wanted - a dumbest TA analyst

[onlinegtrash]

thanks guys, for all your inputs

I just started this thread as a joke, I have actually no intention to build 80% loser system :lol: , its mathematical impossibility when applied to the crowd!

 

[Smart_trade]

thanks guys, for all your inputs

I just started this thread as a joke, I have actually no intention to build 80% loser system :lol: , its mathematical impossibility when applied to the crowd!

hmmmm...disapointed..so cruel of you. I was having high hopes that finally I will get the "Holy Grail " here.....dreams shattered........

Smart_trade

 

[onlinegtrash]

hmmmm...disapointed..so cruel of you. I was having high hopes that finally I will get the "Holy Grail " here.....dreams shattered........

Smart_trade

hehe, but that statement already has the 'holy grail', as long as enough people in dream land follow same thing, people outside the dreamland can take their opposite trades after all the crowd loses like clock work all the time ! But am not sure how many managed to 'see' that !

 

[praveen taneja]

hmmmm...disapointed..so cruel of you. I was having high hopes that finally I will get the "Holy Grail " here.....dreams shattered........

Smart_trade

Hieght of Innocence:rofl:

 

[sri_loyola]

Its not the technical analysis which is at fault becuase of 20% wins and 80% losses, its the trader himself. Ask yourself with hand on heart, how long have you traded a TA strategy without any personal and emotional bias... ? If you havent been, than every TA strategy will fail you ....

Signs of personal and emotional bias:

1. My last 2 trades have whipsawed, I will not take the third trade now .. the mkt is out there to get me ( and the third trade will be a huge winner ... you end up cursing TA or the markets)

2. I dont have a good feeling about this trade ... as soon as i entered the trade mkts have stopped or gone slightly against me .. let me close this trade before it hits SL ( and the mkts actually reverses and trade goes in deep profit.. you end up cursing TA or the markets)

3. Wow my trade is finally in profit .. but it seems momentum is ending now .. let me book whatever profits are available and wait for the next trade ( same as 2 above, you end up booking small profit and miss on the bumber trade.. you end up cursing TA or the markets)

4. Damn my SL is hit .. but mkts always hit my SL and reverses .. so I will hold the position and exit at breakeven (voila... the mkts keep going against your position and instead of taking small loss you take a BIG loss ..you end up cursing TA or the markets)

5. Wow my last 3 trades have been winners... I have cracked it ... its easy to make money in mkts .... let me put in more capital or increase my leverage and trade larger quantity ..... lets rake the moolah ! ( crap... the 4th trade whipsaws ... you end up losing more money in this one single trade than the entire profit made in last 3 trades ... you end up cursing TA and mkts)

6. Damn .. I havent been making any money (becuase of above 5) whereas some random guy online is making huge money everytime he trades .. I am sure my strategy is not good .. let me find some new strategy or holy grail.... (repeat of 1 to 5 on new strategy as well .. you end up cursing TA or the mkts)


I can add more signs and I am sure 100% traders would have gone through above, the only difference between a successful trader and a loser is how you manage your emotions ... believe me you cant manage the markets ... you focus on managing what you can control .. YOURSELF

Cheers
SH

wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww SH Your the real market man--what a points.

 

[wan2no]

pleas held, to need dse mst 26 06 2012

 

[linkon7]

alright, on a serious note,

I just wanted to say,
TA may be marginally useful but not more than that.
TA is usually way over rated.
TA signals may be slightly better than coin flips and
we can't improve them much (or heck! we can't even come up with a true loser system!) no matter how much computational power we have.

Totally agree wt you on this...!

TA is just a smart way of loosing money with lots of confidence. It gives the novice hope that a pattern that worked big in history is going to make him rich in the near future.

On a backtest, system never misses any trade. Out of 100 trades, 60 are losers, 40 are winners out of which atleast 10 are monsters, other 30 neutralise the loss of 60 trades.

In reality, traders never ride the monsters to its potential and never miss the bad trades. Somehow, performance is not even close to what it was in paper. Blame it on the system and search for something else is the consensus. Ultimately, people conclude that TA doesn't work...!

What they dont realise is... they DONT know how to make TA work... for a guy who knows how to trade, a simple moving average and volume is enough. For others, even a 80% strike rate system with RR of 3... fails..!

 

[linkon7]

Yes you are right, big money is made by a few monster trades.The reason traders fail to make money , is fail to capitalise on these trades. Now the question is why do traders fail to capitalise on such winning trades?

The answer to this question is the path taken by these monster trades? Now if you observe any monster trades in a 5 minute chart , you can see countless moves opp to the main direction. Now the question is what do these counter trend moves does?

The answer to the question is those counter trend moves eat away your profits already earned in that trade.which is unacceptable and painful.

This makes the path of earning wealth tricky, in the sence that a traders unwillingness to part with his profit is actually depriving him of more profits.

So i conclude that the successful trading is very painful and human tendency is to avoid pain.This makes trading against human nature.

Just my 2 cents....

there are only 2 ways to trade for me...

long by buying the retracement... in case of trending market
or
long by fading extreame... in case of bracketed market...

vice versa for short side...


One has to shift gear accordingly. There is a frame work of support and resistance based on how bigger traders are positioning themselves. Only way to make money is to align with them. No point shorting a scrip just above known support. likewise, taking a buy signal just below a known resistance is not going to help my odds.

Then comes the mindset part. As intraday trader, i know i wont catch the monsters. Sometimes, i might get lucky and a big one might survive my aggressive trailing. But I know my style of trading and i know my weakness. I prefer small stoploss and RR of 2+. So i play to my strength.

Good amount of money is made in the market with common sense trading only. Knowing the market, knowing oneself and knowing how to manage a trade.