Day Trading Stocks & Futures
- Thread starter TraderRavi
- Start date
- Tags banknifty bnf daytrading nifty future
Bring in the IT industry which is not fairing too good these days, have been put on Night Duty to get rid of me faster .. hahahah 
I guess most of us on the forum re preparing/ prepared ourselves like that
Morgan Stanley sees Sensex rising 20% in 2019; bets on these 8 growth stocks
The brokerage has set its December 2019 target for the Sensex at 42,000, implying an upside of 20 percent and 25 percent in rupee and dollar terms, respectively, compared to the MSCI EM index's upside of 7 percent in dollar terms.
The only caveat to its high target is that the Indian electorate does not deliver a shock verdict in the forthcoming 2019 Lok Sabha election by delivering a fragmented coalition government.
Many analysts feel that state elections and the general election are different in several ways. The thing to look at in the generals is the number of seats the ruling party secures in comparison to its tally in 2014, especially after all three key states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) turned in favour of Congress.
The Sensex going to 33,000 levels, which is bear case, have only 20 percent probability. It could happen only in case of weak global conditions, poor election outcome (a hung parliament) and earning below expectations.
Morgan Stanley continue to back growth at a reasonable price and believe the way to construct portfolios is to buy stocks of companies with the highest delta in return on capital.
They expect market performance to broaden and hence also like mid-caps where the forward growth is not reflecting share price performance.
Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi highlighted key themes in Morgan Stanley portfolio, wherein they prefer 8 growth stocks -- Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC, Prestige Estates, Asian Paints, Titan Company, M&M Financial and Bajaj Auto.
Both strategists expect FPI flows to improve in 2019 after they turned net sellers in 2018. They net sold around Rs 22,000 crore worth of equities in 2018.
"FPI flows have also made a cycle low, and with India ownership in the average emerging markets (EM) portfolio down to seven-year lows, there is a good case for a turn in FPI flows in 2019. This is also consistent with our constructive EM call," they said.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...19-bets-on-these-8-growth-stocks-3285291.html
The brokerage has set its December 2019 target for the Sensex at 42,000, implying an upside of 20 percent and 25 percent in rupee and dollar terms, respectively, compared to the MSCI EM index's upside of 7 percent in dollar terms.
The only caveat to its high target is that the Indian electorate does not deliver a shock verdict in the forthcoming 2019 Lok Sabha election by delivering a fragmented coalition government.
Many analysts feel that state elections and the general election are different in several ways. The thing to look at in the generals is the number of seats the ruling party secures in comparison to its tally in 2014, especially after all three key states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) turned in favour of Congress.
The Sensex going to 33,000 levels, which is bear case, have only 20 percent probability. It could happen only in case of weak global conditions, poor election outcome (a hung parliament) and earning below expectations.
Morgan Stanley continue to back growth at a reasonable price and believe the way to construct portfolios is to buy stocks of companies with the highest delta in return on capital.
They expect market performance to broaden and hence also like mid-caps where the forward growth is not reflecting share price performance.
Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi highlighted key themes in Morgan Stanley portfolio, wherein they prefer 8 growth stocks -- Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC, Prestige Estates, Asian Paints, Titan Company, M&M Financial and Bajaj Auto.
Both strategists expect FPI flows to improve in 2019 after they turned net sellers in 2018. They net sold around Rs 22,000 crore worth of equities in 2018.
"FPI flows have also made a cycle low, and with India ownership in the average emerging markets (EM) portfolio down to seven-year lows, there is a good case for a turn in FPI flows in 2019. This is also consistent with our constructive EM call," they said.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...19-bets-on-these-8-growth-stocks-3285291.html
@TraderRavi You still trading crude? Hows it going?
Asian shares wobbly, euro steady after ECB ends QE
Asian shares were on the defensive on Friday as investors kept a wary eye on economic tensions between Washington and Beijing while the euro was steady after the European Central Bank halted new bond purchases as expected.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 ticked down 0.02 percent to 2,650, not far from its 6-1/2-month closing low of 2,633 touched on Nov 23, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.39 percent.
"If US shares fall below their triple bottoms hit recently, that would be a very weak technical sign," said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities.
US corporate earnings due next month could throw a spotlight on the impact from the US tariffs on imports from China, while there is risk of a government shutdown and further political stalemate in a divided US congress, he said.
