A view on commodities

[Aman1]

Its tomorrow I think.

 

[Catch22]

No Crude Inventory today?

I checked the link below ,to find out ..It appears to be tomorrow ...
will post the details here ..


source - http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

. Thu May 28
9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage
9:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

 

[Jameskan]

Hi! I am new to this forum.

This is really a nice thread.

I see most of the followers of this thread are trading crude oil. I hope this thread will continue discussing other commodities too including crude oil. And also USDINR which impacts the commodities a lot, so that members can have a broader view about the commodity price movements.


Jameskan

 

[Snake.Head]

Oil prices fall as OPEC output rises and is seen to stay high

Crude oil prices dipped in early Asian trading on Monday as rising OPEC output and an expectation that the group would keep production high added to sentiment that the market remained over supplied despite ongoing falls in U.S. rig operations.

Crude oil prices jumped almost 5 percent on Friday, their biggest rally in over a month, as a bigger than expected drop in U.S. oil rigs in operation set off a renewed rush of bullish bets.

Yet prices dipped on Monday as the market continued to be over supplied due to near record production in most oil-producing regions, including the Middle East, Russia and North America.

"Reports of the U.S. Oil Fund, the largest exchange traded fund in the U.S., withdrawing almost $1 billion in April and May, suggests recent gains could come under pressure from bearish sentiment regarding oversupply," ANZ bank said on Monday.

Oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) likely hit a two-and-a-half year high of 31.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in May and production is not expected to be cut during a meeting of the group this Friday.

Source :
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[nitingosavi]

any view on copper ?
I am new to this traderji world

 

[DSM]

Welcome to the world of commodities. Since you are new, just sharing a few observations that have helped me trade better :

* It is preferable to trade commodities after 12-12.30 PM after the LME opens and the charts are clear and give a higher probability directional view.

* Follow the USDINR pair besides the commodity charts and these are inversely related. Strong Dollar = weak commodity prices and vice-versa.

* It is preferable to trade commodities (or any asset) in the direction of the higher time frame. An intraday chart in synch and in the direction of the daily chart is a good way to trade.

***

Copper in all TF looks weak. Also the Dollar index is trading positive (which is again negative for Copper/commodities) However we have to look at the USDINR pair which surprisingly is weak -0.22% as of now.

any view on copper ?
I am new to this traderji world

 

[TraderRavi]

Welcome to the world of commodities. Since you are new, just sharing a few observations that have helped me trade better :

* It is preferable to trade commodities after 12-12.30 PM after the LME opens and the charts are clear and give a higher probability directional view.

* Follow the USDINR pair besides the commodity charts and these are inversely related. Strong Dollar = weak commodity prices and vice-versa.

* It is preferable to trade commodities (or any asset) in the direction of the higher time frame. An intraday chart in synch and in the direction of the daily chart is a good way to trade.

***

Copper in all TF looks weak. Also the Dollar index is trading positive (which is again negative for Copper/commodities) However we have to look at the USDINR pair which surprisingly is weak -0.22% as of now.

DSM Sir, one doubt , if dollar strong then USDINR up => commodities price also up in rupees , given they are constant/unmoved in dollar terms.

 

[DSM]

TR,

USDINR will have a greater impact than US Dollar Index. US Dollar index is made up of a basket of currencies, but generally denotes the strength of the dollar relative to the major currencies and is is more likely that the USDINR pair follows the Dollar Index (INR will then be in synch with the Euro, CHF, JPY, CAD, GBP etc.) But today, US Dollar index and USDINR pair were trading in the opposite direction. But you are right, the USDINR pair will determine the strength or lack thereof of commodity prices on MCX and US Dollar Index on international exchanges. However, we can refer to the US Dollar Index after 5.30 PM (which I think is the time USDINR pair stops trading) Somebody trading this currency pair could shed more light on this.

DSM Sir, one doubt , if dollar strong then USDINR up => commodities price also up in rupees , given they are constant/unmoved in dollar terms.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Anyone trading silver? Looks ripe for a breakout up or down still has to be decided, Weak USD will lead to a massive up movement strong usd will bring weak sentiments. Also its at a support line of $16.5 with a Fib retracement from $17.77. A break above $ 16.80 will encourage longs and break below $16.5 massive shorts. Views will me much appreciated.

 

[DSM]

You are right, Silver can move anyway. Though trading below 20EMA, it is holding at support for now. 37,950 seems to be a level to watch on the downside. Trading below, it will be weak and on the upside, Silver should trade above 38,800 to denote strength. For now it seems to be a congestion - no trade zone. Only after clear signal can Silver be traded. The previous spike on the upside to 39,150 was sold off.....

Anyone trading silver? Looks ripe for a breakout up or down still has to be decided, Weak USD will lead to a massive up movement strong usd will bring weak sentiments. Also its at a support line of $16.5 with a Fib retracement from $17.77. A break above $ 16.80 will encourage longs and break below $16.5 massive shorts. Views will me much appreciated.