Food for Thought........!

[columbus]

I was expecting the target for the recovery to 'iv' in the chart attached to above message. I have drawn the two horizontal lines at 'iv' an '(iv)'

'(iv) is around 3250 and with the double bottom, this should get passed with or without problem. But then.... like I said, if for some reason, a negative reaction occures, then the recent bottom below 2300 may get re-tested.

This is NOT going to happpen tomorrow... so staying long/short cannot be commented upon.

Probability of going above 3250 appears to be higher, but I could be wrong. I would not like to advice anything about being long/short in either Puts or Calls

The long term view has been to my help during the bear market. I knew that even if market recovers, I was NOT worried about shorts in futures, because I was sure to add more at approprate times.

But with the turning of the markets, I would restrain from commenting, unless the turning is confirmed. As of now, with the posibility of markets turning downwards [however less may be this ossibility] even the temperory end of bear market is NOT confirmed.

And with the large swings that we get everyday, it would be appropriate for using them to make money each day, rather than expecting a high returns and carrying forward the open trade....

My view and I could be wrong.
I prefer accepting that I could be wrong, than giving others a chance to say I am/was wrong.
Cheers!

The RSI figure is 49.If we want the call the market 'Mildly Bullish' it
should cross the figure 50.

 

[S S]

Hi!

While we are all enjoying the daily volatility and playing it for ones good in day trading, the picture does not seem to be encouraging for medium and long term.

After spending a week or so above the 10 days EMA line, that the DJ has once again come down. Some indicators have shown a buy during last two days of trading, but the DJ may or may not rise on Monday.

And likewise, all the Asian and European markets also have followed, staying below the 10 DEMA line.

And so long as this picture remains and the candles do not start remaining above the 10DEMA line, that the markets shall continue with the down trend.

But there is an interesting thing to note, though.

Be it the stock markets or the commodities or the crude, traders are shorting the concerned futures left, right and centre. And covering them later by booking appropriate profits.

These profits are withdrawn to use them for non-trading personal/domestic purposes, and the amount invested, that is the margin money, is getting reduced day by day.

And with THIS MINDSET, no one is even willing to increase the chances by pumping in more margin money which is also getting difficult due to the liquidity crunch.

Therefore, so long the liquidity crunch continues in any and every markets mentioned above, the trend shall continue to be downwards with an exception of daily trading, where one is NOT required to keep large margin money in ones ledger balances.

This . also is a bubble of a different type.. and some day, many large traders shall suddenly find it difficult to trade due to insufficient margin money. As they wont be left with a heart to transfer more cash to the trading account.

That would be a sign of traders pulling out to some extent and the real consolidation shall start thereafter.

Ignoring the original mistake of assuming the current market correction only for the Bull run during this century, the recent bottom cold be iii of the five wave down structure. And this structure being a zigzag, it would be followed by a flat of one of the three types. Whichever is the type of the flat, the markets shall remain range bound and that would be the consolidation.

Prior to the consolidation, the v of the zigzag could be in line with the recent bottom, or even above it, if it is a truncated waveform. Or else, it would go down, when the relation between i and v could be similar.

That is why, I get a feeling that the wave v could be a truncated wave, that may reach at the most upto the recent bottom of around 2250.

However, we could keep an eye on the trend of the stock markets and the crude prices, and so long as the trend remains almost the same, then the bottom re-testing is not very far off.

And after the bottom testing shall be the flat consolidation with much lesser volatility, when all those used to current volatility for day trading, shall start getting converted to the positional traders.

Thats what I feel and I could be wrong.
Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

Today's candle with a long lower wick may result in either a doji tomorrow, or better ... the market staying in Green tomorrow.

And for this to happen, today the Dow should have either of the three possibilities... candle with larger lower wick, doji or staying in Green.

The upper dotted black line [in the chart of the previous message] shall be the resistance line for Nifty for next few days.

Another thing which crossed my mind, was the continous falling of the Crude prices. Countries like Brazil, who used Ethenol to keep the Crude Import down, may NOT do so this time, and instead may use the sugarcane exclusively for sugar production.

