Thoughts on Day/Swing Trading

[respectinvestor]

another point is that, the macd and stochs on daily are moving upwards, without any hint of bearishness.
that will be a deceiver

@PRST...Read my post again....I have mentioned that on the hourly charts MACD has triggered a sell....I have gone through some posts by you and you are quite a knowledgeable person and your querries are of a very genuine nature and thats the reason I am explaining it bit by bit...

you had mentioned it in one of your posts that 20 50 is a lagging indicator...similar is the case here...before triggering a buy or sell on daily charts a stock will first trigger it at hourly charts..and a MACD sell on daily charts will come earlier than on a weekly chart...thats the point..it may be too late when the signals come on daily and at the top we need to be alert to these possibilities...

with regards to stochastics..slow stochastics on daily charts has already made a HINGE today..(no hint of bearishness as such but being alert to all possibilities) and fast stochastics has made negative crossover yesterday only My parameters are (14,3)..go to chartink.com...EOD is there...Hinge is another indicator of a possible price reversal....and we are always dealing in probabilities and not certainties

Hope I clarify...

Trading is all about taking bets when probabilities favour a favourable outcome..Markets may prove me to be wrong..but I will take my trade...

Regards and Happy Trading:thumb:

 

[timepass]

..slow stochastics on daily charts has already made a HINGE today..

Hinge.. kabhi suna nahi bhai.. Can't find it on investopedia and google isn't helping much. Can you please give some resources or detailed explanation ?

 

[respectinvestor]

Hinge.. kabhi suna nahi bhai.. Can't find it on investopedia and google isn't helping much. Can you please give some resources or detailed explanation ?

Tecnical Analysis Explained by Martin Pringe Page 234

I understand it but I have doubts whether I will be able to explain it let me just give it a try ...

For example the faster line in slow stachastics ...if it is in upwards direction by an angle of 70-75 degree..and then suddenly ypu find that it has made a 45 degree ...just go to www.chartink.com DLF EOD...its basically about the slope of lines... may be I have been able to explain...may be not...only u can tell me better...:thumb:

 

[Smart_trade]

Scaling in and out of timeframes

I am demonstrating the use of this important concept with the help of charts of Nifty futures for 29 th and 30 th sept 2011.

The upper chart is Nifty Futures 5 min chart . Here many trade opportunities are marked on various concepts/methods/ systems . See the elliptical areas shown on 29th and 30th. On 29th the market broke out from sideways movement and the decline after this correction did not come below the pivot high it broke and there was a gap in between. This indicated that the market is set up for an upmove. The reverse is on 30th , market broke down and the rally failed to go into the sideways area it broke ( taking candle bodies here ) and this indicated that the market is setup for a downmove.

( Nifty Fut 3 min chart )

Once we observe the trade set up on 5 min timeframe, we get down to lower timeframe of 3 min to finetune our trade entry and initial stoploss. This is done for getting more clarity and precision. We use 3 min chart only for initial entry and stoploss. Once the trade moves in our favour we scale back to 5 min which is our trading timeframe. In the 3 min NF chart posted we can take the trades with much better clarity and tighter stops......

The trades marked are on various methods ( most of them come to same location ) but observe the precision which a lower timeframe of 3 min provides with a comfort of tighter but clearly defined stops.....

Smart_trade

 

[respectinvestor]

@smart_trade

You are adding in quite a meaningful way...this is what a forum should do..

saw a forum how to double in 40 trades...interesting I suppose

..so decided to go ahead and share my thoughts on trading..I do nott have any hesitation in sharing my thought process...your style and my differs entirely...I take positions and you are in and out of trade..

I know my stop-loss..i.e. where to get out in case of losses..thats the only thing I know...in case of profits I just try to show patience...I am looking to catch a trend of at least 4-5 % and research a lot to find that one stock

M&M IS a sell ....STOP-LOSS IS 820...CMP 804.8

Going by welles wilders Trend balance point system it has a target of 787
at the same time there are other reasons as well...on hourly charts MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell ..third time that the stock has retraced from around 815+ levels...so now probability of bears taking over is high...

