Wealth Creation with Nifty Future

#1
I have been trading in this method for last 9 years almost. So there is no need to back test :). I know it makes money.Only one thing trader should remember "do not let your greed and ego take over your thought process"
There is no need to watch out for news , important interviews - in my experience chart told me if there is any good news or bad news in the corner.
Trader must be enough silent to listen to it.

So this is it ---

I trade in 2 condition of the market.In trends (either bull or bear) and in sideways or range bound market. So there is 2 different trading rules.Chart will consist of all the indicators essentials in both systems , but will be applied according to market conditions. This is the only place for judgement , once the condition (trend or range bound) is clear , do not try to judge in the middle.

Chart setup : on EOD of spot nifty.
3 ema , 5 ema (both are closing basis) , Bollinger Bands (with 20ema as middle line) , MACD (12,26,9), W%R (14). to understand market condition and trade in future.
Thats all.

Interpretation :
In trendy market , 3 ema and 5 ema , BB and MACD will be giving signals. (do not give importence to W%R , how ever overbought or over sold it may be in bull or bear phase respectively)
In range bound market - BB , W%R will be giving signals. (do not give importence to MACD signals )
One can always trade in trends , but one has to determine the BB range in range bound market , if it is too narrow (say 200 points plus minus 50 ) on EOD , skip trading for good.


Signals :
Buy - when 3,5 ema bullish cross over takes place along with MACD buy signal with good volume (100% success rate if happens all together). Book profit when price closes below 3 ema. (more cautious trader can book profit if present day candle closes below previous day candle.) Re buy - if price goes above EOD 3EMA with good volume and closes above EOD 3ema (does not matter how over-bought lower indicators may be , because in trendy market EMA and price action is ultimate) , but in case of Re-buy always be keen to book profits in high (few days one can get profitable intraday trades :p )


Points to remember : when after a immediate bull market rally of 500 to 700 points ... one must not expect an immediate sell signal.
take rest , let your capital breath , enjoy few days ... then return to the market ... OR .. WATCH if BB upper border and lower are encroaching towards price ... making a narrow place to hover around.... you must understand a range bound market is approaching. In this phase a nice sell signal in MACD will not perform.Too many times i have observed that a MACD sell signal is followed by low and very slow rise in nifty price (this is true for any script) , rather a buy signal of MACD in this phase have massive effect in Bullish nifty if the price manages to hover above EOD 3 EMA with volume.

Range-bound Market signals : this is most easy to trade ... if the BB range is more that 300 .. and if 20 EMA is horizontal this system works perfectly. EMA crossover , MACD signal will not provide good trading all swing traders hit SL in this phase ...
Just buy when Price is hitting BB floor and W%R is oversold ( i would not mind to buy outside LOWER BB LINE in intraday 5 min chart if a good buy signal {off-course trendy though range-bound in EOD chart} with good volume - it just shoots up ) , and take profit with you own chosen trailing SL but be smart to book profit (i prefer to book profit if price failed to close above previous day closing).

Similarly Sell in when price action is hitting BB roof and W%R is over bought.and rest is just as above.


Now after sufficient consolidation Nifty may again shoot up with fresh buy signal , or collapse down ... i do not try to guess what is in the corner. after 2 trades to 3 trades in range bound market i stop trading.After this even this system starts to gets messy because nifty starts to find a direction , so I SKIP , let it have the clear direction !.... if you skip your money will be protected.One MUST UNDERSTAND ONLY CHANGE IS CONSTANT IN THE MARKET. you can not beat market every time in every condition with a single strategy.

Everyday open intraday future chart ... apply all the above mentioned indicators in a 5 min chart , 15 min chart , hourly chart and if possible EOD chart. Watch, read what i have said here ... mark 5 min chart with horizontal line the EOD 3 EMA of future (cash level will not work on future chart) .... see how price reacts and indicators arranges there .... my system reflected in intraday any time-frame chart , or eod chart or weekly chart. The reason i avoid to trade intraday is because all these things happen too fast in a smaller time-frame ... that disturbs my mind.

