Dear Vinee,
In the war we never disclose our plans to the enemy. We try to surprise the enemy with our traps and win over them. Trading is a war and only those win who have excellent trapping methods. In order to win we must have proper plan. If you have a plan(set of clearly defined backtested rules) and confidence to accept the outcome, trading will be very easy.
Attached hourly, I think after two gap up's its time for it to reverse a bit.
Is my observation correct... is this the reason you are saying buy only 25%.