Food for Thought........!

Discussion in 'Derivatives' started by S S, Aug 16, 2008.

  1. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    With the money flooded by the US Govt, we all saw the world markets going sky-high FOLLOWED BY the US markets, on Friday 19th Sept 2008.

    Just think. Had you received a large sum as an advance, what would you do? Would you invest it for long term? ....Nah!

    One would rather think about trading to make a fast buck.

    That's what we see currently. All stock markets UP. Gold UP. Crude UP. The level of Nonsense by all business TV channels UP.

    This all shall take most of the markets UP on Monday 22nd Sept.... atleast to start with, followed by correction due to profit booking. I would NOT be surprised if the markets close on Monday in RED.

    That's one probablity, and I could be wrong to the extent of one day. Which means that if the markets go up and remain up on Monday, the above action shall take place on Tuesday 23rd Sept.

    And all along during 2008 that most of the business TV channels, and most of the experts appearing on these channels... Indian, American, European, whatever..., talked about Higher Valuation of Indian stocks, sensex and the markets in General.

    BUxxSHxx!

    No one talked about the Lehman brothers, Morgan stanley, AIG and others, and the sky-high BUxxSHxx valuation done for these companies by these experts.

    Even today, no one will admit one's mistake. And because no mistake is admitted, it amounts to no mistake occaring, and hence no correction of the mistake.

    Do not be surprised, that even after today such experts keep talking about HIGH VALUATIONS for Indian markets. Be sure that such people either know nothing, or are purposely mis-guiding the viewers, or both.

    But these all are my thoughts, and I could be wrong. Everyone has thinking power that one must use. :)

    Cheers and Good Luck.
    SS
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2008
  2. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Bingo.......!

    The Indian markets did oblige and followed the chart directions, as I see them.

    Now, tonight, the Dow Jones should come down and halt just above the 10 DEMA level, which is around 11190, but may get pushed out a little, as DJ falls.

    Asian markets, then may show a mixed scenario tomorrow. But that, is not urgent.

    I expect the Nifty to still get pushed as low as possible tomorrow, so that sufficient recovery may commence as the settlement time approaches.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
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  3. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Re-posting my mesage dated 3rd Sept 2008.

    Mathematics and charts.... Kamaal ki cheese hai.

    Nothing more logical. But then, one should be good at maths and should understand the charts as well.

    Who cares....? In most of the other threads, I find most of the people refusing to use their own thinking power and prefer just drifting behind the others, who give tips every now and then.

    And when the tips fail to click, blame the guys who gave the tips.

    Actual culpretes are the ones who refuse to think and prefere drifting behind others for making few fast bucks and loose heavily later.

    I wonder, if God could save these guys, even if he wanted to :)

    Cheers!
    SS
     
  4. columbus

    columbus Well-Known Member

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    Well said.[​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2008
    bikashkumar11 and S S like this.
  5. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    I am attaching the chart for Spot Nifty, as at the end of the today, 24th Sep 08.

    The Green and Blue lines are for 200 days EMA and 100 days EMA respectively. On 18th Jun 08, the 100 DEMA Blue line crossed the 200 DEMA Green line to come under it, and since then the gap in the two lines has been increasing. [The position of the crossover is shown by arrow on left top corner.]

    And since 18th Jun 08, till date, I wonder as to how anyone can sill be hopeful for the current market to be a Bull market :(

    The current channel on the right side speaks for itself. And considering the overall scenario, Nifty is less likely to get out of the channel in the near future... my opinion and I could be wrong!

    Therefore, for every rise, I see an opportunity for shorting.

    A clever trader always -

    Covers the longs while shorting and
    Covers the shorts and goes long
    while maintaining the stoplosses, as pre-planned.

    Long ago, as a college student, I was told by the department head of maths, that I should not carry any books to the annual exam hall. I should also not look into any chance for getting 'Last minute tips'

    If you have studied well all along, looking into books prior to exam, shall make no difference and
    If you have NOT studied all along, looking into books prior to exam, shall make no difference either.

    That's what he told me. Presently, it is an everyday exam for trading successfully everytime, everyday.

    One must study all the chart every morning for the previous day's Nifty-European markets-US markets, and then that day's position for the Asian markets and the Nifty Future level in singapore market..... all well before the Indian markets open.

    That's the home work.

    If one does it sincerely, one does NOT need to know the pivots, supports, etc, etc,etc. One gets a good idea about various levels for Nifty for that day, which cannot be wiped off during the day, and hence help one trade as desired.