"Although hopes of progress in US-China talks and cheap valuations are supporting the market for now, we have lots of potential pitfalls," Kuramochi added.
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesman said on Thursday China and the United States are in close contact over trade and that any US trade delegation would be welcome to visit.
But that has hardly dispelled concerns about a broadening confrontation between the two economic heavyweights.
China said on Thursday a Canadian businessman is being investigated on suspicion of harming China's security, days after a former Canadian diplomat was detained in an escalating diplomatic row.
The moves are seen as a reaction to Canada's arrest on Dec. 1 of Chinese executive Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies, for extradition to the United States.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...ly-euro-steady-after-ecb-ends-qe-3289131.html
Asian shares were on the defensive on Friday as investors kept a wary eye on economic tensions between Washington and Beijing while the euro was steady after the European Central Bank halted new bond purchases as expected.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 ticked down 0.02 percent to 2,650, not far from its 6-1/2-month closing low of 2,633 touched on Nov 23, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.39 percent.
"If US shares fall below their triple bottoms hit recently, that would be a very weak technical sign," said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities.
US corporate earnings due next month could throw a spotlight on the impact from the US tariffs on imports from China, while there is risk of a government shutdown and further political stalemate in a divided US congress, he said.
"Although hopes of progress in US-China talks and cheap valuations are supporting the market for now, we have lots of potential pitfalls," Kuramochi added.
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesman said on Thursday China and the United States are in close contact over trade and that any US trade delegation would be welcome to visit.
But that has hardly dispelled concerns about a broadening confrontation between the two economic heavyweights.
China said on Thursday a Canadian businessman is being investigated on suspicion of harming China's security, days after a former Canadian diplomat was detained in an escalating diplomatic row.
The moves are seen as a reaction to Canada's arrest on Dec. 1 of Chinese executive Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies, for extradition to the United States.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...ly-euro-steady-after-ecb-ends-qe-3289131.html
Rakesh jhunjhunwala: 98% money is made in the market by being a bull: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
If some other government comes, it is not going to be the end of India because India is a responsible democracy. But I desire, wish, hope that we have a BJP government, big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Partner, Rare Enterprises, tells Nikunj Dalmia of ET Now at the India Economic Conclave in Mumbai on Thursday.
Edited excerpts:
In the beginning of the year you had said said crazy PE multiples for midcaps not a good sign. What is your view on midcaps now?
I can identify very small number of midcap companies which I can distinctly say dominate the businesses that they are in. I am quite sure now people had forgotten about 40 or 50 PE at 7-8% interest rates. And I still hold to my statement
You still feel the crushing fall that we have seen in midcaps in general. Selective stories are different but as a category, midcaps are slightly shaky and they are still expensive?
The midcaps have come off a lot, but they cannot have the kind of valuation that largecaps have for the simple reason that they do not carry the quality of businesses that the largecaps have or domination or the size or the cash flows. I think at some point in time, the market was too excited about midcaps, now that has mellowed.
You also spoke about the fact that this year is going to be a year of extra volatility. 2017 had spoilt us because we had not seen volatility but 2018 was a volatile year.Why is there so much of up and down in global liquidity markets and other asset classes this year?
Worldwide volatility has ruled the roost. I think a lot of volatility is because the actual exchange of the assets in relation to the trading is very few. Look at Yes BankNSE -6.38 %. Some 10 crores shares are traded today and actual shares which exchanged hands is 80 lakh. So obviously, when 80 lakh is increasing to price of 10 crore, at least temporarily, that leads to volatility. Also I think. it is because of nervousness, uncertainty and then when markets go down, stop losses are hit. So volatility is here to stay.
'I would like Modi to be PM again'
It is also that time in the cycle when we start worrying about elections and given what we have got in terms of state outcome election results, what is your view on the market?
With uncertainty because it is very difficult to predict the election in 2019. BJP had a stellar win in 2003 and in 2004 June, they lost the national election. I personally feel the MP and Rajasthan outcomes are very good for the BJP because you have 15 years of incumbency. You have a real identical vote. In Rajasthan, you have a history of change of government every five years. The BJP has not lost as badly as the Congress lost in 2013.