An auto stock at around all time high level...

lets see how this pans out in trade tomorrow..a spike if any in the stock will be nice place to go short...and I do not have any targets in mind I will remain in trade as long as I am not stopped out...and try to max this trade



..

 

[Satyen]

Dada this is Excellent Post please keep them Comming ......

We can do it any time frame like for long term trader Daily/60 min does a verry good thing in my view

Thnaks again

 

[respectinvestor]

@smart_trade

You are adding in quite a meaningful way...this is what a forum should do..

saw a forum how to double in 40 trades...interesting I suppose

..so decided to go ahead and share my thoughts on trading..I do nott have any hesitation in sharing my thought process...your style and my differs entirely...I take positions and you are in and out of trade..

I know my stop-loss..i.e. where to get out in case of losses..thats the only thing I know...in case of profits I just try to show patience...I am looking to catch a trend of at least 4-5 % and research a lot to find that one stock

M&M IS a sell ....STOP-LOSS IS 820...CMP 804.8


Going by welles wilders Trend balance point system it has a target of 787
at the same time there are other reasons as well...on hourly charts MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell ..third time that the stock has retraced from around 815+ levels...so now probability of bears taking over is high...

An auto stock at around all time high level...

lets see how this pans out in trade tomorrow..a spike if any in the stock will be nice place to go short...and I do not have any targets in mind I will remain in trade as long as I am not stopped out...and try to max this trade



..

Some more on M&M now...

M&M made a shooting star and the hanging man kind of pattern on hourly charts...shooting star was made with 75% more volumes compared with the previous bar on hourly..

Now it appears that M&M may give 20SMA 9 EMA negative croosover on hourly charts...MACD on hourly charts has already given a sell...M&M did give initial jitters though..made a high of 818.35 in cash and 818.8 in october futures...stop-loss at 820 remains intact...

it did give a spike after a subdued opening...short @ 810 oct.

now the only point is how much I can loose...since the position is profitable..would stay put...stay put like a lion in profit and run like a coward in losses..thats the only thing which may work for a trader...

Exit..not decided..again point is simple...if at all this is the top...then rewards can be anything....785..770..755...740 so will stay put...

as already pointed out Welder baba's target was 787...

DLF...IT HAS DELIVERED LIKE CRAZY...futures around 200..so already lived close to 10% of the downward trend...now the only question is how much I am ready to give back to the market...well..20 points in profit...I am willing to bet 40% of it..so 8 points adverse reaction...I will book it...thats it...but since the intention is to live the entire trend ..so willing to give something back...now the losses will be in profits...so it makes sense to stay put and see how much markets love you..:clap:.

But probably very few people interested so will stop posting now....

Regards and Happy Trading :thumb:

 

[Smart_trade]

Some more on M&M now...

M&M made a shooting star and the hanging man kind of pattern on hourly charts...shooting star was made with 75% more volumes compared with the previous bar on hourly..

Now it appears that M&M may give 20SMA 9 EMA negative croosover on hourly charts...MACD on hourly charts has already given a sell...M&M did give initial jitters though..made a high of 818.35 in cash and 818.8 in october futures...stop-loss at 820 remains intact...

it did give a spike after a subdued opening...short @ 810 oct.

now the only point is how much I can loose...since the position is profitable..would stay put...stay put like a lion in profit and run like a coward in losses..thats the only thing which may work for a trader...

Exit..not decided..again point is simple...if at all this is the top...then rewards can be anything....785..770..755...740 so will stay put...

as already pointed out Welder baba's target was 787...

DLF...IT HAS DELIVERED LIKE CRAZY...futures around 200..so already lived close to 10% of the downward trend...now the only question is how much I am ready to give back to the market...well..20 points in profit...I am willing to bet 40% of it..so 8 points adverse reaction...I will book it...thats it...but since the intention is to live the entire trend ..so willing to give something back...now the losses will be in profits...so it makes sense to stay put and see how much markets love you..:clap:.

But probably very few people interested so will stop posting now....

Regards and Happy Trading :thumb:

Your analysis is very good. But this thread is not about methods,scrips,levels etc but it is about trading ideas which one can incorporate in his trading....

