Food for Thought........!

[timepass]

@ TP,

Within 24 hours, you have specified the FII activity details. Which is the website that reveals these details?

Cheers!
SS

It's available on nseindia.com daily.

http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fii_nsebse.htm

edit : You can also get the data here on moneycontrol.com

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockmarket/foreigninstitutionalinvestors/02/55/activity/FII

..

 

[kiranjakka]

Hi!

It had been a rise all along so far. From the low of around 4788, about 61.8% has been retraced upwards. So, a little breathing could now be expected.




As the 50% level falls around 5210, even if the markets fall due to profit booking, I doubt if it would go below 5210. In the event the markets do NOT fall, then 5450 is the likely target.

During all the five sessions of the last week, there was not much of a movement and the spot Nifty remained flat, indicating a kind of consolidation. It would be interesting to find, if the breakout is upwards or downwards, and unless that happens, it would not be wise to do any kind of trading, including day-trading.

On the US$-INR front, after touching/crossing the level of 38.2 % around Rs 54.45 per dollar, the US$ had started strengthening thereafter.





However, now that it has crossed the 55.62 mark, the Indian Rupee can once again start gaining strength and may move again towards the target around 53.50 Rupees per US$.

That is my opinion and I could be wrong.


@ kiranjakka,

I prefer sticking to Nifty and sometimes BankNifty. I take support from the Forex because it has a direct impact on the stock markets. So, I avoid Commodities. Thanks for the suggestion.


@ TP,

Within 24 hours, you have specified the FII activity details. Which is the website that reveals these details?

Cheers!
SS

i was intrested in crude as it has direct imapct on out market.

 

[S S]

Hi!

The markets either go up, or down or move sideways. Using the charts and the Technical Analysis, one only tries to find the best suited option from these three.

On most of the Fridays, Profit booking is observed, and yesterday was no exception. In addition, it was Friday the Thirteenth.

And yet, there was something mysterious happening, which puzzled me.

The daily EOD chart for spot Nifty shows, that after the rise from the low of around4530 on 20th Dec 2011 to the high of around 5630 on 22nd Feb, the spot Nifty had fallen to the low of around 4770 on 4th Jun and started moving upwards thereafter, upto the high of around 5348 on Tuesday 10th July.

The candle for 11th July can be described as ‘Harami’ which indicated a fall there after.

On Wednesday 12th July, everything appeared OK, till some mysterious person sold dollars that devalued the Rupee and simultaneously, brought the markets down. Nothing was known about this mysterious person.

But the real mystery took place on Friday the 13th July.

Most of the Asian markets were in the Green. Nifty opened in the Green and was firming up. In the afternoon, the European markets also opened up with a gain of around 0.50% and simultaneously, the Rupee was gaining strength against the US$.

The only results declared were for HDFC Bank, which were better than expected. There was no other news, which was negative.

And yet, the markets had a fall. This may be only due to Profit booking.

It is evident, that everyone shall now expect the markets to fall further and move to the level around 5080, which is a strong possibility.

But later on Friday the 13th July, the US markets also opened strong.

That made me have a look at the Weekly chart for the spot Nifty.

If I discount the mysterious happenings on last two sessions, then the next week’s candle must make an attempt to touch/cross 5430 for the spot Nifty. This is not anticipated by the most. But many times, markets do the un-expected.

However, if the next week’s candle is red and has a low below the 5217 level, then it may have it’s lower Wick long. In such a case, the weekly candle for the settlement week may make the attempt for 5430.

I wonder, if someone had some ‘Inside’ information (which is yet to be known to public) and that was used to sell the holdings, which brought the markets down. Such person has to be a politician or a bureaucrat, mis-using his position and authority for personal gains.

Overall, a tricky and mysterious situation. Play safe and adhere to the tune of the market.

That is my opinion and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

On 3rd Apr 2012, we saw an Island being formed by the daily candle. On this day, there was a gap-up opening, but on the following day, that is on 4th Apr 2012, there was a gap-down opening. It was a bearish Island and there after, the markets had tumbled down.

I wonder, if the candle on Thu 19th July has also formed an Island, because on that day, there was a gap-up opening and the subsequent day had a gap-down opening.

Although my charts show a buy signal on Wed 18th July [shown by the upward Green coloured arrow] the Island nullifies it.

Which means that in spite of the buy signal appearing on the chart, there is an indication for a likely fall in the forthcoming session on Monday 23rd July 2012.

If and only if, the markets fill up this gap on Monday, that the candle for 19th July shall no longer remain as an Island.

But remember that the Dow Jones and other American Indices were in the red on Friday 20th July.

It shall be interesting to find, as to how the various Asian markets open on Monday 23rd July and their behaviour there after.

On the US$-INR Forex Currency front for exchange future rate for the current month, we find that after reaching the low of Rs 54.4175 the Rupee started falling to reach the high of 56.26 on 9th July.

It has once again started gaining strength to close at 55.3375 Rupees per US$. This shows the inflow of foreign exchange that should make the stock markets go up.

These are contrarian signals, indicating the dilemma in the minds of people.