They say that lots of presidents in America lose the congress but they still win, they get re-elected. It happened with Obama, it happened with Clinton. I would not take this election result to be the final guide to the 2019 result. I will still bet my money on a BJP government led by Mr Modi. Having said that, India is greater than personalities. I would very much like Mr Modi to become prime minister of this country again.
I am BJP supporter and I will remain one. But the question is if some other government comes, it is not going to be the end of India because India is a responsible democracy and we have had no single government in power, party in power in parliament for the last 24 years from 89 to 2014. So it is not that the world is going to fall if a non-BJP government comes in. But I desire, wish, hope is that we have a BJP government.
You always mentioned over the years do not look at the news whether it is good or bad, try and figure out what is in the price, what are the markets betting on? In your assessment from the election outcome, what are the markets betting on?
Well markets have now forgotten the election. The election will again come into the markets in February-March and markets are betting on the fact that most people are taking the Indian economy wrongly. I look at it differently.
We have had five years of sub-potential growth. You had five years of sub-capital expenditure. You have had a deep banking crisis. I think IL&FS was the peak of the banking crisis. I do not see any other institution that is now left to be recognised in any huge manner in the NPAs. Capital investment is reviving. Consumption demand is good.
The Indian economy is ready to take off. With reduction in oil prices, the macro is very good. We have historical low inflation. We have a problem of plenty of food, not that there is no food. In 1966, we had to beg the US for wheat. Today we have so much wheat we do not know what to do with it. The prediction was that GST will lead to at least 1.5% extra GDP growth. Everybody is talking of the problems of GST. Nobody is talking of the benefits.
The economy is surely on upward trajectory and that is what the markets are recognising. Two things her; first, the economies are in upward trajectory and second is there is loads of local money still waiting to come. Based on these two facts. I still remain bullish.
I would like to share the anecdote which Mr Jhunjhunwala shared with me in 2008 or 2009. He said “ Watch my boy! A tsunami of domestic flows will come to India.” I think we have seen that. The SIP flows what have come to India and the kind of domestic investor belief which is coming to India is unparalleled and for me that is rise with India.
It is nothing. The SIPs are a billion dollars a month at the moment. This will reach 2-3-4 billion dollars and remember the SIP investor is not coming to make equity returns. He is comparing it to public provident fund, to insurance and insurance. You are paying 40% commission for the first year and 15% later on.
If the person who is investing in SIPs, gets 12% to 15% compounded returns, he is going to be very happy. I do not think there will be much volatility in the SIP flows. The path is only upward. 98% of the money is made in the stock market is by being a bull not necessarily a big bull but being a bull.
I made one of the biggest fortunes in my life by short selling in 1992
So you have always been a bull ever since you joined stock markets?
No, I made lot of money by short selling. Harshad Mehta was a dream. I made one of the biggest fortune of my life by short selling in ‘92. In fact, I will tell you an incident. We started short selling from 4200. So BSE CEO Mr Mayya would call me and say you are short selling, I will take your badge. Again he called me at 3,500, at 3,000 and then he called me when the index was 2,200. I told him Mr Mayya, wouldn’t you have been happy if you had joined me, instead of firing me at every stage?
But did he call you after that at all?
Yes we have short sold so many times.
If some other government comes, it is not going to be the end of India because India is a responsible democracy. But I desire, wish, hope that we have a BJP government, big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Partner, Rare Enterprises, tells Nikunj Dalmia of ET Now at the India Economic Conclave in Mumbai on Thursday.
Edited excerpts:
In the beginning of the year you had said said crazy PE multiples for midcaps not a good sign. What is your view on midcaps now?
I can identify very small number of midcap companies which I can distinctly say dominate the businesses that they are in. I am quite sure now people had forgotten about 40 or 50 PE at 7-8% interest rates. And I still hold to my statement
You still feel the crushing fall that we have seen in midcaps in general. Selective stories are different but as a category, midcaps are slightly shaky and they are still expensive?
The midcaps have come off a lot, but they cannot have the kind of valuation that largecaps have for the simple reason that they do not carry the quality of businesses that the largecaps have or domination or the size or the cash flows. I think at some point in time, the market was too excited about midcaps, now that has mellowed.
You also spoke about the fact that this year is going to be a year of extra volatility. 2017 had spoilt us because we had not seen volatility but 2018 was a volatile year.Why is there so much of up and down in global liquidity markets and other asset classes this year?
