TECH-nikaal ANALysis...!

[iyerboi]

Multiple instances of this pattern was successful in predicting the extent of retracement of a major trend. Now question is, will this pattern hold good this time...!

Answer is, i don't care...!

All i know is i got an awesome risk reward trade to look forward to... The price i pay to know if the pattern will hold is very small compared to the reward i'll get if it does hold.

Whole market is looking bullish and is dreaming of 5100 now. Excellent time to play contra...! A lot of trapped bears have licked wounds and have reversed to long...! now that the whole heard is bullish and optimistic, market might not oblige....!

Options OI points to strong build up on the 4900 call and bulls are cementing the 4800 put level with equally strong build up.

end of the day it all boild down to a 15-20 point loss potential vrs a 100-300 point gain opportunity...!

will initiate the trade tomorrow...!

hmm... interesting!.

btw pardon my ignorance as im a new bloke - wht is the technicals used here? danke!!

 

[iyerboi]

hmm... interesting!.

btw pardon my ignorance as im a new bloke - wht is the technicals used here? danke!!

- stochs?!! though i dont hv a clue abt wht it is

 

[sunny_cool]

Was missing your valuable posts Linko sir... U make me think weather to continue trading or not :rofl:
Weather to put time & efforts to learn TA
But I know I will continue reading your posts & keep learning

Sorry disturbing the flow...But couldnt resist myself from posting

 

[TradeJoker]

after reading this thread i decided to quit trading, when i trade my parents always says 'game khel na band karo, koi kaam dhoondo

 

[linkon7]

Was missing your valuable posts Linko sir... U make me think weather to continue trading or not :rofl:
Weather to put time & efforts to learn TA
But I know I will continue reading your posts & keep learning

Sorry disturbing the flow...But couldnt resist myself from posting

after reading this thread i decided to quit trading, when i trade my parents always says 'game khel na band karo, koi kaam dhoondo

Problem with TA is that it makes u believe trading is very easy. We believe that market can go only UP or DOWN, so all we need is a simple pattern and trade it with discipline and becoming a multi-millionare is a piece of cake. Doesnt work that way.

TA contributes to about 20% to our overall success in this field. Spending 90% of our time in perfecting just 20% contributing factor of our success is a mission doomed to see many heart burns.

TA is all about educated guess work. Assumptions need to accepted with the risk involved that we take when placing a trade. Every trade has equal chance of failing no matter how strong the pattern. So how we manage the trade is FAR FAR important than the trade signal generated by TA.

We need TA for the signals... But we have to develop our mindset to accept that all signals can go wrong. Understanding of the market's structure tells us which signal has higher risk - reward ratio. But we also need to accept that the basic premise of TA is history will repeat itself. And it need not work out the way we hope. Markets can remain irrational far longer than we can remain solvent.

Market doesnt move because of TA. It moves because different people have different views on the market. If the market is weak and everyone is waiting for higher levels to go short, then despite the weakness, the direction of the market will be a path of least resistance and most likely profitable direction will be north.

Bottom line is, its all about traders making trading decision and their desperation to act give us a difference in order flow that move price up or down. We use TA to isolate where one group of traders are under stress. where their assumption will be proven wrong and when they'll be forced to act. That's when we take our signals and it has higher probability of clicking. There is no guarantee that it will click, but just that ODDs are in our favor.

 

[linkon7]

 

[iyerboi]

Multiple instances of this pattern was successful in predicting the extent of retracement of a major trend. Now question is, will this pattern hold good this time...!

Answer is, i don't care...!

All i know is i got an awesome risk reward trade to look forward to... The price i pay to know if the pattern will hold is very small compared to the reward i'll get if it does hold.

Whole market is looking bullish and is dreaming of 5100 now. Excellent time to play contra...! A lot of trapped bears have licked wounds and have reverased to long...! now that the whole heard is bullish and optimistic, market might not oblige....!

Options OI points to strong build up on the 4900 call and bulls are cementing the 4800 put level with equally strong build up.

end of the day it all boild down to a 15-20 point loss potential vrs a 100-300 point gain opportunity...!

will initiate the trade tomorrow...!

Maan gaye ustaad!! excellent call. Wish i'd followed

 

[TradeJoker]

ok linkonji, just asking , if the market is in good trending move and TA ppl making huge profit wud u create this thread? Or is it this sideway market is the reason to create this topic by u?.and u said(without saying) TAs are clever fools.

 

[linkon7]

hmm... interesting!.

btw pardon my ignorance as im a new bloke - wht is the technicals used here? danke!!

Maan gaye ustaad!! excellent call. Wish i'd followed

When the spike happened on the upside, mera halath kharab ho gaya tha...!

My system SL was 4891.35 and it came dangerously close to hitting the stop. Luck played a hand this time. But only after the trade matured nicely in my desired direction i can breathe easy.

Now why would u follow my or someone else's analysis. I know when my assumption is proven wrong by the market and i can exit my trade accordingly. If my sl was taken, then i would re-enter short on break of 4873 with the HOD as SL.

Make your own assumptions and trade them accepting the fact that the assumption can go wrong. If proven right, then know how to manage the trade.

best of luck...!

 

[iyerboi]

Now why would u follow my or someone else's analysis. I know when my assumption is proven wrong by the market and i can exit my trade accordingly. If my sl was taken, then i would re-enter short on break of 4873 with the HOD as SL.

Make your own assumptions and trade them accepting the fact that the assumption can go wrong. If proven right, then know how to manage the trade.

best of luck...!

Nah! tat was just a comment... i dnt use any1s calls, rather blame myself than others.

The spike upward ter IIP data and the massive fall killed me today - proved wrong on both. Ur luck played a good hand, mine ruined me though...SL bhi nahi lagaane ko mila....

Chalo achchi seekh mil gayi aaj.