Wealth Creation

amitrandive

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#61
Peter's Principle for Annual Reports

All else being equal, invest in the company with the fewest color photographs in the annual report.

Still on austere companies that come to dominate lousy industries, Lynch has nothing but praise for companies that don't waste money. This extends to the annual report as well. Contrast the highly promoted tax dodge schemes with their glossy brochures and extensive advertising with the companies Lynch really likes, dull organizations that grow their profits steadily, unnoticed by Wall Street brokers until the share price has already increased 10 times over.

Some of Lynch's favorite companies don't even have any photos at all in their report, going for a simple black and white text document that just sticks to the facts about expenditure and strategy. Lynch feels as if these companies actually feel themselves employed by the shareholders, not for themselves. Such companies would rather buy back their own stock and inflate the EPS than spend money on frivolities.
 

amitrandive

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#63
Peter Lynch's Principle Investing principle

When even the analysts are bored, it's time to start buying.

What efficient market? Lynch loves industries Wall Street is ignoring, for here is where the real bargains are. Giant conglomerates have a hundred analysts watching their every move, because they are so popular they are often bought up to silly price earnings ratios though, it is the whole phenomenon of the market buying what they are familiar with, rather than what is good. Savings and Loan companies went out of fashion for a while in America, because a few crooked entrepreneurial types bought a few out and got into a whole lot of trouble making vast loans to their mates for speculative commercial real estate. The result was a series of spectacular failures that ruined the image of the whole industry. Most brokerages stopped looking at S&Ls altogether, and nearly every one of them was sold down. For Lynch this was great, he realized that the actions of these 1980s Christopher Skase types had not damaged the industry as a whole, certainly it meant absolutely nothing to the earnings of many of these companies.

As a result Lynch was able to make quite a few wonderful acquisitions of solid companies with excellent histories that paid great dividends, and he waited a while for the hubbub to calm down and for the industry to get noticed by Wall Street again. Warren Buffett also likes this technique, he bought American Express after a scandalous one-off fraud perpetrated against the company, which led to a massive sell-off in AMEX. If an event doesn't hurt the long-term earnings of a company, and it won't go broke as a result of this hit, then obviously a big sell off is a good time to pick up a bargain.
 

amitrandive

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#64
Peter Lynch's Principle Investing principle on Cyclicals

Unless you're a short seller or a poet looking for a wealthy spouse, it never pays to be pessimistic.

Cyclical stocks can be a great way to make a buck if you buy them at the bottom, so it helps to look for opportunity in depressed stocks, rather than think of all the reasons why a cyclical is going to take losses. When cyclical stocks are so crushed by the economy that it seems things could not possibly get any worse, cyclicals usually hit their bottom. Lynch goes on to talk about PE ratios of cyclicals, advising that the time to buy these is when their PE is at a historic high, because Wall Street has caught on to cyclicals and often begins to discount them before the market as a whole tops. When a cyclical is sitting on a very low PE, along side record profits that have grown for many years, the market is anticipating a downturn. When a cyclical reaches a high PE on very low earnings, the price may be ready for an upturn because earnings will be at or near their nadir.
 

amitrandive

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#65
Peter Lynch's Principle Investing principle on Company Name change

Corporations, like people, change their names for one of two reasons: either they've gotten married, or they've been involved in some fiasco that they hope the public will forget.

This deals with utilities, especially nuclear power providers who suffer a temporary setback (like General Public Utilities, once proud owners of Three Mile Island Unit Two), but also other power utilities such as Consolidated Edison, who made massive losses as the price of oil skyrocketed in the 70s energy crisis, and yet regulators refused to allow the company to pass on the price to energy consumers. Although regulators can be a real burden on utilities, they are also their guardian angels, trying to prevent them from going entirely out of business, as long as people still need electricity the government regulators will not allow the company to fold. As a result utilities can take massive hits in the share price, but in all but a very rare few there is a support level from which they bounce back, often very spectacularly several years after the event. Lynch quotes some specialist utility analysts who have identified four distinct stages in a utility crash and recovery.

Stage one: disaster. Either the cost of fuel has gone through the roof or a major accident has occurred, a huge sell off follow, where the utility may fall to 20 to 30 percent of book value in one or two years. Those who regard utilities as safe bottom draw blue chips usually get something of a shock if their once-a-decade examination of their portfolio happens to coincide with this period.

Stage two: crisis management. An austerity budget is adopted and the dividend is reduced or eliminated. Costs are cut to the point that the company can survive the disaster. At this point Wall Street isn't paying attention any more, and stock prices remain very low.

Stage three: financial stabilization. The company, now as lean and mean as it will ever get can now turn a profit on the cash it receives from its bill-paying customers. Share prices by now have doubled, they are selling at 60 to 70% of book value while still reflecting great value in the eyes of typical "value investors".

Stage four: recovery.
The company can now once again make a profit and pay a dividend. Shares now sell at full book value. Where it goes from here depends a lot on how regulators allow it to pass on costs to customers and the reception from the capital markets, because the company needs capital to expand.
 

amitrandive

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#67
Peter Lynch's long lasting investing principles.


Investing is fun, exciting, and dangerous if you don't do any work.

Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It's something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

Over the past three decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

Behind every stock is a company, find out what it's doing.

Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company's operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. This disparity is the key to making money; it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.

You have to know what you own, and why you own it.

Owning stocks is like having children - don't get involved with more than you can handle.
The part-time stock picker probably has time to follow 8-12 companies, and to buy and sell shares as conditions warrant. There don't have to be more than 5 companies in the portfolio at any time.

If you can't find any companies that you think are attractive, put your money into the bank until you discover some.

Never invest in a company without understanding its finances. The biggest losses in stocks come from companies with poor balance sheets. Always look at the balance sheet to see if a company is solvent before you risk your money on it.

Avoid hot stocks in hot industries. Great companies in cold, no growth industries are consistent big winners.

With small companies, your better off to wait until they turn a profit before you invest.

If you're thinking about investing in a troubled industry, buy the companies with staying power. Also, wait for the industry to show signs of revival. Buggy whips and radio tubes were troubled industries that never came back.

If you invest $1,000 in a stock, all you can lose is $1,000, but you stand to gain $10,000 or even $50,000 over time if you're patient. The average person can concentrate on a few good companies, while the fund manager is forced to diversify. By owning too many stocks, you lose this advantage of concentration. It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.

In every industry and every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them.

A decline is a great opportunity to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic.

Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether.


There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.

Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested.

If you study 10 companies, you'll find 1 for which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you'll find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market - companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street.

If you don't study any companies, you'll have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.

Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies. You can afford to be patient - even if you missed Wal-Mart in the first five years, it was a great stock to own in the next five years. Time is against you when you own options.

If you have the stomach for stocks, but neither the time nor the inclination to do the homework, invest in equity mutual funds.
Here, it's a good idea to diversify. You should own a few different kinds of funds, with managers who pursue different styles of investing: growth, value, small companies, large companies, etc. Investing in six of the same kind of fund is not diversification.

In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account. In the long run, a portfolio of poorly chosen stocks won't outperform the money left under the mattress.
 
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amitrandive

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#70
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