Worldwide volatility has ruled the roost. I think a lot of volatility is because the actual exchange of the assets in relation to the trading is very few. Look at Yes BankNSE -6.38 %. Some 10 crores shares are traded today and actual shares which exchanged hands is 80 lakh. So obviously, when 80 lakh is increasing to price of 10 crore, at least temporarily, that leads to volatility. Also I think. it is because of nervousness, uncertainty and then when markets go down, stop losses are hit. So volatility is here to stay.
'I would like Modi to be PM again'
It is also that time in the cycle when we start worrying about elections and given what we have got in terms of state outcome election results, what is your view on the market?
With uncertainty because it is very difficult to predict the election in 2019. BJP had a stellar win in 2003 and in 2004 June, they lost the national election. I personally feel the MP and Rajasthan outcomes are very good for the BJP because you have 15 years of incumbency. You have a real identical vote. In Rajasthan, you have a history of change of government every five years. The BJP has not lost as badly as the Congress lost in 2013.
They say that lots of presidents in America lose the congress but they still win, they get re-elected. It happened with Obama, it happened with Clinton. I would not take this election result to be the final guide to the 2019 result. I will still bet my money on a BJP government led by Mr Modi. Having said that, India is greater than personalities. I would very much like Mr Modi to become prime minister of this country again.
I am BJP supporter and I will remain one. But the question is if some other government comes, it is not going to be the end of India because India is a responsible democracy and we have had no single government in power, party in power in parliament for the last 24 years from 89 to 2014. So it is not that the world is going to fall if a non-BJP government comes in. But I desire, wish, hope is that we have a BJP government.
You always mentioned over the years do not look at the news whether it is good or bad, try and figure out what is in the price, what are the markets betting on? In your assessment from the election outcome, what are the markets betting on?
Well markets have now forgotten the election. The election will again come into the markets in February-March and markets are betting on the fact that most people are taking the Indian economy wrongly. I look at it differently.
We have had five years of sub-potential growth. You had five years of sub-capital expenditure. You have had a deep banking crisis. I think IL&FS was the peak of the banking crisis. I do not see any other institution that is now left to be recognised in any huge manner in the NPAs. Capital investment is reviving. Consumption demand is good.
The Indian economy is ready to take off. With reduction in oil prices, the macro is very good. We have historical low inflation. We have a problem of plenty of food, not that there is no food. In 1966, we had to beg the US for wheat. Today we have so much wheat we do not know what to do with it. The prediction was that GST will lead to at least 1.5% extra GDP growth. Everybody is talking of the problems of GST. Nobody is talking of the benefits.
The economy is surely on upward trajectory and that is what the markets are recognising. Two things her; first, the economies are in upward trajectory and second is there is loads of local money still waiting to come. Based on these two facts. I still remain bullish.
I would like to share the anecdote which Mr Jhunjhunwala shared with me in 2008 or 2009. He said “ Watch my boy! A tsunami of domestic flows will come to India.” I think we have seen that. The SIP flows what have come to India and the kind of domestic investor belief which is coming to India is unparalleled and for me that is rise with India.
It is nothing. The SIPs are a billion dollars a month at the moment. This will reach 2-3-4 billion dollars and remember the SIP investor is not coming to make equity returns. He is comparing it to public provident fund, to insurance and insurance. You are paying 40% commission for the first year and 15% later on.
If the person who is investing in SIPs, gets 12% to 15% compounded returns, he is going to be very happy. I do not think there will be much volatility in the SIP flows. The path is only upward. 98% of the money is made in the stock market is by being a bull not necessarily a big bull but being a bull.
I made one of the biggest fortunes in my life by short selling in 1992
So you have always been a bull ever since you joined stock markets?
No, I made lot of money by short selling. Harshad Mehta was a dream. I made one of the biggest fortune of my life by short selling in ‘92. In fact, I will tell you an incident. We started short selling from 4200. So BSE CEO Mr Mayya would call me and say you are short selling, I will take your badge. Again he called me at 3,500, at 3,000 and then he called me when the index was 2,200. I told him Mr Mayya, wouldn’t you have been happy if you had joined me, instead of firing me at every stage?
But did he call you after that at all?
Yes we have short sold so many times.
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