But keep coming out with your analysis and trades etc.......you can start a different thread and people will be interested.....I will be a regular visitor there myself....don't stop posting....

If you want I will shift all your posts to the new thread which you will open so that the continuity is maitained......do let me know....

Regards,

Smart_trade

 

[esanjayplayer]

Re: nac Calling JOBBERS/SCALPERS

Hi ST ,

Have read a lot of posts by you ..,

Your explanation of De Marks method of Overbought ( 5 Bars) was very good ..., Do remember your post on the explanation of 60 minute flow & how it works ( Also remember your comparison to Spider and its Web.... )...,Have hard Bound copies of the same.

Now to My question on your 5 Minute Chart of BNF.., Why there are no long positions at the blue line(Horizontal) i have marked on Your Chart ...,

Moreover we see an aggressive pivot(Red bar) after the WRB ..., Is this NOT a confirmation that the trend is continuing...? OR was one suppsoed to expect a sideways movement after the WRB hence Long positions are not taken..

OR am i confused with my understanding of Pivots ..

Your reply for the above will be much appreciated.

Best Wishes...,
Nithin.

=============


You always wanna be a scalper first, than swing trader & than develop yourself as Position trader.

Good work. keep it up.

Few more post will help a lot to newbies

 

[Smart_trade]

Hi Dada and Others

I have a very Basic Doubt that is “ Why There Will Be Trend At All “ ?

Realise every method more or less does same thing , try to catch trend some catch it early with more whip some little late ………..
they all make money if trend is there

Firstly was in misconception that its basic nature of finacial crowd
that it moves between trend to non trend and vice versa ….

But later realize trend only depends on how strong is supply/demand ….

A particular scrip or Index may stay in sideways or listless for months some cases for years …….

So how we know in coming months /years particular scrip or index will have strong supply/demand and will be active

Like now we have a fall , so how we know particular sector is going to active , chose it to trade

Like if some body is trading different indexes across the world then how he will chose perticualr index to trade ?

Why Nifty why not HangSeng ?

Have seen Nifty gone for listless for months what is the guarantee that it will not go into listless/sideway mode for some years ?

There must be a Way to know how to chose perticualr index/scrip , but I don’t know how , need to know all these ….

Posting a Example below chart

Hope I am not bugging too much by my basic/silly Doubts

Satyen ,

Let me put down my thoughts on some very basic questions you have raised.

Financial and commodities markets go up and down depending on the supply, demand and the money flow. It is the nature of these markets.They develop trends and after strong trends, the money flow makes it go sideways before it trends again. Markets can remain listless or in sideways zone for extended period of time.But you will always have some trends on some other timeframes .

It is impossible to judge which sector will do well before the sector takes off . Some pointers could be Government policies, global supply /demand of products of that sector, quality of companies and their management etc but once you have a first leg of the trend, it will be clear that some sectors and some companies are frontrunners and some are laggards....and this lead is always maintained till the move finally comes to an end.

The world is making progress, the corporates are delivering goods and services, people's incomes are rising ans so are their consumption and savings....all this will make their savings go in some sectors in search of returns and that sector will trend....the world is not coming to an end any time soon.....

In India we have so far limited access to world commodities, forex,Bonds etc but this situation will change fast and we will soon have all these markets on our single terminals like our overseas counterparts have.....so trade only those markets which are trending......the sideways markets are kept on watchlist...... , so trading will have bright future and good traders is extremely scarce resource in even international financial markets.

I will end this long reply by giving an example of a spider which I read somewhere. A spider weaves its net, goes in the corner and patiently waits for the insects to fly past and get stuck in the net, exhaust all their energies and then the spider attacks and feeds itself.....have you ever heard of any spider getting worried that if insects stop flying then what happens ? how do I feed myself ? it has no such worry because thousands of years of history has shown that insects will fly, get caught in the web and the spiders will always have comfortable living...... we traders have to learn from spiders...markets will trend, people will have greed and fear and a good trader will always be on top of his profession........

Best wishes,

Smart_trade