wanted - a dumbest TA analyst

[TraderDude]

No offence with what i said..Traderzone was right in that trading is about discipline & patience, but i wanted to know what he really understands with these terms.

I will tell u what i understand with these terms by giving an example of my fav trader rakesh jhunjhunwala, he bought sesa goa futures in 1986-87 @ 60 /-.
The markets remained rangebound for 3 years ..yes 3 years ,and he hold on rolling over on every expiry, it was only in 1990 after the budget delivered by the finance minister, Madhu Dandvante,that markets started soaring higher
and after a few more years he finally sold off for 2000 +.

This is patience, and at the end if the markets rewards him handsomely we have to give him a standing ovation.

I have seen many here use the words like greed ,fear, discipline ,patience without really understanding what these terms are.

Thats i reason i asked what he really meant which those terms.No offence again.

Dear Fish Trader,

what i meant by discipline and patience is waiting for the right setup to come along. 95 % of trader fail not because of the strategy/method, but fail to wait for right conditions and timing. Most people simply don't have the patience and take a trade based on emotions and gamble their money.

I hope now you understand what discipline and patience mean in trading. It's very easy to say this, but very hard to do.

BTW, how in the world do you trade fish? what is the scrip for it?

 

[TraderRavi]

I know TA is very hard subject, I want a dumbest TA to design me a TA system. I am not even asking for the brightest and smartest...

I want a TA system that wins less than 20% of the time for NIFTY.

If there is any newbie or a dumbest TA analyst there, do help me out.

Once I have a loser system with 20% win rate, its easy to convert to 80%
winning system (I just have to flip buy and sell orders!)

can some TA guru explain me, why this is not possible (if possible do help me out!)!?

you can trade opposite me ...70 - 80% success guaranteed....20 - 30% time my trade turns winner...but i dont post my trades realtime regularly...

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Its not the technical analysis which is at fault becuase of 20% wins and 80% losses, its the trader himself. Ask yourself with hand on heart, how long have you traded a TA strategy without any personal and emotional bias... ? If you havent been, than every TA strategy will fail you ....

Signs of personal and emotional bias:

1. My last 2 trades have whipsawed, I will not take the third trade now .. the mkt is out there to get me ( and the third trade will be a huge winner ... you end up cursing TA or the markets)

2. I dont have a good feeling about this trade ... as soon as i entered the trade mkts have stopped or gone slightly against me .. let me close this trade before it hits SL ( and the mkts actually reverses and trade goes in deep profit.. you end up cursing TA or the markets)

3. Wow my trade is finally in profit .. but it seems momentum is ending now .. let me book whatever profits are available and wait for the next trade ( same as 2 above, you end up booking small profit and miss on the bumber trade.. you end up cursing TA or the markets)

4. Damn my SL is hit .. but mkts always hit my SL and reverses .. so I will hold the position and exit at breakeven (voila... the mkts keep going against your position and instead of taking small loss you take a BIG loss ..you end up cursing TA or the markets)

5. Wow my last 3 trades have been winners... I have cracked it ... its easy to make money in mkts .... let me put in more capital or increase my leverage and trade larger quantity ..... lets rake the moolah ! ( crap... the 4th trade whipsaws ... you end up losing more money in this one single trade than the entire profit made in last 3 trades ... you end up cursing TA and mkts)

6. Damn .. I havent been making any money (becuase of above 5) whereas some random guy online is making huge money everytime he trades .. I am sure my strategy is not good .. let me find some new strategy or holy grail.... (repeat of 1 to 5 on new strategy as well .. you end up cursing TA or the mkts)


I can add more signs and I am sure 100% traders would have gone through above, the only difference between a successful trader and a loser is how you manage your emotions ... believe me you cant manage the markets ... you focus on managing what you can control .. YOURSELF

Cheers
SH

 

[gunsho]

I know TA is very hard subject, I want a dumbest TA to design me a TA system. I am not even asking for the brightest and smartest...

I want a TA system that wins less than 20% of the time for NIFTY.

If there is any newbie or a dumbest TA analyst there, do help me out.

Once I have a loser system with 20% win rate, its easy to convert to 80%
winning system (I just have to flip buy and sell orders!)

can some TA guru explain me, why this is not possible (if possible do help me out!)!?

If one can find a system which consistently fails 80%, obviously he would have designed it in the opposite way only. So ideally you are asking for a system which consistently win 80% of the time :clapping:. As everyone says, system alone may not be sufficient to keep us in trading on long term.

On the lighter note, I feel you will be the best person to design such system :thumb:.

 

[TraderDude]

dude,now u are loosing it & talking with little sence.



pls take care of yourself. :console:

LOLOLOL....as expected...dear fish trader...please get some sense of humor..

 

[TraderDude]

guys pls mature up......

Now Now..everyone..be serious and mature up like Karma..

 

[onlinegtrash]

If one can find a system which consistently fails 80%, obviously he would have designed it in the opposite way only...

If a kid fails in math exam by scoring 20% all the time would you say the same !!

On the lighter note, I feel you will be the best person to design such system :thumb:.

Thanks for the compliment !
I am trying my best to be like the kid who fails with 20% score all the time, but isn't just happening !

=====
anyways guys, this discussion on TA doesn't imply anywhere I underestimate the importance patience, money management etc.

I simply wanted to point out, there is no 'falsification test' for TA.
Here is another scenario:
me: "guys, i ve an elephant repellant water"
you: "how can I trust you" ?
me: "do you see elephants around you now?...so there you go"

Any hypothesis which fails to account for its failure cases and dumb luck
is not actually a valid hypothesis.

How do you know an astrologer is just bluffing?
you have to count all his predictions that are true
and count all his predictions that FAILED.
unless he has significantly low failed cases against positive ones,
he is just bluffing... and any one can get things right by sheer luck, if enough attempts were made!

(I can't believe there are astrological+TA combo traders! )

Ofcourse there is a plenty of chance that am just dumb newbie

 

[anuragmunjal]

hi onlinegtrash,

though ur effort is good, I do not think it will bear fruit, simply becos I do not feel ' converse is true' wd work in trading, maybe in very short format (like scalping), but not otherwise. I have seen numerous examples where one has bought and another has sold on more or less the same price and both end up in a loss.. In a rangebound mkt., both will get beaten if they use a sl.
personally, I do not have a strike rate of more than 30%, but this does not imply that if a person were to stand counter to every trade of mine, he wd come out a winner.

regards

 

[SavantGarde]

Key is Buyer & Seller agree to a Price but disagree on valuation that is why a Trade gets executed.... now to workout the Edge...!!!

SG

 

[anuragmunjal]

hi onlinegtrash,

though ur effort is good, I do not think it will bear fruit, simply becos I do not feel ' converse is true' wd work in trading, maybe in very short format (like scalping), but not otherwise. I have seen numerous examples where one has bought and another has sold on more or less the same price and both end up in a loss.. In a rangebound mkt., both will get beaten if they use a sl.
personally, I do not have a strike rate of more than 30%, but this does not imply that if a person were to stand counter to every trade of mine, he wd come out a winner.

regards

moreover it is generallly not 'bad systems' which fail traders, but the human tendency to override the systems which fails them..

regards