BollingerBands

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Bollingerbands for Monday, 23rd July, 2012 : Nightmare on Dalal Street !!

There's not much to say about today's chart. It's all self-explanatory. The bands are still narrow (Range 5372-5102, Width : 270), SMA 20 is still green but I guess it's simply a matter of time. The open mouth is now nearly 40 points wide, indicating the gathering force of the downtrend, which is supported by increased Vix.

INR has closed nearly at Rs. 56 against the USD and the dollar index is trading at 84.04. Europe and DOW futures are nearly 2% in the red. We may have lower BB breach tomorrow.

India vix = 18.66, NF ATP : 5143.8 LTP = 5122.1

 

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Bollingerbands for Tuesday, 24th July, 2012 : Lower BB Breached !

There's not much to make a headline today, although the earning season seems to be progressing ok.

The foreign markets too, are trading flattish with a negative bias; and so are DOW futures.

Rupee has had a major fall today, closing above 56 Rs. mark against the USD, and the dollar index is again near 84 mark.

What may be good for tomorrow ? a) India vix is down to 16.97. b) Today's candle is a doji, which may signal reversal when combined with lower BB breach, c) in America, Ben Bernanke is supposed to speak - maybe he will announce QE3 & 4 and we will hit the upper circuit and upper BB

What may be looking bad for tomorrow ? Well, everything is looking weak, isn't it ? And the monsoon isn't progressing as well as the economists would like. A lot of data coming out of Europe has been negative till the time of this posting, including the German PMI.

The BB are flattening (Range : 5373-5103, Width : 270) and the moving averages have a gap of 57 points between them. 7EMA is red while 20SMA is still green, thus giving no clues to further action.

India vix = 16.97, NF ATP : 5134.17 LTP = 5135.95

 

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Bollingerbands for Wednesday, 25th July, 2012 : Lower low, lower high.

Nifty pierced the lower BB today. The bands are slightly wider, with the lower BB curling down (Range : 5377-5097, Width : 320). 20SMA has also turned red and open mouth is now 74 points wide.

At the time of this writing, the European markets are about 0.5% in the green and the American markets too are trading with a positive bias. Is it the reversal or just a dead cat bounce after being oversold for so many days ?? Tomorrow will tell - the expiry day.

India vix is further down to 16.75; today's ATP is much lower than yesterday's and the LTP is above the ATP.

The dollar index can't make up its mind about staying above or below the 84 mark and is trading at 83.81 at this moment.

The optimists may feel that today's bar is a "Can't keep me down" kind of pinbar but unless there is a reversal (as shown in the yellow box), one must assume that the downside continues, with a stoploss at 7EMA (presently 5163).

India vix = 16.75, NF ATP : 5103.50 LTP = 5114.00

 

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Bollingerbands for Thursday, July 26, 2012 : SELLOFF !!

What began as a trickle on the downside, developed into a deluge and the day ended deep in the red. Lower BB was pierced for second day in a row and the BB are getting wider (Range :5391-5072, width : 319). Both the moving averages are red and trending down; the open mouth is now 98 points wide.

India vix is slightly down to 16.37.

The good thing is that the global cues green with Europe and American markets trading 1-2% in the positive. Also, INR has strengthened by nearly 50 paisa against USD (ouch.. I should have held on to my USD/INR puts ), and at this time, the dollar index is trading at 82.86.

India vix = 16.37, NF ATP : 5075.31 LTP = 5043.20

 

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Bollingerbands for Friday, 27th July, 2012 : Jittery upmove

57 points is a good upmove for Nifty, but the way it happened, it feels like a bearish session. Maybe the Fryday factor kicked in, with the traders clearing out their positions ahead of the weekend. Anyway, this topsy-turvy session has made higher highs and higher lows, but failed to pierce the gap : 5160-5180 area.

The oscillators : are throwing up an interesting cocktail of possibilities. There is a possible bullish divergence (green lines), but it will be confirmed only if the stochs move out of the OS Zone and into neutral territory (30-70). But, with the rise, comes more room at the bottom, and there is always a possibility that the indicators may curl down (red circles).

Meanwhile, the weekly clearly shows a downtrend, with the index closing below 20SMA.

On the daily, Nifty has closed below both the averages, which are red and trending down, with a 97 points gap between them.