This shall bring a large amount of sugar in the world markts, and evenif the Indian Govt decides to give incentives to Indian Sugar companies, they may not be able to compete with the prevailing price in the world market.

The Sugar companies, who are already down, may once again find it difficult to sell all the production in Indian markets and once again the price of sugar as a commodity may fall very drastically, leading to another fall in the sugar stock prices.

Cheers!

 

[S S]

Hi!

It was 11 p.m. yesterday, and I was watching Dow.... slowly changing itself to fianally reach the Doji mark. I was happy ... only for minutes, as it fell sharply.... and today's market movement got clear to me.

And by 11 p.m., I also got to know why terrorism is increasing in India. Deve Gauda's JDS had blocked all he roads of North Bangalore. Two of my family members, who had left office after 6-30 p.m. were yet to reach home, and I was waiting.

Trafiic police proved useless. Instead of controlling the traffice to make it move, they had put obstructions in un-concened roads, making more vehicles to get stranded..

The FM Radio channels were running in each of the cars stranded, and people from those channels were running on the roads to provide free biscuits and water to stranded commuters. No Nice.

School-busses were stranded. Kids who ususally reached home by 5.30 p.m. had NOT reached till 8 p.m.

Ambulances were stranded... and I realised that if someone dies due to JDS rally blocking the traffic, his relatives may turn their back to law and become terrorists to take revange.

My only point is that I sympathise with such people and if at all they want their revenge, it should be against the politicians who are nuissance to general public, and NOT against general public itself.

And this show of strength was using paid party-workers from outside Bangalore, when JDS is NOT in power in Karnataka. Hopefully, this party is kept out forever, as no one wants more nuissance.

Mera Bharat Mahan.

 

[nagendra_gb]

Boss you know one thing yesterday there were no KSRTC bus from all the rural villages.. all busses were taken to his meetings... and there was no announcements.. i left my native at 5 in morning and reached office at 12 and my native is just 100 kms from bangalore...

 

[terminator_123]

Hi!

It was 11 p.m. yesterday, and I was watching Dow.... slowly changing itself to fianally reach the Doji mark. I was happy ... only for minutes, as it fell sharply.... and today's market movement got clear to me.

And by 11 p.m., I also got to know why terrorism is increasing in India. Deve Gauda's JDS had blocked all he roads of North Bangalore. Two of my family members, who had left office after 6-30 p.m. were yet to reach home, and I was waiting.

Trafiic police proved useless. Instead of controlling the traffice to make it move, they had put obstructions in un-concened roads, making more vehicles to get stranded..

The FM Radio channels were running in each of the cars stranded, and people from those channels were running on the roads to provide free biscuits and water to stranded commuters. No Nice.

School-busses were stranded. Kids who ususally reached home by 5.30 p.m. had NOT reached till 8 p.m.

Ambulances were stranded... and I realised that if someone dies due to JDS rally blocking the traffic, his relatives may turn their back to law and become terrorists to take revange.

My only point is that I sympathise with such people and if at all they want their revenge, it should be against the politicians who are nuissance to general public, and NOT against general public itself.

And this show of strength was using paid party-workers from outside Bangalore, when JDS is NOT in power in Karnataka. Hopefully, this party is kept out forever, as no one wants more nuissance.

Mera Bharat Mahan.

Looks like Mr Gowda just woke up from his sleep after the elections are over... Good thing that they got screwed in elections.. otherwise it wd have been five more years of backwardness... I hope they wd abolish cast someday...

 

[S S]

Personally I have nothing against either Gawda or the JDS. I hate all political parties and politicians alike, because they all are nothing but nuissance to the society in general.

Worst enemy of Indian voters is the 'The Election Commission'

It is always said that we all have 'A Sectret Ballot' system. BUxxSHxx.

There is one rule, known as 'Rule O 49'

As per this rule, if the voter finds that all the candidates are useless, and although he wishes to excercise his voting right, he does not wish to give his vote to anyone of the candidates.... it is possible.