If you are faint hearted SKIP this whole rangebound market trading ... you money will still grow. read ahead.

Sell : When 3,5 ema bearish crossover happens along with MACD sell signal (100% success rate if happens together) .. trail sell position with closing above 3 EMA EOD .
(Experienced traders can take intraday more refined sell position in 5 minute chart if price starts to fall from EOD 3ema horizontal line with MACD sell signal , with good volume, like last day 10th June i sold 1 lot at 8234 and still holding , still there is no MACD sell signal , if it comes i will sell another lot.)

after 300 to 500 point get cautious ... market is not going to get bull without consolidation( that also can happen if tomorrow is a budget day LOL but still there will be 3,5 ema crossover with MACD solid buy signal :p so you won't miss anything).

For all Buy ,Sell positions in all conditions of the market do not have any target , be smart to book profit or even get out of position in loss if system tells you to do so.
as i wrote after 300 to 500 points get cautious .. it does not mean every time you sell it will give you 300 too 500 points lol. ... do as system says, not me.

Money management :

IT is most important aspect of trading ... i consider to keep full value in bank account per nifty future lot LOL ( i am very conservative) and 1 lakh per lot of nifty (1 lot of 75) in trading account.
Always get pay out and collect ... add another lot when you earned a full value of a Nifty future.That will make you solid steps towards wealth creation.

Once i was trapped in 6000 market due to family emergency in 2013 and had to see 1000 points correction ... i did not sold ... had no fear , because i could simply roll over my position to next month and can sustain more 5000 points of correction , that is completely unreal .
Rather i bought again when fresh 3,5 ema bullish crossover happened along with MACD. The pain was rewarded by profits.This is not true with stocks .... SBI still not there , where it was before Recession ... i sold it there at 3200 after making a high of 3400 ... after that it splited and hovering around 180 to 210 .... means 2100 if it was not splited.

Few things to avoid :
1.DO NOT GET TRAPPED by SELLING at bottom and DO NOT GET TRAPPED by BUYING at TOP of the trend ... mistakes happen ... be smart to book loss immediately.
2. DO not guess , LET the price action reflect what it is actually , then take the position.
3.DO not be bull or bear in you mind ... use mind to understand market , do not expect that the market will go to your mind's direction.


My method might seems complicated :
Too simple method can also be adopted like ...buy above 8 ema ... sell below 8 ema ... and trail with SAR .... but believe me they are very bad when you do backtesting ... try it .. Pi have a very nice feature about back testing , and several methods ... but all are faulty ... because market is not ROBOTIC.
Collective Human Psychological Behaviour ..... Where change is the ONLY CONSTANT.Market is conscious ... market plays with each of us differently ... and beating most of us in different ways ........ My system is not to defeat market ... but to understand this MASS HUMAN PSYCHOLOGICAL Behaviour and follow it ... not always ... because i know it will change soon.

I am tired of typing ... will try to post chart image later :p

Friends , try to correct my system and find out flaws .... any advice is appreciated ... i am a very egoless guy .... market have sucked up everything in recession lol.
To Hell with my ego ... money is more important.

Why am i sharing : out of gratitude ... and also i know almost none can follow this... because this is made for me , and by me. still i am open for any discussion on skype ..
bullseye123123

Happy trading friends.
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#3
I have been trading in this method for last 9 years almost. So there is no need to back test :). I know it makes money.Only one thing trader should remember "do not let your greed and ego take over your thought process"
There is no need to watch out for news , important interviews - in my experience chart told me if there is any good news or bad news in the corner.
Trader must be enough silent to listen to it.

So this is it ---

I trade in 2 condition of the market.In trends (either bull or bear) and in sideways or range bound market. So there is 2 different trading rules.Chart will consist of all the indicators essentials in both systems , but will be applied according to market conditions. This is the only place for judgement , once the condition (trend or range bound) is clear , do not try to judge in the middle.

