Trading with PT style

hi Praveen,
Happened to buy spicejet at 56, any views on it

I think it is a good stock but it has been in news recently hence for that reasons I wouldn't prefer it much. Look for other aviation stocks Kingfisher, Jet, Deccan etc they offer a good return especially when economy is rebounding have a longer term time frame and you can expect to double your money.

I disagree on investment in deccan and kingfisher...Jet and spicejet are only companies running in profit as far as atf prices are low ....>How can kingfisher a loss making company will give profit on investment is out of my brains(unless gambling trade done)

Investment is finding good companies and spotting them early. They are going through a bad patch now making a loss but soon that will change. You should not look at historic balance sheet only. Please open your mind to the source of earnings in the future. If spice jet is going to do well Kingfisher too will do well. Their business is more diversified as they operate outside India too. Global economy is staging a stunning turn around. Please check how full the flights are from London to Delhi, Delhi US, Bangalore London etc . How much is kingfisher benefiting from it. The stock is almost close to its all time low, the debt levels are being taken care of by issuing QIPs. Meaning less Interest payments in the future. You are trying to buy a stock which has already run up(Spicejet) Any positive in the long run for aviation industy will make Kingfisher run first. Besides its one of major competitor is almost bankrupt (AirINdia) that means all the routes which Airindia use to operate @ will slowly be swallowed by Kingfisher and Jet.

SpiceJet has been news recently and has run up too much due to it. It is typical of investor getting locket at top and then the stock falls.

Investing is buying a stock which can offer you good value in the long term when everyone is dumping it. If you think kingfisher will have probability of making a loss/ going bankrupt than spicejet then please give reasons for that. Many thanks.

By the way Kingfisher has a lifetime high of 360 and low of 22. Right now risk to reward shows to go long that stock. Kingfisher has improved its business massively than when it reached its peak. It has ordered new Airplanes for which it took debt. It is the only airline company in India to order A380s a life of that airplane will be anywhere between 20-25 years. Most of their planes are new on international route. Less expenditure in the years to come.

SpiceJet is just a domestic play so you are just betting on one economy and its growth where Kingfisher is already its competitor. Happy trading/ Investing.

By the way I think u are the one who believes in gambling a stock with a negative price to book value how the hell can spicejet be attractive? Price to book value of -3.36 Which means if the company goes bankrupt and all the assets are liquidated, the Liabilities exceed Assets by 3.36 times, if the company goes bust assets still fall short by 3.36 times. It also shows spicejet has literally no assets on its balance sheet. However Kingfisher has positive ratio. That means even if company goes bust you get 1/6th of the value back.

I hope it helps and next time when you argue against anything please justify it. Many thanks

Feb 2010:

Private air carrier Kingfisher Airlines today said it has got the approval for flying on seven new international routes.

The new routes are New Delhi - London - New Delhi, New Delhi - Hong Kong - New Delhi, New Delhi - Bangkok - New Delhi, New Delhi - Dubai - New Delhi, Mumbai - Colombo - Mumbai, Mumbai - Bangkok - Mumbai and Mumbai - Dubai - Mumbai.

A Kingfisher statement said that the government has granted traffic rights on these routes. The New Delhi - London and the New Delhi - Hong Kong routes would be operated `soon`, it added.

April 2010:
Kingfisher Airlines Chairman Vijay Mallya said that the domestic aviation industry, which suffered a slump in the wake of the global economic slowdown, has been witnessing a revival with 20% increase in air passenger traffic.

The civil aviation industry, which was impacted to a great extent by the global meltdown in 2008-09, has seen a ``revival, a resurgence post that period, with the passenger traffic increasing by 20%,`` he said at the two-day national convention organised by the Aeronautical Society of India (AeSI) in Bangalore on Saturday.

Mallya, also the President of AeSI, highlighted the urgent need to create Maintenance Repair Overhaul (MRO) centers in the country as several airlines were going to international centers to conduct the MRO tests.

He further called for setting up a National Aeronautics Commission to bring all research and development under one umbrella.

Too good analysis Nimish.
I use to travel regularly between Mumbai-Bangalore.
One thing I observed about Spicejet business model is that they operate with very less frequency on most of routes but the time slot picked up by them are really good. Most of them are at pick hours & not many options available at that time for passengers. Hence flight goes full. They also do not operate much in between smaller cities. This is one of the key reason why they are turned into profit first. As Nimish said correctly occupancy rate is increasing in past few months which should help remainging players to come into profit.

Bro no doubt your analysis is good....But what figures u gave is all comes under balance sheet and the most important figure u see is profit and others doesnt carry weight that much and now they aren't making any

And just making international and domestic trips with more margins doesnt make it more attractive when the company is booking lost...SPicejet with low flights have maximum 73% attendance rather than others

Regarding price to book value ....When did i said the company is going to go bankrupt.....I said presently both deccan and kingfisher wont be a right call because when they are making lost and no where there is any news of them making profit soon(and even banks have 1 lakh rupee guarantee in bankrutpcy but do check whether people even got that money when old banks got busted)

Now coming to spice jet bankruptcy.....If maran wont had bought it it would had been anil ambani...but he himself is short of cash for his own gas based project from where could he had funded it.....Now u see whether maran and anil ambani are so short of vision that they wanted to invest in this company business.....Also i guess what u missing is travel to mumbai-delhi almost cost same as what it cost to neighboring countries

Kingfisher recently had issues even with ATF providing oil companies stopping their stock as they havent paid their dues...
I have nothing against vijay mallya companies....
Instead i hold united spirits shares and have booked 100% profit on it and having rest stock at 0 value but still giving me 1200 per share....

But ofcourse their aviation investment doesnt excite me or in short term i wont bet on them

Again clearing i am just against investing in deccan and kingfisher....Ill bet for jet ..

(i have none of these stocks in my portfolio but will take position at attractive value)

The same logic also applies to why Wilber Ross exited Spice.

Investing and exiting at the right time is Wiber Ross profession and skill, when he has exited, you need to watch out.

shorted nifty lets see

really a brave heart yourself.

added more shorts