Food for Thought........!

Discussion in 'Derivatives' started by S S, Aug 16, 2008.

  1. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    The Crude prices have reached their recent low around US $ 111 per barrel. The level of US $ 108 per barrel may now act as a support to stop the downslide in crude prices, as this level is at 50% retracement from the low of around US $ 70 on 22nd Aug 07 to he recent high of around US $ 147. But subsequently, the downslide may continue to complete the 61.8% retracement at around US $ 99 per barrel. Interestingly, on 7th April this year, there was a gap-up opening, and as the gap is yet to be filled, this level of US $ 99 should work as a very strong support. It is very likely that from this point onwards, the crude prices may start moving upwards once again.... but it is only a probability as seen now.

    On 12th Aug 08, the Spot Nifty reached its recent high around 4650. Considering the up move of the US markets to end the last week that the Indian markets may open upwards on Monday. Every upward move of the market could be used to short in F&O as the probability of the market moving downwards again is very strong.

    The ultimate target for Spot Nifty, in my opinion, still lies around 3235-3300 region, but I could be wrong. One has to note that I am talking about the ultimate target, and not for tomorrow or next week or next month. Again in all the probabilities, that this target for Nifty may be reached in the last week of Oct 2008, that coincides with Diwali.

    That is when the markets may turn Investor friendly, and one must look ahead now to choose the scrips of ones own choice and also to keep the cash ready, so that once the markets bottom out, that one could start investing, as the Bull market is expected to get back on track.

    One can then starting hoping for the best Diwali in recent times, to change the mood from the Bear market back to Bull market. This is a what I call a wishful thinking.


    Cheers!
    SS
     
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  2. chintan786

    chintan786 Well-Known Member

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    Hi SS.....Hope u are not getting bore at home.......Do u have any postions in Nifty.. crude..... or is there something on which u are sure... i mean .. probability = 100%.......if yes then plz post it.. if no .. then plz delete this crap from here...

    chintan786
     
  3. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    I was short all along in Nifty Futures and Calls, but I squared off on Thursday as I expected a little upward move in the US markets on the LONG weekend.. And if that was to happen, I guessed that on Monday, Indian markets may [repeat may] open upwards.

    US markets were in the green on Thu & Fri. So part of my anticipation was correct. Now, if the Indian markets also open up on Monday, then I can short at a higher level than the level at which I squared off on Thurday. That would be beneficial. :)

    I prefer providing Food for Thought. One needs to use one's on view points, anticiaption, ability and money, to play the stock markets, so that one earns on one's own merits, and that too repeatedly ! :)

    Hope your question gets answered.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2008
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  4. vjmbcfa

    vjmbcfa New Member

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    Hii SS thanks posting your views but I feel 3300 is a lill too harsh :) again I am not an expert but strongly feel (based on analysis and sentiments) 3800 will not be taken away, but yes there is some downside coming in the days to follow...... looking forward for ur analysis and suggestions.

    Till then profitable trading....
     
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  5. jaggi49B

    jaggi49B New Member

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    Hi SS,
    Nifty had a downward move from 5300 to 3800 in July (about 1500 pts). We then had an upward spike that went upto 4620 (about 820 pts). The fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1500 pts is roughly also in the same range. So if we accept that this was a strong Bear Market rally which has peaked, then we are in for a strong downmove, in steps of course. Perhaps 2 or 3 steps. The -ves are all there 12.44% inflation, bad political scene, a definite industrial slowdown, increase in repo rate and probably CRR by RBI and consequent increase in interest rate by Banks. The only +ve so far is the slight softening of crude oil price - who knows it may spike again sometime this week. So my friends please be careful of any slight upmove of the Nifty - it will only encourage the savvy players to short the market and be sure the indication will be the Nifty Futures turning to a discount from the present premium of 6.85 pts. Watch out for 18 Aug - it could see a big downmove in the post 12PM session. As always - the market never ceases to surprise so best of luck to us all.
     
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  6. BUZZ

    BUZZ Member

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    Future detail to read

    Hi Guys,
    Can you refer any form or threads to read about investing in futures?
    I would like to read before i start investing in futures.


    I understand a little bit is mentioned in BSE or NSE site.. but not in a simple way..
    Please let me know if anyone hv the great links

    Cheers!
    Buzz
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2008
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  7. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    I am attaching a weekly chart for Spot Nifty. If one considers the complete rise for the Nifty upto 6357 level, then it has to be corretced by 61.8% before resuming it's upward journey.

    The 61.8% comes lttle below 3300 for the entire period.

    And if we study the recent charts [not attached] then this figure gets refined to 3235 for Nifty.

    Therefore, I prefer to set the probability of the Nifty bottom in the range 3235-3300. It is only after bottoming out of Nifty, that we shall know the susequent trends.

    Theoratically, it would be better to watch the first leg of THAT fresh trend, and then decide about the subsequent action to be taken. However, as Nifty would have bottomed out, even if it decides to remain sideways for some time it shall NOT be going down any further.

    And hence the investment made, if any, shall NOT get devalued. Which is my primary criteria to start investing, once the Nifty is below 3300.

    One possibility is the fast and sharp recovery of Nifty, once it bottoms out. Catching it may become very very difficult.

    These are the probabilities that I find.... but I could be wrong. Members are advised to carry out additional studies, before deciding to invest.

    But as pointed out earlier, one can now start short listing the scrips for investment, and arranging for the money to be invested.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2008
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  8. praveen taneja

    praveen taneja Well-Known Member

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    quite fightening n horry fying sir pls instead of stoping it at 3250 stop it near 4300:confused::confused:
     
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  9. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    There is nothing horrifying. There is no trending either. If some scrip moves from 10 to 110, then the rise is [110-10=] 100 points.

    The 61.8% correction will take it down by 61.8 points from the top of 110 to reach around [110-61.8] = 42.2 level

    There is no trending. Pure maths.

    And for a trader, whether the market goes up or down, no difference is felt. It is the Investor should always be careful for investing in a market that is going up.

    That is why the bottoming of the Nifty becomes all the more Important.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
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  10. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    I wonder.... as how the people can still advise buying Nifty futures. If one takes a look at the Nifty weekly chart, one sees a clear down trend. The 10 days EMA is also sloping downwards.

    Like I said earlier, the Nifty has to cross 4420, 4320, 4220, 4120 and 4000 to head towards it's target below 3300, and this shall be done in form of multiple waves.

    Without having reached it's ultimate target, any move upwards is for shorting in the future market, and definately NOT for buying as an investor.

    All my views based on the charts as I understand them, and I could be wrong.

    Ceers!
    SS
     
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