the shorttermer Corner

Hi everyone,

After the encouraging feedback i got from my thread in the general chit chat section, i have decided to start my own full-time thread.

I agree (without being immodest) with the market sense, success and acumen i seem to have, I should be returning more back to this forum.

So hear we are... few posts down the line I will manage to find my bearings on how this thread is going and will explain properly what type and kind of info this thread gives out.

Thanks for the support guys,

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Hi Guys,

Right now I'm grappling with trading with United Phosphoros Ltd (UPL) - BSE 512070 - A group, BSE 100 index. It has a beta value of .4!

It seems to be in a crazy mela of trading activity. I am milking it, but not as effeciently as i should

I've tried everything to get the trades 'just perfect' on this one, but it just is'nt happening! I've done basic TA like MAs, RSIs and stochastics; cant get the pulse of the stock movement. ive done the enhanced system tests of Metastock... nothing that seems to be good comes up.

Checking the stock out, day-trades seemed like a gr8 bet on a volatile counter like this. but again all the research (manual, trial-n-error, and rational) that i put into it dint bear fruit.

Anyway this stock is poised to be through this mad state of flux (and with a beta value of .4 i wouldnt worry abt the overall market) to reach levels of around 255-270, on news sources, according to the market grapevine and sources from the company.

anyway the trading method i'm resigning to using is waiting for it to be in the 210-215 region to buy and dump at 220-225 region. i know very amateur and dalal streetish attitude for the trade but analysing all my past successful trades this works out best. (If I can i will put in a chart later on to show what i mean). The profit margin may seem small, but this counter really ticks around these 2 levels with fast ferocity so being nimble gets you small margin profits in no time. these trades of abt 5% earning each appx take 1-4 days... consistently. (other approaches for different risk types is buy at 205-210 and sell at 235... take the figures that work for you... i find mine gives me best annualised return on amt of time money used!)

I find this a forgiving stock so you can blunder up and keep your stop-loss amts quite far and not worry... i find it comes back up in no time. But you have to watch this stock closely - it moves intra-day like a Black Mamba - blink and miss!

Cautions :-

1. P/E ratio - 53.3!
2. Fundamentals on the weaker side.
3. The point of 255-270 target is not sure... its the grapevine... not on my T.A.

Pros :-

1. Sexy Beta Value - .4 ; u really dont have to worry abt the markt around you
2. A Grp Co., BSE 100 Index
3. Can consistently make you small margins FAST - adds up big time if you invest the right amts in higher qtys than you normally would bcoz you know the risk goes down with the time approach.

thats my first post. waiting for truckloads of criticism on this one from the cautious ;) . but seriously any feedback on this would be good. im making a killing on this scrip... not my mainstay... too risky... but great for your 'mad growth' part of money portfolio, whatever % it might be!

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Cautionary Note :-

When i say 'Sources' or 'market grapevine' in my posts i mean my brokers, brokers sources, acquaintances in the same line, etc.

When i do refer to them on this thread henceforth i go in with the belief that they may be true, half-true, manipulated, or total rubbish. I cannot guarantee the genuineness of the 'info', but i personally take it as a 75% true and most of this info has got me good results. I will continue to mention if they are just source info or market grapevine, and give the obligatory caution with them that i cannot personally verify it.

If you have noticed in my first post i dont tell anyone what to do, just sharing what i'm up to. i am not forcing this info on anyone and please feel free to criticize or argue on any point. no-one is obligated to buy anything and i just provide info on what im upto. personally, till ppl assess my style and successes and failures, only then i would recc. to follow me, like they do Traderji, Saint or Amitbe. But again, i would trust them more than me bcoz they are professionals... i am a businessman! but plz guys keep checking this thread for a while and give your thought, feelings, criticisms, congrats, brickbats, blah, blah. would be happy to receive 'em all.


according to makret-grapervine and sources, Texmaco is in for a new surge in price starting tom. to sometime next week. Apparently a bull operator has got wind of great results this quarter. (whatever!)

anyway im putting in a small amt tom. lets see what i get out. i know its a safe co.!