But in such a case, the voter must approach the Polling Officer, and make that entry in the separate register, supposed to be available for this purpose.

It is evident, that when anyone approaches the Polling Officer for voting under 'Rule O 49' .... it does NOT remain a secret ballot any more. Therefore, it is the Election Commission, who needs to incorporate this provision in the ballot paper itself, which it has been consistantly failing to do so.

So, once again, we can only say.... Mera Bharat Mahan...!

 

[columbus]

Personally I have nothing against either Gawda or the JDS. I hate all political parties and politicians alike, because they all are nothing but nuissance to the society in general.

Worst enemy of Indian voters is the 'The Election Commission'

It is always said that we all have 'A Sectret Ballot' system. BUxxSHxx.

There is one rule, known as 'Rule O 49'

As per this rule, if the voter finds that all the candidates are useless, and although he wishes to excercise his voting right, he does not wish to give his vote to anyone of the candidates.... it is possible.

But in such a case, the voter must approach the Polling Officer, and make that entry in the separate register, supposed to be available for this purpose.

It is evident, that when anyone approaches the Polling Officer for voting under 'Rule O 49' .... it does NOT remain a secret ballot any more. Therefore, it is the Election Commission, who needs to incorporate this provision in the ballot paper itself, which it has been consistantly failing to do so.

So, once again, we can only say.... Mera Bharat Mahan...!

In our Ballot Papers we do not find a NULL.That is ,if a person wants to
exercise his voting and do not find ANY candidates worth to be voted then
he use the option NULL.Perhaps our policy makers are worried that
at many places NULL outsmarting the real candidates.

 

[pkamalesh]

Hi SS.....Hope u are not getting bore at home.......Do u have any postions in Nifty.. crude..... or is there something on which u are sure... i mean .. probability = 100%.......if yes then plz post it.. if no .. then plz delete this crap from here...

chintan786

Chitan....a rather harsh reply for a honest attempt....

 

[S S]

Chitan....a rather harsh reply for a honest attempt....

Kammo dear....
good attempt ...
to find why I have NOT posted in is thread for long, or may be to instigate me
However........!

I would rather carry on with my comments....

US$ started strengthening against the Rupee, which to some extent was the sign for FII category to sell in the market, as the markets fell during the initial days of last week.

The daily EOD chart for DJ shows many interesting points, such as –

- The candles for the last two sessions are almost in a double bottom formation, at a level below the recent lows.

- The Indigo coloured Bollinger Bands are not only inside the yellow Keltner Bands, but have been running almost parallel, showing it’s range bound movement.

- The candles are bellow the 10 days EMA Red line, and almost at a level 20% below the Blue coloured 100 days EMA line.

In comparison, we find on the daily Spot Nifty Chart –

- There is no double bottom, but BBs have commenced their horizontal parallel run inside the KBs.

- The candles are below 10DEMA and at a level 28% below 100 DEMA line.


US $ rate has yet to get corrected to 44-45 level, which should happen now, indicating the inflow of funds, that should move the candles towards 10 DEMA and finally to cross it. But the BBs are likely to continue their horizontal consolidation run.

Thursday’s low for DJ was lower than the low of Oct 08, but for Nifty it was NOT. This makes me feel that…. We are almost there…. When the markets are about to turn for a prolonged consolidation.

The initial range may be limited to 3240, the recent high of 5th Nov…. and there after, it may shift upwards to 3240-4300 range.

While there appears to be a chance of touching the recent low around 2250, there also appears to be a chance that markets moving up for last two session may carry their strong up move…. And in my opinion, the second probability is stronger.

But unless the consolidation in the range below 3240 completes and the consolidation starts above 3300, that the investor shall have to stay out. And like I said earlier, the day traders also shall have to get converted slowly to positional traders, as the intra-day volatility may start reducing…. A sign of change in the market behaviour.

But all these are my opinions and view points, which could be wrong.
Disclaimer get applicable

Cheers!
SS