Markets are likely to remain sideways and range bound. Even if some spike occurs during the session, it is not likely to decide the market trend for that day.

Only regular and habitual traders should continue trading. Others are likely to get caught on the wrong foot, leading to losses.

That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Take care
SS

 

[timepass]

SS, do you see INR strengthening in near future ?? What is your thought about INR/USD ??

 

[Sultaan]

SSji 3rd april was a clear island reversal, but now we have filled the island gap & this time there's no island... need to sustain above 5080 eod & 5150 weekly as weekly turning bullish... (post settlement may see real picture)

Rs. seems heading for 52.5 break of which will decide further...

 

[S S]

TP,

The US$-INR chart appearing in my earlier message shows a channel formed, wherein the upper slanting red line shows the resistance and the lower Green slanting line shows the support.

No matter what we wish, the current candles are nearer to the support region. Therefore, there is a limit to the value to which US$ shall fall, unless it breaks the channel.

But then, one needs to have a solid reason for that to happen along with a laaaaaaaaarge inflow of Foreign Exchange.

Difficult, but NOT impossible.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

For last three sessions, the Dow Jones and the American stock markets have been showing strength, which has not been reflected in the Indian stock markets. The chart for the spot Nifty as on Friday 27th July appears as follows :

The Nifty can either proceed downwards towards 4950 OR move upwards towards 5210 level. But in the upward move, the 5177 region is a strong resistance level. So what is likely and possible?

The RBI announcement is due on Tuesday 31st July. Either in anticipation of the same, or through inside informers, the market is likely to move upwards on Monday 30th July, which shall continue in the early hours of Tuesday 31st July.

Depending on the nature of the announcement, the Nifty could reach/cross the levels like 5177, 5210 and even may attempt 5240-5250 levels.

It is less likely that the spot Nifty could do anything better. Because after attaining these levels even partially, Nifty shall turn downwards towards it’s target of 4950.

On the Forex front, this could be observed for confirmation. As the Nifty moves up, the INR shall gain strength, and US$ will start becoming cheaper till the Nifty is moving up.

The downward movement of Nifty could coincide with the INR starting to loose strength, and the US$ target for 60 INR per US$ shall become effective again.

It is possible that the time factor expected by me as above, could get extended. From the Weekly chart for spot Nifty, the negativity is not yet exposed.

So for the weekly charts to be in line with the daily EOD charts, after the markets have first climbed up, there could be a major fall during the week.

That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Hi!

There appears to be a very strong dilemma in the minds of the traders. Presently the Bulls and the Bears appear to be equally divided over the direction of the Indian Stock markets.

During last 4 trading sessions, we find 3 candles, which have a very long lower wick. This indicates that the market has tried to go downwards, but has not sustained.

Simultaneously, we also find that the last two candles have developed a Lower Top Lower Bottom, indicating a negativity in the minds of the traders.

Judging for the next week, is therefore extremely difficult. But there are some guide lines one could keep in mind.

If the Lower top Lower Bottom continues for the next session, then the spot Nifty shall remain below 5210 on Monday 6th Aug 2012, and may move downwards. If not, it may climb up to it’s value of 5257.75, which was the high made on 19th July. So long as this level of 5257.75 is NOT broken, the negativity could be considered as in tact.

The RSI and Stochastic indicators [not in the above chart] are NOT providing any help.

On the USD-INR Forex front, the dilemma continues.

Candles for all the five sessions of last week had a Higher Top Higher Bottom formation, thereby indicating an up trend, weakening the INR.

Monday’s candle shall be decisive. If this formation continues, then the Trend for Nifty could be downwards. But if the Forex markets take a breather and US$ strengthens against INR, then one could expect Nifty to move upwards.

A tricky situation, so trade carefully.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

 

[kiranjakka]

Hi!

There appears to be a very strong dilemma in the minds of the traders. Presently the Bulls and the Bears appear to be equally divided over the direction of the Indian Stock markets.


During last 4 trading sessions, we find 3 candles, which have a very long lower wick. This indicates that the market has tried to go downwards, but has not sustained.

Simultaneously, we also find that the last two candles have developed a Lower Top Lower Bottom, indicating a negativity in the minds of the traders.

Judging for the next week, is therefore extremely difficult. But there are some guide lines one could keep in mind.

If the Lower top Lower Bottom continues for the next session, then the spot Nifty shall remain below 5210 on Monday 6th Aug 2012, and may move downwards. If not, it may climb up to it’s value of 5257.75, which was the high made on 19th July. So long as this level of 5257.75 is NOT broken, the negativity could be considered as in tact.

The RSI and Stochastic indicators [not in the above chart] are NOT providing any help.

On the USD-INR Forex front, the dilemma continues.





Candles for all the five sessions of last week had a Higher Top Higher Bottom formation, thereby indicating an up trend, weakening the INR.

Monday’s candle shall be decisive. If this formation continues, then the Trend for Nifty could be downwards. But if the Forex markets take a breather and US$ strengthens against INR, then one could expect Nifty to move upwards.

A tricky situation, so trade carefully.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

hey can a strengthening dollar push our markets up can you please explain your above post i think dollar is in inverse relationship with nifty?