Texmaco had a mad upswing today went up 18% in the start and now back to 2-3%. maybe worth watching.


btw - i had got onto texmaco on a 'Buy' signal from my M.A.
Interesting... thread, shorttermer.
Valecha Engineering-Speeding up the Expressway
BSE 532389; CMP Rs 260; BUY
12 M price target: Rs 400
Upside: +73 per cent

The Rs 140 crore Mumbai based Valecha Engineering, is all set to enter the big league. This small cap construction company which has hitherto focussed on building roads and highways in the past, is now scaling up business operations to include Airport runways, flyovers, bridges, tunnels and pile foundation.

For the last segment, Valecha Engineering is one of three project contractors in the country other than Simplex and Punj Lloyd to own as many as 10 specialised drilling rigs which are required to execute force pilings that go into the setting up of massive underground power plants and hydel projects.

More importantly for new investors, Valecha Engineering fetches a market capitalisation of a mere Rs 103 crore, as against which the corporate holds nearly 11 lakh shares of Jyoti Structures worth Rs 30 crore on its book, and owns 100,000 square feet of real estate in Bombay conservatively valued at Rs 37 crore. Thus the Equity value of the corporate works out to just Rs 40 crore.

If this part alone did not convince you about the under-valuation of the stock, read on. The current order book with Valecha Engineering exceeds Rs 500 crore, which is about 3.5 times its last reported Revenues of Rs 145 crore for Financial 2005.

The business is being scaled up

Considering that in the first half to September 2005, VLCE reported revenues of Rs 61 crore and after tax profits of Rs 3 crore, the second half should see more business contracts being completed and the over-all business profile itself being scaled up.

Thus Financial 2006, should conclude with Revenues in excess of Rs 160 crore and after tax profits of Rs 10 crore. For the fiscal 2006, EPS should work out to Rs 22 crore, which gives VLCE stock a PE of just over 10 against the peer group that fetches a PE in excess of 25. So ideally speaking this scrip should quote closer to the Rs 400 mark over a period of time.

Funds are being infused in

VLCE would be issuing 20,48 900 convertible warrants on Preferential basis to Promoters and other investors of the face value of Rs 10/- each, convertible into Equity at a premium of Rs 189.55 aggregating to Rs 40,88,57,995. That apart, Equity Shares in the form of Global / American Depository Receipts upto Rs 60 crore with Green Shoe option to retain 10 per cent over and above Rs 60 crore will bring in,combined, nearly Rs 110 crore as cash in hand with the company.

The funds would be used to carry out large scale construction projects

The Rs 110 crore planned to be raised, as aforesaid would totally transform the scale and business profile of VLCE. Recent order wins of Rs 330 crore bagged by VLCE are the starting blocks.

These six highway projects include:

A. Road projects

1.Construction of the 4 / 6 lane access controlled Chittorgarh Bypass-Km. 159.0 of NH-79 to Km. 213.0 of NH-76 in the state of Rajasthan by the National Highways Authority of India, New Delhi with a contract value of Rs 133 crore and completion within a period of 24 months from ground zero.

2. Improvement, Raising & Strengthening of Dakha-Halwara-Rajkot-Barnala Road:Km. 50.60 to 75.60 in the state of Punjab by Public Works Department, Barnala, Punjab with a contract value of Rs 12.4 crore ,and completion within a period of 10 months.

3. Rehabilitation and Strengthening of Sagar-Rehli SH-37:VLCE has turned out to be the lowest bidder for the SH37 project Road No. 12-Length 42.2 Km in the state of Madhya Pradesh, awarded by the Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation Ltd, Bhopal, with a tentative contract value of Rs 24 crore and completion period of 24 months.

4. Construction of Balance Work of Six Laning in the State of Haryana:this is the Km. 44 to 66 Km stretch on the NH-1 (Civil Contract Package No. NS-27/HR-Bal) in the 'State of Haryana" by National Highways Authority of India, New Delhi with a contract value of Rs 75 crore and completion period of 18 months.

5. Construction of Katni Pawai Amanganj and Panna Ajaygarh Road Project: This 99.73 Km road project has been awarded by the Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation Ltd, Bhopal with a contract value of Rs 50 crore and a completion period of 24 months.