Chart setup : on EOD of spot nifty.
3 ema , 5 ema (both are closing basis) , Bollinger Bands (with 20ema as middle line) , MACD (12,26,9), W%R (14). to understand market condition and trade in future.
Thats all.

Interpretation :
In trendy market , 3 ema and 5 ema , BB and MACD will be giving signals. (do not give importence to W%R , how ever overbought or over sold it may be in bull or bear phase respectively)
In range bound market - BB , W%R will be giving signals. (do not give importence to MACD signals )
One can always trade in trends , but one has to determine the BB range in range bound market , if it is too narrow (say 200 points plus minus 50 ) on EOD , skip trading for good.


Signals :
Buy - when 3,5 ema bullish cross over takes place along with MACD buy signal with good volume (100% success rate if happens all together). Book profit when price closes below 3 ema. (more cautious trader can book profit if present day candle closes below previous day candle.) Re buy - if price goes above EOD 3EMA with good volume and closes above EOD 3ema (does not matter how over-bought lower indicators may be , because in trendy market EMA and price action is ultimate) , but in case of Re-buy always be keen to book profits in high (few days one can get profitable intraday trades :p )


Points to remember : when after a immediate bull market rally of 500 to 700 points ... one must not expect an immediate sell signal.
take rest , let your capital breath , enjoy few days ... then return to the market ... OR .. WATCH if BB upper border and lower are encroaching towards price ... making a narrow place to hover around.... you must understand a range bound market is approaching. In this phase a nice sell signal in MACD will not perform.Too many times i have observed that a MACD sell signal is followed by low and very slow rise in nifty price (this is true for any script) , rather a buy signal of MACD in this phase have massive effect in Bullish nifty if the price manages to hover above EOD 3 EMA with volume.

Range-bound Market signals : this is most easy to trade ... if the BB range is more that 300 .. and if 20 EMA is horizontal this system works perfectly. EMA crossover , MACD signal will not provide good trading all swing traders hit SL in this phase ...
Just buy when Price is hitting BB floor and W%R is oversold ( i would not mind to buy outside LOWER BB LINE in intraday 5 min chart if a good buy signal {off-course trendy though range-bound in EOD chart} with good volume - it just shoots up ) , and take profit with you own chosen trailing SL but be smart to book profit (i prefer to book profit if price failed to close above previous day closing).

Similarly Sell in when price action is hitting BB roof and W%R is over bought.and rest is just as above.


Now after sufficient consolidation Nifty may again shoot up with fresh buy signal , or collapse down ... i do not try to guess what is in the corner. after 2 trades to 3 trades in range bound market i stop trading.After this even this system starts to gets messy because nifty starts to find a direction , so I SKIP , let it have the clear direction !.... if you skip your money will be protected.One MUST UNDERSTAND ONLY CHANGE IS CONSTANT IN THE MARKET. you can not beat market every time in every condition with a single strategy.

Everyday open intraday future chart ... apply all the above mentioned indicators in a 5 min chart , 15 min chart , hourly chart and if possible EOD chart. Watch, read what i have said here ... mark 5 min chart with horizontal line the EOD 3 EMA of future (cash level will not work on future chart) .... see how price reacts and indicators arranges there .... my system reflected in intraday any time-frame chart , or eod chart or weekly chart. The reason i avoid to trade intraday is because all these things happen too fast in a smaller time-frame ... that disturbs my mind.

If you are faint hearted SKIP this whole rangebound market trading ... you money will still grow. read ahead.

Sell : When 3,5 ema bearish crossover happens along with MACD sell signal (100% success rate if happens together) .. trail sell position with closing above 3 EMA EOD .
(Experienced traders can take intraday more refined sell position in 5 minute chart if price starts to fall from EOD 3ema horizontal line with MACD sell signal , with good volume, like last day 10th June i sold 1 lot at 8234 and still holding , still there is no MACD sell signal , if it comes i will sell another lot.)

after 300 to 500 point get cautious ... market is not going to get bull without consolidation( that also can happen if tomorrow is a budget day LOL but still there will be 3,5 ema crossover with MACD solid buy signal :p so you won't miss anything).

