Food for Thought........!
- Thread starter S S
- Start date
Hi!
Today, for a change, let us start with the USD-INR Futures daily EOD chart.
From the minimum of around Rs 49.48 on 6th Feb 2012, the US$ went on gaining strength to reach the high of around Rs 57.525 per US$ on 27th Jun 2012. Thereafter, for the subsequent two day, turned downwards.
Usually, it is expected that the correction is atleast around 50%, which fixes a target of around Rs 53.50 per US$. But is the correction is required to be healthy, is should be 61.8% that fixes a target of around Rs 52.55 per US$ A weak correction shall end at 38.2% which is around Rs 54.45 per US$.
But all the possibilities show inflow of foreign exchange into the country, that shall strengthen the stock markets. Correspondingly, the upward movement that shall exist in the markets shall have the targets that can be seen form the EOD chart for spot Nifty.
Therefore based on the inflow of foreign exchange, the stock markets could move towards the targets of around 5300, 5427 and 5630, as can be seen from the chart. The expected resistances are likely to be around 5343, 5380 and 5500 levels.
This could also be because the govt has declared that GAAR [General Anti Avoidance Rule] shall NOT be applicable to stock markets.
The indication of upward movement also indicates the political stability, which means that Pronobda is assured of a victory and shall be the next President of India.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
Today, for a change, let us start with the USD-INR Futures daily EOD chart.
From the minimum of around Rs 49.48 on 6th Feb 2012, the US$ went on gaining strength to reach the high of around Rs 57.525 per US$ on 27th Jun 2012. Thereafter, for the subsequent two day, turned downwards.
Usually, it is expected that the correction is atleast around 50%, which fixes a target of around Rs 53.50 per US$. But is the correction is required to be healthy, is should be 61.8% that fixes a target of around Rs 52.55 per US$ A weak correction shall end at 38.2% which is around Rs 54.45 per US$.
But all the possibilities show inflow of foreign exchange into the country, that shall strengthen the stock markets. Correspondingly, the upward movement that shall exist in the markets shall have the targets that can be seen form the EOD chart for spot Nifty.
Therefore based on the inflow of foreign exchange, the stock markets could move towards the targets of around 5300, 5427 and 5630, as can be seen from the chart. The expected resistances are likely to be around 5343, 5380 and 5500 levels.
This could also be because the govt has declared that GAAR [General Anti Avoidance Rule] shall NOT be applicable to stock markets.
The indication of upward movement also indicates the political stability, which means that Pronobda is assured of a victory and shall be the next President of India.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS
The depreciation of the rupee did not result in any significant flight of the capital from the stock market. So, the traditional formula of co-relation between the rupee and FII inflows may not apply this time around. I think they will also consider the general state of the economy including the current account deficit / inflation/ monsoon / balance of payments / manufacturing index etc.. There does not seem any fundamental reason for the current uptrend and it looks like pumped up for some particular reason (specially considering the index pumping in the last 15 min of each session). I think that as soon as those reasons are done, we will see the rally puncture.
The FIIs are getting a 25% added benefit of investing at 57-55 range AND a lower index aka 5200. Why not. Maybe they did not exit, but they can enter na ....
Think of it that they have entered at these range enormously, that would take the rupee down to say 53 or 52 and maybe even 48 again ... that in itself would be a 25% appreciation for the FIIs. Add to that all that money pumping .. would not the index be at 5600 and midcaps roaring like talibaan firing rockets eh ... Double Bounty.
Also remember that they are getting the money free there ... Zero Interest.
Why Not - as a businessman - its a superb chance ...
Just my view ....
Think of it that they have entered at these range enormously, that would take the rupee down to say 53 or 52 and maybe even 48 again ... that in itself would be a 25% appreciation for the FIIs. Add to that all that money pumping .. would not the index be at 5600 and midcaps roaring like talibaan firing rockets eh ... Double Bounty.
Also remember that they are getting the money free there ... Zero Interest.
Why Not - as a businessman - its a superb chance ...
Just my view ....
Rupee falls to 55.45/46 from its previous close of 54.94/95, tracking weaker risk currencies after monetary easing from China, the euro zone and Britain signalled a growing level of alarm about the global economy.
The euro languished at five-week lows against the greenback and at record troughs versus commodity currencies.
Traders will now await the U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT for further direction. Consensus forecasts is for 90,000 jobs to have been added.
The BSE Sensex was trading down 0.3 percent.
Source:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/06/rupee-falls-on-global-risk-us-jobs-eyed-idINDEE86502Z20120706
The euro languished at five-week lows against the greenback and at record troughs versus commodity currencies.
Traders will now await the U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT for further direction. Consensus forecasts is for 90,000 jobs to have been added.
The BSE Sensex was trading down 0.3 percent.
Source:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/06/rupee-falls-on-global-risk-us-jobs-eyed-idINDEE86502Z20120706
Hi!
It had been a rise all along so far. From the low of around 4788, about 61.8% has been retraced upwards. So, a little breathing could now be expected.
As the 50% level falls around 5210, even if the markets fall due to profit booking, I doubt if it would go below 5210. In the event the markets do NOT fall, then 5450 is the likely target.
During all the five sessions of the last week, there was not much of a movement and the spot Nifty remained flat, indicating a kind of consolidation. It would be interesting to find, if the breakout is upwards or downwards, and unless that happens, it would not be wise to do any kind of trading, including day-trading.
On the US$-INR front, after touching/crossing the level of 38.2 % around Rs 54.45 per dollar, the US$ had started strengthening thereafter.
However, now that it has crossed the 55.62 mark, the Indian Rupee can once again start gaining strength and may move again towards the target around 53.50 Rupees per US$.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
@ kiranjakka,
I prefer sticking to Nifty and sometimes BankNifty. I take support from the Forex because it has a direct impact on the stock markets. So, I avoid Commodities. Thanks for the suggestion.
@ TP,
Within 24 hours, you have specified the FII activity details. Which is the website that reveals these details?
Cheers!
SS
It had been a rise all along so far. From the low of around 4788, about 61.8% has been retraced upwards. So, a little breathing could now be expected.
As the 50% level falls around 5210, even if the markets fall due to profit booking, I doubt if it would go below 5210. In the event the markets do NOT fall, then 5450 is the likely target.
During all the five sessions of the last week, there was not much of a movement and the spot Nifty remained flat, indicating a kind of consolidation. It would be interesting to find, if the breakout is upwards or downwards, and unless that happens, it would not be wise to do any kind of trading, including day-trading.
On the US$-INR front, after touching/crossing the level of 38.2 % around Rs 54.45 per dollar, the US$ had started strengthening thereafter.
However, now that it has crossed the 55.62 mark, the Indian Rupee can once again start gaining strength and may move again towards the target around 53.50 Rupees per US$.
That is my opinion and I could be wrong.
@ kiranjakka,
I prefer sticking to Nifty and sometimes BankNifty. I take support from the Forex because it has a direct impact on the stock markets. So, I avoid Commodities. Thanks for the suggestion.
@ TP,
Within 24 hours, you have specified the FII activity details. Which is the website that reveals these details?
Cheers!
SS
Last edited:
Similar threads
-
Nekkanti Sea Foods files draft papers with Sebi for Rs 750 crore IPO
- Started by Shilpa tiwari
- Replies: 0
-
-
-
-
Trading strategy(hidden)-find out-comment-food for thought
- Started by rvlv
- Replies: 8