    So friends, PLEASE do your homework, and ignore tips.

    Choose the indicators that you are comfortable with. Do NOT use something you are NOT comfortable with, just because someone else is using them and someone else is comfortable with them.

    I do NOT trade in different sectors/scrips even if they give better returns. That is because more the parameters, more is the study needed to be sure of oneself. Only those NOT sure loose money, so I avoid that part.

    Depending upon the study and actual movement of Nifty, that I decide the number of lots to be traded. That is the only change.

    But that is what I am comfortable with, and that is NO reason for me to recommend it to you :)

    Cheers and Good Luck!
    SS
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2008
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  6. debdeeps

    debdeeps Active Member

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    As always SS great going. Thanks,
     

  7. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Debdeep for your kind words. One always needs such and similar encouraging words.

    I made a small mistake in my previous message, though.

    While I said that I only study the Nifty, I meant for the Indian markets. To get the whole picture, the fluctuations in all th world markets, Stocks, commodities, crude, forex,.... everything needs to be considered.

    But I have a habit of pulling myself out of the whole picture, and then take a look to get various tangential ideas.

    Not that all these ideas get effected in the immediate future, but they are a strong possibility.

    And my purpose here is to provide food for thoughts to all those, who use their thinking power.

    Here is some fresh abstract thought that cropped up in my mind after watching some TV channel :


    US seems to have a liquidity crunch. That’s why there is no confidence in the US markets, as per a news item on some TV channel.

    Had this been a case with any other country, the US would have promptly suggested a solution : Devaluation of the currency of that country.

    But now that the problem is with the US itself, the usual double standard follower country cannot dare spelling it out for itself.

    And this is an un-imaginable news, if and when this happens. I am sure that hardly anyone has ever thought about it.

    So, if this actually happens, and the US $ gets devalued, the whole world shall be flabbergasted.

    What shall be the reaction of various countries and the markets there in …?

    Unthinkable.

    But if I can think of this, so shall be many others.

    Let’s hope for the best and also hope that it is not on immediate agenda for the US.

    Cheers!
     
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  8. nagendra_gb

    nagendra_gb Active Member

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    Friend waiting for you commentry for today... some how feels very interesting when reading..
     
  9. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, but....Give me some time buddy.

    With the sun outage all the details are available late :(

    Thanks again.
    Cheers & Good Luck! :)
    SS
     
  10. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    I am attaching two charts for Spot Nifty. One as at the close on today, 25th Sep 08, and the other a weekly chart at todays close.

    To make my point clear, I will start with the weekly chart.

    The Indigo coloured two lines are the Bollinger bands [BB]. The Red coloured line is 10 days EMA. Mostly the candles appear to be between the Red and Indigo lines, either above or below the Red line.

    In Jan 2008, the weekly candles are above the 10 DEMA line, almost touching the upper BB line. But there after, the picture has changed as the markets have gone into Bear phase.

    Continuously, week after week, that these weekly candles are always below the 10 DEMA Red line and above the lower BB line, with some exceptions.

    The Red 10 DEMA line is also continuously sloping downwards.

    With the candle near the Red 10 DEMA line, both the BB lines contract and come near, like it is happening now. This means that within a week or thereafter, that the candles shall move away from the Red line and towards the BB line. But which one? Upper or Lower?

    If the dotted line channel is NOT to be ignored, then the candle has to move towards the lower BB line, which means more fall for the market, unless the candle crosses the channel and stays above it for a reasonable time.

    The High for the current weeks candle is 4303. So one can make ones opinion about the candle crossing 4303 in tomorrows session :)

    Next week is pre-election week for the US, and I do NOT expect a major move for US markets, and therefore, most of the world markets are also likely to remain range bound, but simultaneously drifting down a little.

    On daily charts, I find 10 DEMA at around 4169. Assuming markets move up tomorrow, say by 60 points, still shall NOT cross the 10 DEMA line, which shall also be moving up with the upward movement of Nifty. Then the channel does NOT get challanged.

    In short, in spite of the US markets having opened in the Green today, I do NOT expect the Indian markets to match the raise that the US markets may gain today, if they remain and close in green.

    Today is NOT the weekend for US markets, but tomorrow is for our markets. So there will be behavioural changes.

    These are all my opinions, and I still feel that there is still a lot of time for the Indian markets to consider an upward turn. But I could be wrong.

    Cheers. Good Luck !
    SS
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2008
    debdeeps and nagendra_gb like this.
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