Where to get analyst Estimates/Projection for future

docvijay4u

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi,

Recently I read Rule #1 book by Phil's town. In chap 9 he describes method to calculate sticker price(intrinsic value). For calculation following four numbers are needed:

1. Current EPS(TTM EPS) - easily available on many financial websites.
2. Estimated future EPS Growth rate
3. Estimated future PE

4. Minimum acceptable rate of return - 15%

I have very difficult time finding Estimated future EPS growth rate and Estimated future PE. Both are available on MSN Money(US version) but I can't find for Indian stock.

Please help.

Thanks.
 

Mr.G

Well-Known Member
#2
Current and past growth in EPS is used to calculate future EPS.
Estimated PE is calculated in same way. You will have to dig deep in the book and adjust the forecast of various inputs and keep a margin of safety for inputs that are not yet known.

These methods are only suitable for cos with consistent earnings. Dont expect any good valuation from any analyst for a cos with erratic earnings.
 

docvijay4u

Well-Known Member
#3
Thanks Mr.G for reply. I found one website which gives EPS estimates for next three years: 4-traders.com estimates little close to five year projection. Please have a look and let me know your opinion.

Thanks

Current and past growth in EPS is used to calculate future EPS.
Estimated PE is calculated in same way. You will have to dig deep in the book and adjust the forecast of various inputs and keep a margin of safety for inputs that are not yet known.

These methods are only suitable for cos with consistent earnings. Dont expect any good valuation from any analyst for a cos with erratic earnings.
 

Mr.G

Well-Known Member
#4
I have posted a few valuation methods on my thread. I suggest that you rather follow them and not this. Where ever you got it from.
 

Einstein

Well-Known Member
#5
for this i take last 5 year data and calculate each year's growth over the last one, this will give me 4 different growth number and I use average number of that as a company's actual growth rate.

=(New Vlaue-Old Value)/Old Value*100 this will give you percent change in years.

=(value 1st year+value 2nd year+N+N+N+)/5 this will give you average growth rate of that company.

add: use cagr of the company to verify your growth rate , if the difference if higher you might need to adjust your inputs.

==100*((Last Value/Old Value)^(1/Noofyears)-1)


you can use this on EPS but this won't work well where the eps is fluctuating
use this only where you are sure that company's growth is strong
and use lots of common sense.
 
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