For all Buy ,Sell positions in all conditions of the market do not have any target , be smart to book profit or even get out of position in loss if system tells you to do so.
as i wrote after 300 to 500 points get cautious .. it does not mean every time you sell it will give you 300 too 500 points lol. ... do as system says, not me.

Money management :

IT is most important aspect of trading ... i consider to keep full value in bank account per nifty future lot LOL ( i am very conservative) and 1 lakh per lot of nifty (1 lot of 75) in trading account.
Always get pay out and collect ... add another lot when you earned a full value of a Nifty future.That will make you solid steps towards wealth creation.

Once i was trapped in 6000 market due to family emergency in 2013 and had to see 1000 points correction ... i did not sold ... had no fear , because i could simply roll over my position to next month and can sustain more 5000 points of correction , that is completely unreal .
Rather i bought again when fresh 3,5 ema bullish crossover happened along with MACD. The pain was rewarded by profits.This is not true with stocks .... SBI still not there , where it was before Recession ... i sold it there at 3200 after making a high of 3400 ... after that it splited and hovering around 180 to 210 .... means 2100 if it was not splited.

Few things to avoid :
1.DO NOT GET TRAPPED by SELLING at bottom and DO NOT GET TRAPPED by BUYING at TOP of the trend ... mistakes happen ... be smart to book loss immediately.
2. DO not guess , LET the price action reflect what it is actually , then take the position.
3.DO not be bull or bear in you mind ... use mind to understand market , do not expect that the market will go to your mind's direction.


My method might seems complicated :
Too simple method can also be adopted like ...buy above 8 ema ... sell below 8 ema ... and trail with SAR .... but believe me they are very bad when you do backtesting ... try it .. Pi have a very nice feature about back testing , and several methods ... but all are faulty ... because market is not ROBOTIC.
Collective Human Psychological Behaviour ..... Where change is the ONLY CONSTANT.Market is conscious ... market plays with each of us differently ... and beating most of us in different ways ........ My system is not to defeat market ... but to understand this MASS HUMAN PSYCHOLOGICAL Behaviour and follow it ... not always ... because i know it will change soon.

I am tired of typing ... will try to post chart image later :p

Friends , try to correct my system and find out flaws .... any advice is appreciated ... i am a very egoless guy .... market have sucked up everything in recession lol.
To Hell with my ego ... money is more important.

Why am i sharing : out of gratitude ... and also i know almost none can follow this... because this is made for me , and by me. still i am open for any discussion on skype ..
bullseye123123

Happy trading friends.
Excellent write up. Thanks for this selfless share. No views about your set up, but I simply loved the words highlighted by me! They say it all......
Agree.... every trader s unique and his setup will give him positive returns when he has something to trade unique to his trading personality ! We all know with the same set up two traders would give entirely different results for the same period of trade. :thumb: :)
 

hmp

Well-Known Member
#4
Excellent write up. Thanks for this selfless share. No views about your set up, but I simply loved the words highlighted by me! They say it all......
Agree.... every trader s unique and his setup will give him positive returns when he has something to trade unique to his trading personality ! We all know with the same set up two traders would give entirely different results for the same period of trade. :thumb: :)
Welcome back Karnani ji after long time!
Regards
 

RiddhiPD

Active Member
#6
1.Would you elaborate a little bit more on how do you identify beginning of trend or beginning of rangebound market.?
2.Since you are doing it for 9 years I am guessing right now you have a fairly good idea about your system.What do you think your avg risk reword ratio per trade(1:2 0r 1:3 or higher) over such a long years.
3.What is the win percentage.(would you say 50% or more)
4.Do you risk a fix percentage each trade (2% or higher).
4.what is the range of percentage return on average per month?

Thanks for the write up.I am waiting for more explanation eagerly.Since you have provided your skype id would you be up for chat?