The BB are widening with a flat top and lower bottom (Range : 5390-5054, Width : 336).

INR has further strengthened by 16 paisa against the dollar, the dollar index is at 82.77 at this point, and India vix is slightly up.

Europe is trading flattish with a positive bias and so are the DOW futures.

India vix = 16.44, NF ATP : 5139.90 LTP = 5132

Nifty Weekly :

 

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Bollingerbands for Monday - 30th July,2012 - Bounce up on global cues.

100 pts upmove tailor made for swing and intraday traders.

Bollingerbands for Friday, 27th July, 2012 : Jittery upmove
but failed to pierce the gap : 5160-5180 area.

The oscillators : There is a possible bullish divergence (green lines), but it will be confirmed only if the stochs move out of the OS Zone and into neutral territory (30-70).

Today Nifty filled up the gap and the stochastic divergence did play out. Though there is room for more upmove, if nifty faces resistance at 20SMA, we may well have a bearish divergence on the chart .. So there - so much for the technicals.

At the time of this writing, Europe is trading happily in the green upto 1% and DOW futures are flattish with a negative bias. Dollar index is at 82.86 and INR has closed weaker by 25 paisa against USD.

India vix is up at 16.6 and nifty futures' LTP is almost 30 points above the ATP, indicating the bullish sentiment, specially during the last 30 minutes.

But RBI's macroeconomic report has been released (saw it on TV) and it is going around cutting the growth forecast almost everywhere. It's a big pair of scissors that RBI has and may cut into the index tomorrow. So, be cautious with your longs.

India vix = 16.60, NF ATP : 5187.54 LTP = 5214.40

 

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Bollingerbands for Tuesday, 31st July, 2012 : Can't keep me down !!

Nobody expected RBI to cut any rates, specially after yesterday's macroeconomic report. So, in a volatile session showing a V shaped recovery, Nifty duly went retracement to its support level around 5150 and made a fantastic recovery. A lot of options nearly doubled today - both puts and calls. Did you make any money out of it ? I didn't - frozen watching the moves.

Anyway, at this moment, Europe is trading flattish with a negative bias, as are the American markets. The dollar index is slightly lower at 82.75 but the rupee has closed weaker by 7 paisa against the dollar.

Technically the index appears to be able to continue an intraday zig zag course upwards. The averages are strong. Though 20SMA is still red, nifty has closed above it and can now be expected to move further upwards. The bollinger bands are flattish with about 300 points range.

Caution : Nifty futures have formed a Bearish Hanging Man pattern, so, for longs, a stoploss at 20SMA (5215 spot) is advisable.

India vix = 16.01, NF ATP : 5213.97 LTP = 5239

 

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Bollingerbands for Wednesday, 1st August, 2012 : Hard fought gains

Nifty gained 11 points today, again making higher highs and higher lows. Significantly, today's ATP at 5249, just 17 points from the day's high, indicates that perhaps a lot of longs were triggered at the higher end today. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the index has taken support at 20SMA and moved totally away from 7EMA (which is still below 20SMA). The Bollingerbands are narrow and flattish, indicating that we may see a rangebound period ahead. The crucial meetings about the Europe are crucial now.

Europe is trading mixed. INR has closed about 8 paisa stronger against the USD. India vix is up at 16.45. The dollar index is at 82.69

Caution : Technically, the longs continue, with a stoploss at 20SMA, but 1) tomorrow is Fryday, 2) we have had 4 days of upside so a bit of correction wouldn't be out of place, 3) The stochastics are in OB zone.

But yesterday's Bearish Hanging Man candle wasn't confirmed by today's candle.

India vix = 16.45, NF ATP : 5249.53 LTP = 5256

 

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Bollingerbands for Friday, 03rd August, 2012.

Will post the commentary later.

 

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Bollingerbands for Thursday, 09th August, 2012.

Small retracement. Maybe it is a precursor to some major correction. The indicators are still in the oversold region.

Global cues are flat at this moment, but the dollar index has gone sharply up in the last 2 hours. All that could change, of course, before the start of our trading session tomorrow. US markets, too, are flattish.

The averages remain green and BB seem to be expanding a bit. Today was the third consecutive day of Upper BB hit.

India vix = 16.33, NF ATP : 5358.43 LTP = 5358