Trade SMART
- Thread starter SMART_Trader
- Start date
Black Swan Chart Formation!
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Talebs book" The Black Swan" . Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes, its a joke.
Here is the Original post from blackchip at Elite Trader.
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Talebs book" The Black Swan" . Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes, its a joke.
Here is the Original post from blackchip at Elite Trader.
Black Swan Chart Formation!
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Talebs book" The Black Swan" . Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes, its a joke.
Here is the Original post from blackchip at Elite Trader.
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Talebs book" The Black Swan" . Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes, its a joke.
Here is the Original post from blackchip at Elite Trader.
SMART(Significant Move Analysis Related Trades) is an absolute strength based system. Stocks that have moved significantly over the past one year only is considered for trade. Stocks appreciated more than 100% during the past one year makes the trading universe.
The trick is to enter these stocks on a 4% plus breakout after a consolidation. if the entry is successful, we can catch the start of a new uptrend.So we are looking for yearly growth of 100% plus , 10 to 20 day weakness or consolidation, and a 4% plus high volume breakout.
Position sizing: use 10 % of the capital on a single trade and never lose more than 10% inclusive of brokerage on any trade. Never Lose more than 1% of your capital on any trade
Stops: Initial stop is pre breakout days low .Time stop of 5 days.( If the price is not going up above the entry price within 5 days , just get out).if Price appreciates more than 10% trail with 2 days low stop.
If you find too many stocks in breakout list use these to short list.
A) Prefer a smooth chart.
B) Closeness to year high is good
C) Prefer the one with high volume
D) Absence of recent 4% downward breakout is good
E) Preference for first breakout after consolidation
F) Small capital base
G) Institutional holding
H) Sector with high relative strength
I) Clear catalysts like
" Result announcement
" Bonus/Split announcement
* Sales Acceleration
* New Orders
* New Product
* Regulatory Policy Change etc.
Trading is all about probabilities, never certainties.If you are familiar with some patterns or other indicators which can turn the odds in your favor , use it. I will be posting the breakout list regularly.short list and trade at your own risk.
The trick is to enter these stocks on a 4% plus breakout after a consolidation. if the entry is successful, we can catch the start of a new uptrend.So we are looking for yearly growth of 100% plus , 10 to 20 day weakness or consolidation, and a 4% plus high volume breakout.
Position sizing: use 10 % of the capital on a single trade and never lose more than 10% inclusive of brokerage on any trade. Never Lose more than 1% of your capital on any trade
Stops: Initial stop is pre breakout days low .Time stop of 5 days.( If the price is not going up above the entry price within 5 days , just get out).if Price appreciates more than 10% trail with 2 days low stop.
If you find too many stocks in breakout list use these to short list.
A) Prefer a smooth chart.
B) Closeness to year high is good
C) Prefer the one with high volume
D) Absence of recent 4% downward breakout is good
E) Preference for first breakout after consolidation
F) Small capital base
G) Institutional holding
H) Sector with high relative strength
I) Clear catalysts like
" Result announcement
" Bonus/Split announcement
* Sales Acceleration
* New Orders
* New Product
* Regulatory Policy Change etc.
Trading is all about probabilities, never certainties.If you are familiar with some patterns or other indicators which can turn the odds in your favor , use it. I will be posting the breakout list regularly.short list and trade at your own risk.
i have been regularly viewing your thread for last couple of weeks and finding it very interesting. i want to know if you alow the software to choose the stocks based on your criteria or go visually. in case, former is the case, could you please help set up particular criteria in fibotrader. i am not very good at it.
regards,
nick
dear friend,
i have been regularly viewing your thread for last couple of weeks and finding it very interesting. i want to know if you alow the software to choose the stocks based on your criteria or go visually. in case, former is the case, could you please help set up particular criteria in fibotrader. i am not very good at it.
regards,
nick
i have been regularly viewing your thread for last couple of weeks and finding it very interesting. i want to know if you alow the software to choose the stocks based on your criteria or go visually. in case, former is the case, could you please help set up particular criteria in fibotrader. i am not very good at it.
regards,
nick
I run the basic scan in Amibroker. Very sorry . I am not familier with Fibotrader and i dont know how to do it.I think you can do it yourself if you understand the concept.
Basic frame work of every working trading system are Stock,entry,exit and risk selection process. Stock selection is the most important.If you are trading a long only system , you need to select the stock that has the highest probability of going up in the respective time frame.Think about those factors and incorporate it in your stock screening method.
Visit the sites of Bulkowski the authority of chart patterns and Dan Zanger another chart pattern trader. Compare their trading performance.Dan is making triple digit returns year after year where Bulkowski is not performing well.Why ?
Let me quote Dan
"I combine these patterns with stocks that have unusually higher rates of growth and low number of shares that float. For the average stock I list, growth rates must be up at least 40% for both earnings and revenues growth for their most recent quarters and most stocks that I list have growth rates up 80, 90, 100 and sometimes up 200% and more. It's these high growth rates combined with stocks that have low number of shares that float that make them so explosive."
Stock Selection is the key.
The swan looks like a duck in fact (just joking). It seems you have read the book. I have read critics review of the book. It seems Nasim Taleb does not believe in statistics. Is it so?
But i will strongly recommend the following books because these books will give you the templates to work with
24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success: William Neil
Your Next Great Stock : Jack Hough
The Hedge Fund Edge : Mark Boucher
Super Performance Stocks: Richard Love
Trading in the Zone : Mark Douglas
Hello Nick
I run the basic scan in Amibroker. Very sorry . I am not familier with Fibotrader and i dont know how to do it.I think you can do it yourself if you understand the concept.
Basic frame work of every working trading system are Stock,entry,exit and risk selection process. Stock selection is the most important.If you are trading a long only system , you need to select the stock that has the highest probability of going up in the respective time frame.Think about those factors and incorporate it in your stock screening method.
Visit the sites of Bulkowski the authority of chart patterns and Dan Zanger another chart pattern trader. Compare their trading performance.Dan is making triple digit returns year after year where Bulkowski is not performing well.Why ?
Let me quote Dan
"I combine these patterns with stocks that have unusually higher rates of growth and low number of shares that float. For the average stock I list, growth rates must be up at least 40% for both earnings and revenues growth for their most recent quarters and most stocks that I list have growth rates up 80, 90, 100 and sometimes up 200% and more. It's these high growth rates combined with stocks that have low number of shares that float that make them so explosive."
Stock Selection is the key.
I run the basic scan in Amibroker. Very sorry . I am not familier with Fibotrader and i dont know how to do it.I think you can do it yourself if you understand the concept.
Basic frame work of every working trading system are Stock,entry,exit and risk selection process. Stock selection is the most important.If you are trading a long only system , you need to select the stock that has the highest probability of going up in the respective time frame.Think about those factors and incorporate it in your stock screening method.
Visit the sites of Bulkowski the authority of chart patterns and Dan Zanger another chart pattern trader. Compare their trading performance.Dan is making triple digit returns year after year where Bulkowski is not performing well.Why ?
Let me quote Dan
"I combine these patterns with stocks that have unusually higher rates of growth and low number of shares that float. For the average stock I list, growth rates must be up at least 40% for both earnings and revenues growth for their most recent quarters and most stocks that I list have growth rates up 80, 90, 100 and sometimes up 200% and more. It's these high growth rates combined with stocks that have low number of shares that float that make them so explosive."
Stock Selection is the key.
thanks for your prompt reply. may i pm you ? i need to take your suggestion for something very important.
regards,
nick
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