Food for Thought........!

S S

Well-Known Member
#31
Hi!

There is nothing much to be said, but it would be good to look back and summerise.

The Nifty Weekly chart is always helpful to indicate the trend for the near future.... which does NOT mean the next hour or next day :)

The important lines are the Red 10 week EMA line and the two Indigo coloured lines for the Bollinger Bands [BB]

On the extreme left side of the chart, we see the BB very near, with the weekly candles between the Red 10 EMA line and upper BB line. And as the weeks progress, the candles keep moving up that make the BB widen.

And when the 'all time high' was reached in Jan 08, and the steep fall hereafter, that the candles have come down, below the Red 10 EMA line. During end May-early June, the candles make an attempt to go above the Red line. This is when the BB are close and the markets are consolidating.

Thereafter, as the candles again fall below the Red 10 EMA line, BB widen to take the markts down in July.

Once again the BB start coming near and markets start consolidating, with the candles still below Red 10 EMA line.

That is the current position. The daily chart appears to be in accordance with the same.

Obviously, it means that the consolidation is in process and may continue for atleast one more week.

Widening of BB is expected to take place there after, which means that the candles are likely to have an up move or a down move.

Considering the pattern and the slope of various lines, the trend still appears downwards. Therefore, the recent low of around 3800 is less likely to be broken in the current week, but a week thereafter, the whole candle may go below 3800.

As I have already said earlier, the markets may succeed in reaching the ultimate target of 3235-3300 for Nifty just prior to Diwali, so that Diwali brings in good investment opportunities to all of us. This may turn-up as a wishful thinking, if the markets do NOT reach their lows in Oct 08, but delay the same by few more weeks/months.

This all, is as per my opinion and thoughts, but I could be wrong. As usual, it is a food for thoughts for all thinkers, who are expected to use their thinking power to arrive at a decision, suitable for their health, and also that of their finances ;)

Cheers and Good Luck!
SS
 
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devangan123

Well-Known Member
#32
Dear S.S.

Very Nice Analysis , thanks for this useful piece of information , Keep it up, but in my view this ultimate target of 3235 -3300 may not come so soon , Reason is Monthly charts .

It may take at least 2-4 months to achieve this ultimate target, Whenever Nifty will break its previous low of 3790-3800 it will get support near to 3500 for sure which is 50 Monthly SMA of nifty spot. Than for period of 2-3 months nifty may remain range bound for 3500 - 4000 and only after that only it will break 3500 and go for its ultimate target.

Devan
 
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S S

Well-Known Member
#33
Devan, I agree.

I have already said that ...

I could be wrong :)
It is a wishful thinking for the markets to bottom out in Oct 08, so that we can once again start investing fast.

In reality, I was lucky to have got out of the market as an investor in Jan-Fen 2008. But as I am NOT a full time professional trader, I did NOT use all my proceeds from the sale of stocks for trading.

In fact, I find that I am using less than 2% in form of margin money, and would like to invest the rest at a proper time.... so the wishful thinking.

The bottoming out is likely to be in 2008 itself from the time analysis of the weekly charts, after the H&S formation on most of the world indices, including Dow, Nifty, Sensex, and others. And therefore, almost all the markets are likely to bottom out in a stretch of period common to all.

But to be in stock markets, one has to be patient.... and let's hope that "Sabre Ka Phal Mitha Milega".... provided that, we catch the near bottom and invest :)

Cheers!
SS
 

S S

Well-Known Member
#34
On 6th Sept 2008, I had written, and I quote -

The sub-wave iii [after the sub-wave ii appearing last in the chart] is expected to try for the recent low of 3790 of 18th July, or may get settled at 127.2% level of about 3900.

The sub-wave iv thereafter, is expected to remain well below the level of sub-wave i , which is 4230. The target could be 4200.

In such a case, the sub-wave v may turn out to be a diagonal triangle having 3235 as the target.

Once this gets achieved, the markets shall very quickly shoot up to the level of sub-wave 4 [expected in 4200 region]
Likewise, the Nifty did not only touch 3900, but went below to a low of 3800 on 18th Sep 08, only to get rebound to the level of a high above 4300 on 22nd Sep 08.

And now, it has once again broken the recent low of 3800 and has achieved a new low today.

But like I said yesterday, I expect the whole of the weekly candle for the next week below the 3800 level. It automatically means that this week's close shall be around 3800 or may even be little below it.

And for that to happen, during the balance two sessions of this week, the Nifty shall have to rise up and then go down.

This can either happen tomorrow 30th Sep 08 or on the Friday 3rd Oct 08 session.

Logically, the markets may rise tomorrow, and the profit booking on Friday may bring them down again.

So, tomorrow appears to be the day of shorting once again.

All of the above, is as viewed by me, and is in my opinion, which could be wrong. I am NOT recommending anything to anyone. .... except off course to think and take appropriate decisions :)

Cheers and Good Luck!
SS
 

devangan123

Well-Known Member
#35
And for that to happen, during the balance two sessions of this week, the Nifty shall have to rise up and then go down.

This can either happen tomorrow 30th Sep 08 or on the Friday 3rd Oct 08 session.

Logically, the markets may rise tomorrow, and the profit booking on Friday may bring them down again.


SS
do we have only 2 sessions remaining in this week , as per schedule their is holiday on Thursday only and in that case we have 3 sessions left
 

S S

Well-Known Member
#36
Hi!

The wednessay 1st Oct is bank holiday on account of Id. I presumed that it would be a holiday for the stock exchanges too. But I could be wrong :)

The Nasdaq was is a lot of hurry to collapse yesterday, and so were the Dow and S&P 500 for the US markets. Nifty futures are down by 150 points on the Singapore exchange today morning. What a fall. This week's candle is going to be the longest one for almost all indices, and Nifty will NOT be an exception.