6. Construction of Lukwasa Isagarh Chanderi Road Project: This 73.41 Km road project comes under the aegis of Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation Ltd, Bhopal with a contract value of Rs 35 crore and a completion period of 24 months.

B. Flyovers and Underpass Projects worth Rs 75.6 crore

1. Construction of Flyover at Suman Nagar, Mumbai, between the Eastern Express Highway and V N Purav Marg at Suman Nagar Junction, Mumbai in the state of Maharashtra by Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority at the contract value of Rs 16.07 crore and a completion period of 12 months.

2. Construction of Flyover at Phagwara, Punjab at the Phagwara Junction on NH-1 (Ludhiana - Jalandhar section) at Phagwara in the state of Punjab under National Highways Authority of India, New Delhi, at the tentative contract value of Rs 16.07 crore with a completion period of 12 months.

3. Construction of Flyover at Rao Tularam Junction in the vicinity of Palam Airport, New Delhiwith a contract price Rs 24.5 crore with a completion period of 15 months.

4. Construction of Underpass on the Ring Road-Road No. 37 intersection near Prem Bari Pul, Delhi (SH: Construction of Underpass and Surface level Roads)" in the city of Delhi by Delhi Tourism & Transportation Development Corporation Ltd, Delhi at the contract value of Rs 15.61 crore,with a completion period of 15 months.

The icing on the cake is the Chittorgarh Bypass

Initial project size was Rs 113 crore which has been scaled up recently. The project under implementation by NHAI is a dream project, which is an integral part of National Highway Development Project (Phase- 2).The project comprises of Construction of 4 Lane divided carriage-way partial access controlled highway by widening with rigid pavement for new carriage-way and strengthening of existing carriage-way with flexible pavement, centre median, service roads, open and covered drains footpath etc. along the existing / realignment portion of the Nation Highway. This 30 km project will feature, one major bridge, one Railway Over Bridge, One Flyover, 14 Underpasses, and one Toll plaza, to be executed within 24 months.

VLCE has taken up the project with sophisticated state-of-the-art equipment, such as concrete paving train of 8.5 mtr. width with DBI and TCM imported from USA, Cone crusher 200 TPH capacity, BL-pegson make, imported from UK and batch type Hot-Mix plant of 120 TPH capacity- imported from China and having vast experience of recently completed a identical project of Satara Kolhapur.

Maharashtra, the home state offers huge opportunity

VLCE is already executing Rs 64 crore worth of Pune Municipal Corporation sanctioned projects that are needed to to improve the infrastructure in the city, under the work of Integrated Road Development Project (IRDP). Under the IRDP programme, Pune Municipal Corporation will be taking up construction of Roads, and junction, development works, bus bays, footpaths, provisions for laying services and various cables, culverts, bridges, flyovers, tunnels, elevated roads, subways.

While Phase I comprised tenders worth Rs 87 crore, Phase-II, Pune Municipal Corporation tenders would spew out orders worth Rs 5000 crore .

This is the opportunity

In 2 years from now a Rs 145 crore organisation could very easily have become a Rs 500 crore outfit with a substantive increase in profitability. This when the Equity would have merely doubled up to Rs 10 crore after the already announced equity placements are undergone.

I think the current price of Rs 260 is a good entry point for this stock.

Lavanay I think you miss the point of shorttermers thread.His id itself is explanatory.Why dont we leave this thread just to his ideas (which are very interesting and may make some of us money...maybe ) and why dont you open a new thread where we can read what you say.Let's leave this thread to shorttermer and any comments on his posts, may we please.?
IVRCL Infra.

On my metastock system, i was tracking IVRCL by MA, after research. Looks ripe for a breakthrough next week. cant upload the file of the chart, too big... will PM Traderji and ask how to do it.

anyway when i post that it has given the signal next week, the buy should be around 720-740 levels, conservative stop-loss at 683.5 and risky-type stop-loss at 650. First target is around 790, but looks poised for bigger targets.

anyway will try to post the chart file. Other TA enthusiasts note the MAs are 3 and 30 days.


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