Technical Analysis for Beginners
- Thread starter veluri1967
- Start date
We have covered so far
Pivot Point Trading
Technical Indicators
Chart Patterns
Murphy's Trading Strategy.
What next?
A simple strategy development based on the knowledge gained so far.
I have a strategy on Simple Moving Average/Exponential Moving Average.
I call it "SMA/EMA Pullback strategy" which I have posted as SMA/EMA A simple Trading Strategy as another thread.
I will post it here after removing any flaws in it.
Happy Dusshera.
veluri1967
Pivot Point Trading
Technical Indicators
Chart Patterns
Murphy's Trading Strategy.
What next?
A simple strategy development based on the knowledge gained so far.
I have a strategy on Simple Moving Average/Exponential Moving Average.
I call it "SMA/EMA Pullback strategy" which I have posted as SMA/EMA A simple Trading Strategy as another thread.
I will post it here after removing any flaws in it.
Happy Dusshera.
veluri1967
Re: Triangle Formations
that was way lengthy post he he
wer u lost friend not seeing many posts from u
I GUESS working on some techniques TO FIGHT THE MARKET HEHE
Triangles are of three types. They are:-
Symmetrical Triangles
Ascending Triangles
Descending Triangles
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
2.Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
3.Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
4.Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
5.Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
6.Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
7.Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
8.Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
9.Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.
Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required.
A large symmetrical triangle over a 5-month period before breaking out on the downside. See the attached chart.
1.The stock declined from 50 in Mar-98 to 22 in Oct-98 before beginning to firm and consolidate. The low at 22 probably was an over-reaction, but the long-term trend was down and established for almost a year.
2.After the first 4 points formed, the lines of the symmetrical triangle were draw. The stock traded within the boundaries for another 2 months to form the last 2 points.
3.After the gap up from point 3 to point 4, volume slowed over the next few months. There was some increase in volume in late June, but the 60-day SMA remained in a downtrend as the pattern took shape.
4.The red square marks the ideal breakout time-span from 50% to 75% of the pattern. The breakout occurred a little over 2 weeks later, but proved valid nonetheless. While it is preferable to have an ideal pattern develop, it is also quite rare.
5.After points 5 and 6 formed, the price action moved to the lower boundary of the pattern. Even at this point, the direction of the breakout was still a guess and its was prudent to wait. The break occurred with an increase in volume and accelerated price decline. Chaikin Money Flow declined past -30% and volume exceeded the 60-day SMA for an extended period.
6.After the decline from 29 1/2 to 25 1/2, the stock rebounded, but failed to reach potential resistance from the apex. The weakness of the reaction rally foreshadowed the sharpness of the decline that followed.
7.The widest point on the pattern extended 10 1/2 points. With a break of support at 29 1/2, the measured decline was estimated to around 19. By drawing a trend line parallel to the upper boundary of the pattern, the extension estimates a decline to around 20.
Ascending Triangle (Continuation)
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount.
2.Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 <gl reaction high>reaction highs<gl> are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them.
3.Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid.
4.Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
5.Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
6.Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this support level before the move begins in earnest.
7.Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. If you will recall, the symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. On the ascending triangle, the horizontal line represents overhead supply that prevents the security from moving past a certain level. It is as if a large sell order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from rising further. Even though the price cannot rise past this level, the reaction lows continue to rise. It is these higher lows that indicate increased buying pressure and give the ascending triangle its bullish bias.
Descending Triangle (Continuation)
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount.
2.Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them.
3.Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid.
4.Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
5.Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
6.Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest.
7.Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, a descending triangle has a definite bearish bias before the actual break. The symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. For the descending triangle, the horizontal line represents demand that prevents the security from declining past a certain level. It is as if a large buy order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from declining further. Even though the price does not decline past this level, the reaction highs continue to decline. It is these lower highs that indicate increased selling pressure and give the descending triangle its bearish bias.
veluri1967
Symmetrical Triangles
Ascending Triangles
Descending Triangles
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
2.Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
3.Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
4.Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
5.Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
6.Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
7.Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
8.Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
9.Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.
Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required.
A large symmetrical triangle over a 5-month period before breaking out on the downside. See the attached chart.
1.The stock declined from 50 in Mar-98 to 22 in Oct-98 before beginning to firm and consolidate. The low at 22 probably was an over-reaction, but the long-term trend was down and established for almost a year.
2.After the first 4 points formed, the lines of the symmetrical triangle were draw. The stock traded within the boundaries for another 2 months to form the last 2 points.
3.After the gap up from point 3 to point 4, volume slowed over the next few months. There was some increase in volume in late June, but the 60-day SMA remained in a downtrend as the pattern took shape.
4.The red square marks the ideal breakout time-span from 50% to 75% of the pattern. The breakout occurred a little over 2 weeks later, but proved valid nonetheless. While it is preferable to have an ideal pattern develop, it is also quite rare.
5.After points 5 and 6 formed, the price action moved to the lower boundary of the pattern. Even at this point, the direction of the breakout was still a guess and its was prudent to wait. The break occurred with an increase in volume and accelerated price decline. Chaikin Money Flow declined past -30% and volume exceeded the 60-day SMA for an extended period.
6.After the decline from 29 1/2 to 25 1/2, the stock rebounded, but failed to reach potential resistance from the apex. The weakness of the reaction rally foreshadowed the sharpness of the decline that followed.
7.The widest point on the pattern extended 10 1/2 points. With a break of support at 29 1/2, the measured decline was estimated to around 19. By drawing a trend line parallel to the upper boundary of the pattern, the extension estimates a decline to around 20.
Ascending Triangle (Continuation)
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount.
2.Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 <gl reaction high>reaction highs<gl> are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them.
3.Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid.
4.Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
5.Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
6.Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this support level before the move begins in earnest.
7.Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. If you will recall, the symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. On the ascending triangle, the horizontal line represents overhead supply that prevents the security from moving past a certain level. It is as if a large sell order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from rising further. Even though the price cannot rise past this level, the reaction lows continue to rise. It is these higher lows that indicate increased buying pressure and give the ascending triangle its bullish bias.
Descending Triangle (Continuation)
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.
Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.
1.Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount.
2.Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them.
3.Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid.
4.Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
5.Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
6.Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest.
7.Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, a descending triangle has a definite bearish bias before the actual break. The symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. For the descending triangle, the horizontal line represents demand that prevents the security from declining past a certain level. It is as if a large buy order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from declining further. Even though the price does not decline past this level, the reaction highs continue to decline. It is these lower highs that indicate increased selling pressure and give the descending triangle its bearish bias.
veluri1967
wer u lost friend not seeing many posts from u
I GUESS working on some techniques TO FIGHT THE MARKET HEHE
Re: Triangle Formations
Yes..Vishal...
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
that was way lengthy post he he
wer u lost friend not seeing many posts from u
I GUESS working on some techniques TO FIGHT THE MARKET HEHE
wer u lost friend not seeing many posts from u
I GUESS working on some techniques TO FIGHT THE MARKET HEHE
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
Re: Triangle Formations
i gave a new setup in my thread which is making some sense to me and with the help of suggestions given my anant sir savant sir pradasam sir it looks to be getting better,
have a look
look fir pidilite ispatind abnuvo and comment
Yes..Vishal...
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
have a look
look fir pidilite ispatind abnuvo and comment
Re: Triangle Formations
Hi veluri.
nice write ups on triangles.:thumb:
next step?
wolf waves or harmonic patterns?
Hi veluri.
nice write ups on triangles.:thumb:
next step?
wolf waves or harmonic patterns?
Yes..Vishal...
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
Since it is thread for beginners.... I donot want to leave any minor thing uncovered. I want this thread to be a reference guide on TA for basics.
Secondly, I am just clueless where to go from here though I have some interesting ideas to work out. Ofccourse i m working on them. You will find them in due course.
veluri1967
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