But I still feel that the week would end in the viscinity of 3800 for Nifty.

And when I first wrote about the Nifty target of 3235 in Feb-Mar 2008 [in some other forum], one can imagine the kind of messages I must have got in return, because people were then setting up a target of 5500 and above for Nifty, that was never reached. Scene on Traderji was no different then, but for some reasons, I was NOT posting messages here.... and I do NOT know, how long I will continue.

The Green dot [telling me that I am on distinguished road] keeps bugging me. I would rather prefer a total absence of any such indication in my case.... this is a request to the moderators.
I am fully aware of the place I am at, and need no recognition and/or confirmation, please!

To summerise.... with wishful thinking..... that possibly the Nifty bottoms out around Diwali, and after Diwali we are again on a consolidation but with an Up trend.... Good wishes to all on this first day of Navratri.

Cheers!
SS
 

praveen taneja

Well-Known Member
#37
World Markets : Nasdaq down -9.14% & Dow Jones down -6.98 - The US stock market posted is worst one-day percent decline in 21 years after the House of Representatives rejected the $700 billion financial relief plan - The failure of the bailout package in Congress literally dropped jaws on Wall Street and triggered a historic selloff -- including a terrifying decline of nearly 500 points in mere minutes as the vote took place, the closest thing to panic the stock market has seen in years - The Dow Jones industrial average lost 777 points Monday, its biggest single-day fall ever, easily beating the 684 points it lost on the first day of trading after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
 

S S

Well-Known Member
#38
Hi!

People reading my last message must have wondered. With such a debacle in the US markets yesterday, and with most of the Asian markets opening in the red today well before the Indian markets had opened, who is this IDIOT that is still talking about the week closing of 3800 for the Nifty. [The person referred to being none other than me :)]

Especially when the closing yesterday was at 3850 and Nifty futures were trading 125-150 points below it today morning at Singapore stock exchange. Some had even started considering 3600 by the weekend.

And if the same people have seen today's recovery for the US markets, after Nifty had gain excessively during today's session, they would be wondering the other way round.... what 3800....? Nifty shall now go to 4000-4400-5000-6000-8000.......!

That is what I call BS [short for BUxxSHxx]. A total baseless dream-wishing. And almost 90% of the messages posted in this forum do the same. I may be wrong about the percentage... it could be more :)))))

In my opinion, the number of messages posted does NOT count [and I find here a difference of opinion, possibly with the moderators themselves]

I feel that the number of messages could be low, but each should be worth reading.

I would humbly like to point out that even today some new person starts reading this thread from the first message onwards, it would make sense to that person, and he/she would learn something which they already knew, but was NOT so evident to them.

Nothing personal. My opinion. I could be wrong :)

Cheers!
SS
 

devangan123

Well-Known Member
#39
Hi!



And if the same people have seen today's recovery for the US markets, after Nifty had gain excessively during today's session, they would be wondering the other way round.... what 3800....? Nifty shall now go to 4000-4400-5000-6000-8000.......!

That is what I call BS [short for BUxxSHxx]. A total baseless dream-wishing. And almost 90% of the messages posted in this forum do the same. I may be wrong about the percentage... it could be more :)))))

In my opinion, the number of messages posted does NOT count [and I find here a difference of opinion, possibly with the moderators themselves]


Cheers!
SS

Does not matter how good some one's analysis are , but a member or boarder should not think that he is the most smartest guy on this earth or at this site , Well difference in some other thread where you pointed out some bullish talks going on is that no body is boss out here , every one respect each others view and learns from each other and in my view that is the sole objective of this forum

Nobody is perfect here, not even moderators they are also learning and gaining by teaching others (Although % of gaining may be less for teachers and high for student like me ). This is by default goodness of sharing and teaching.

Please do not try to say that others are fool

Devan
 

S S

Well-Known Member
#40
Does not matter how good some one's analysis are , but a member or boarder should not think that he is the most smartest guy on this earth or at this site , Well difference in some other thread where you pointed out some bullish talks going on is that no body is boss out here , every one respect each others view and learns from each other and in my view that is the sole objective of this forum

Nobody is perfect here, not even moderators they are also learning and gaining by teaching others (Although % of gaining may be less for teachers and high for student like me ). This is by default goodness of sharing and teaching.

Please do not try to say that others are fool

Devan

You seem to have picked up a selective view and I don't blame you.

First... I NEVER said others are fools.... NEVER even hinted or indicated. I always said "This is my opinion and I could be wrong" Therefore, your argument does NOT have a base.

Second... I said that the ratings given are for the number of messages and NOT the contents therein. YOU cannot reply, unless you are the moderator. They should comment to point out that I am wrong and how. Or else, my argument stands.

Three... SS is an assumed name. My real name's initias do NOT even have a single S, leave aside double S. So, this is NOT for a cheap popularity like most of the others. The EMail is also to keep my real identity away from unwanted messages in the Inbox of my defalt EMail. My messages are to make people think and take correct decisions, which shall help them for life, than following some tips and hints available under othe threads.

Although I became a member in Dec 2005, I was NOT effectively posting in this forum till recently.

Who knows, I may even stop doing so, for obvious reasons.

Lastly.... I am a great admirer of RNE, and I have not even iota of his intelligence. But tomorrow, if RNE starts writing in this forum under an assumed name, he would also go through similar ratings and replies. How Ironic. One would be heavily insulting RNE. Who would be then considering others fools?

Now don't ask who is RNE :)

Think man think! And although this has come up as an un-planned posting, I strongly feel that for the week ending 17th Oct, the Nifty would have gone below 3600.... my opinion and I could be wrong. Supporting details shall be given over the weekend posting, till then everyone can THINK!

Cheers and Good Luck!
SS
 

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