I am trying to enter into nifty future trading but not really finding any good method and most method like you said fail in backtesting or has a winning probability of less 40%.Would love to hear more from your system with charts.
 
Last edited:
#8
1.Would you elaborate a little bit more on how do you identify beginning of trend or beginning of rangebound market.?
2.Since you are doing it for 9 years I am guessing right now you have a fairly good idea about your system.What do you think your avg risk reword ratio per trade(1:2 0r 1:3 or higher) over such a long years.
3.What is the win percentage.(would you say 50% or more)
4.Do you risk a fix percentage each trade (2% or higher).
4.what is the range of percentage return on average per month?

Thanks for the write up.I am waiting for more explanation eagerly.Since you have provided your skype id would you be up for chat?

I am trying to enter into nifty future trading but not really finding any good method and most method like you said fail in backtesting or has a winning probability of less 40%.Would love to hear more from your system with charts.
Yes .. i can chat with you , but you must understand .. you have to find your own setup.
1. Simply watch BB with its 20 EMA middle line , if BB upper and lower are constricting towards price , means volatility is decreasing and we may get into a range bound phase more clearly if 20 EMA (middle line) is becoming horizontal.
Similarly , when BB starts to expand , know , volatility is increasing , and 20EMA is going to be inclined or declined .. its end of a range bound state (in all time frame).

2. Risk Reward ratio does not apply to my trade. I do not gamble so that i will calculate "i can risk 20 to get 50" .... if market moves towards my trade direction (i trade in market's direction lol) for atleast 1 day .. i am out of danger... after that the same trade have infinite potential till market closing below 3EMA EOD level.
IF you want to see any example, read my other thread where i used to post regularly for last few months .. see the posts .. and watch the chart .. you will know what i am saying... well , a bit exhaustive work.

3. if you do a robotic trade with the system and calculate , its no different than other systems.
One has to use observation and bias less thoughts , along with good holding capacity... to minimize loosing trades into big ZERO... its upto the trader.
See.. i already gave example of 2013 .. i was stuck at 6000 plus market due to family emergency ... i did not sold it .. i just hold the position .. this is one good thing with nifty .. (unlike Stocks) .. its long term trend is always upwards ... so if you stuck somewhere buying ... and you have the capacity ... and if the loss is too big already .. just hold onto the position by rolling over to next month ...and get out when in profit !
If one do not have greed and hold the capacity ... will not loose in trading nifty :).
All problem , theories and explanations arise when it comes to trading 4 lots of nifty at a time with 2.5 lakh in trading account and earn 2.5 lakh per month lol.You have to decide .. either you are going to make turnover for your broker or make solid profit in your bank account.How about 12 to 30 trade max in a year !Any broker will tell you to trade more lol.

4. No fix percentage .... but you can say most of my trades have difference from trade entry to SL is about 20 to 50 points... its natural .. i do not need to fix anything.

5. LOL ... sounds like POST OFFICE monthly income scheme... Yes i have that .. i live on interest .. from MIS , FDs .. i add up FDs when i need more money for family expenses... and i get that money out of nifty .. sometime once in a year , sometime twice in a year and some time once in a 1.5 year .... on average ... in a very cautious trading .. you will get 3000 points to 4000 points per year in a very conservative calculation... i gave you my whole damn system ... open the chart and calculate.
Say you are in a bull phase .. you are in huge profit .. as because the month is ending .. will you pull out your position ! the bull rally may continue for more 3 months , isn't so ! so there is no monthly income in my system.
 
#9
See ... today 3EMA eod cash nifty level is at 8199 ... so closing above this will only end this sell position which was at 8234.The chart is posted above in the atachment.Today if nifty closed below , a wonderful MACD sell confirm signal will generate.
But as 3,5 eod EMA bearish crossover and MACD sell signal did not generated in the same day , i do not expect a huge downside in few days ... i will be cautious .. will observe intraday volumes in all time frame charts.
Sold position is out of danger already ... lets seeee ......

Happy trading friends.:)
 

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