birla was responding to a query, posed at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, about the company's course of action going forward in the absence of government relief.
Birla said the Aditya Birla Group will not invest any money in the company in the absence of relief from the government. "There is no sense that good money should follow bad money," he stated.
Birla said the company will have to opt for insolvency route in the absence of relief.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...govt-relief-kumar-mangalam-birla-4705641.html
D-Street Buzz: Banks bleed led by YES Bank, RBL Bank, SBI; Omaxe tanks 20%
Indian stock market continues trading in the red with Sensex down 322.50 points or 0.79 percent at 40457.09 while the Nifty shed 92.20 points and is trading at 11926.20.
Nifty PSU Bank is the underperforming sector, down close to 4 percent after the Reserve Bank of India decided to hold interest rates. Investors booked profit on fears of weak economic growth.
The MPC significantly increased its CPI inflation forecast for H2 FY20 to 5.1-4.7 percent from the earlier 3.5-3.7 percent, with risks broadly balanced.
Following the continued drop in GDP (gross domestic product) in Q2 FY20, the MPC has considerably reduced its projection for economic growth for the year to March to 5 percent, from the previous 6.1 percent with risks evenly balanced in October 2019.
The top losers from the sector included Central Bank of India and Union Bank of India which are down over 5 percent each followed by State Bank of India, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Indian Bank and Bank of India.
The auto index shed over a percent dragged by Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Bosch, TVS Motor, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Exide Industries and Hero MotoCorp.
Share price of RBL Bank tanked over 7 percent and is the top BSE midcap loser after the bank concluded the QIP of Rs 2,025 crore at the issue price of Rs 351 per share (including premium of Rs 341) pursuant to the
allotment of 5.77 crore equity shares.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...bank-rbl-bank-sbi-omaxe-tanks-20-4706031.html
Indian stock market continues trading in the red with Sensex down 322.50 points or 0.79 percent at 40457.09 while the Nifty shed 92.20 points and is trading at 11926.20.
Nifty PSU Bank is the underperforming sector, down close to 4 percent after the Reserve Bank of India decided to hold interest rates. Investors booked profit on fears of weak economic growth.
The MPC significantly increased its CPI inflation forecast for H2 FY20 to 5.1-4.7 percent from the earlier 3.5-3.7 percent, with risks broadly balanced.
Following the continued drop in GDP (gross domestic product) in Q2 FY20, the MPC has considerably reduced its projection for economic growth for the year to March to 5 percent, from the previous 6.1 percent with risks evenly balanced in October 2019.
The top losers from the sector included Central Bank of India and Union Bank of India which are down over 5 percent each followed by State Bank of India, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Indian Bank and Bank of India.
The auto index shed over a percent dragged by Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Bosch, TVS Motor, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Exide Industries and Hero MotoCorp.
Share price of RBL Bank tanked over 7 percent and is the top BSE midcap loser after the bank concluded the QIP of Rs 2,025 crore at the issue price of Rs 351 per share (including premium of Rs 341) pursuant to the
allotment of 5.77 crore equity shares.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...bank-rbl-bank-sbi-omaxe-tanks-20-4706031.html
New highs? 11-year data suggest Sensex belongs to the bulls in December
The Sensex and the Nifty hit a record high of 41,163 and 12,158, respectively, on November 28, and are less than 1 percent away from breaking into new territory.
The Indian market trading at near-record highs is likely to pick up momentum, as anecdotal evidence of the past 11 years suggests that December belongs to the bulls.
The Sensex and the Nifty hit a record high of 41,163 and 12,158, respectively, on November 28, and are less than a percent away from breaking into a new territory.
Data suggest that the Sensex closed in the green in the month of December in seven of these 11 years.
The Sensex saw its worst fall in 2011 when it fell by over 6 percent, followed by 2014 when it declined 3.7 percent, and in 2018, the index fell by 0.48 percent.
The index rose in seven of the last 11 years. It rose over 9 percent in 2008, followed by a 3.7 percent rally in 2017 and 3.3 percent gain in 2010, data from AceEquity shows.
With the Reserve Bank of India policy out of the way, all eyes will now be on the trade negotiations between the US and China. Hence record highs are possible, which could be followed by some consolidation, experts say.
“The markets made a new record high last month but the bias was largely on the consolidation side. This month, too, weak macroeconomic data combined with not so encouraging global cues have triggered marginal profit-taking of late and indications are pointing towards further consolidation in the index,” Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking, told Moneycontrol.
“The outcome of RBI monetary policy may result in a further up move but upside seems capped, considering hurdle at 12,300 in the Nifty. Besides, signals are mixed from the global front. In such a scenario, it is likely that markets may conclude the month marginally higher.”
Historically, the Indian benchmark is known for walking over the setups provided by global markets, which no doubt are performing well. But, given there are no additional triggers, consolidation is likely on the positive side in December.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...belongs-to-the-bulls-in-december-4702531.html
The Sensex and the Nifty hit a record high of 41,163 and 12,158, respectively, on November 28, and are less than 1 percent away from breaking into new territory.
The Indian market trading at near-record highs is likely to pick up momentum, as anecdotal evidence of the past 11 years suggests that December belongs to the bulls.
The Sensex and the Nifty hit a record high of 41,163 and 12,158, respectively, on November 28, and are less than a percent away from breaking into a new territory.
Data suggest that the Sensex closed in the green in the month of December in seven of these 11 years.
The Sensex saw its worst fall in 2011 when it fell by over 6 percent, followed by 2014 when it declined 3.7 percent, and in 2018, the index fell by 0.48 percent.
The index rose in seven of the last 11 years. It rose over 9 percent in 2008, followed by a 3.7 percent rally in 2017 and 3.3 percent gain in 2010, data from AceEquity shows.
With the Reserve Bank of India policy out of the way, all eyes will now be on the trade negotiations between the US and China. Hence record highs are possible, which could be followed by some consolidation, experts say.
“The markets made a new record high last month but the bias was largely on the consolidation side. This month, too, weak macroeconomic data combined with not so encouraging global cues have triggered marginal profit-taking of late and indications are pointing towards further consolidation in the index,” Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking, told Moneycontrol.
“The outcome of RBI monetary policy may result in a further up move but upside seems capped, considering hurdle at 12,300 in the Nifty. Besides, signals are mixed from the global front. In such a scenario, it is likely that markets may conclude the month marginally higher.”
Historically, the Indian benchmark is known for walking over the setups provided by global markets, which no doubt are performing well. But, given there are no additional triggers, consolidation is likely on the positive side in December.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...belongs-to-the-bulls-in-december-4702531.html
''Today, the police brought the accused to the crime spot as part of investigation. The accused then attacked the police with sticks and then snatched the weapons from us and they started firing on police'': Cyberabad CP VC Sajjanar on today's encounter
Very creative!
Singham maine bhi bahut baar dekhi hai.
Very creative!
Singham maine bhi bahut baar dekhi hai.
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