Set and Forget - Index Futures Break out

[ag_fx]

I am Back
Thanks ST Da for your message and reopening this thread. Here are some of the developments from past few days:

1. Bank Nifty made +135 points on June 02 and lost -104 points on June 03. Other days had no trades.
2. Nifty lost -50 points on Jun 03.

I ran more backtests on this system and realized that for me to automate the entire set up, will take some time. There are a few technicalities I am looking to add - purely systematic. For example, I noted that several times in backtest, the trades were triggered at 14:30 or afterwards. With the intention of closing trades at 15:15, such trades could be avoided. I am not sure what impact on PNL it will have.

Secondly, I noted that best wins are on days when Nifty or BankNifty have literally one way movement. BankNifty saw trades going from +500-600 to +100 in minutes. Such is the nature of the beast. However, it also made 1200-1500+ points wins too. I have to automate a logic to trail the stop perhaps. Right now the system doesn't have it.

Also, there is a slightly more aggressive version of this system(which doesn't wait for confirmations) that did well in some years. If someone is managing trades manually, the aggressive levels can help. I don't intend to post those here.

Lastly, as per my promise - I will post a new thread sometime over the weekend. It should have some good takeaways for anyone looking to trade more systematically.

Cheers

 

[ag_fx]

Trade Levels for: 05-Jun-2020
BankNifty:
Buy at 21210, SL at 21100
Sell at 19550, SL at 19650
Nifty:
Buy at 10120, SL at 10070
Sell at 9960, SL at 10010

 

[Happy_Singh]

Trade Levels for: 05-Jun-2020
BankNifty:
Buy at 21210, SL at 21100
Sell at 19550, SL at 19650
Nifty:
Buy at 10120, SL at 10070
Sell at 9960, SL at 10010

Can you post some historical levels for BNF,
Maybe avoiding recent months can post values for any quarter of your choosing


.

 

[mevaibhav]

Thanks for your valuable inputs

 

[ag_fx]

Trade Levels for: 05-Jun-2020
BankNifty:
Buy at 21210, SL at 21100
Sell at 19550, SL at 19650
Nifty:
Buy at 10120, SL at 10070
Sell at 9960, SL at 10010

EOD Update:
No trade on Bank Nifty.
Nifty triggered a long and closed at EOD for +20 points.

 

[ag_fx]

Can you post some historical levels for BNF,
Maybe avoiding recent months can post values for any quarter of your choosing


.

You mean the breakout levels? My code as of now does not keep a tab of days where the breakout levels were not triggered. it only tracks levels when they were triggered. I can answer any question you may have. What are you seeking to get those levels for?

 

[ag_fx]

I would've ignored - except that this guy is a Mod and thus deserves a valid response.

And here is what I will offer - I will start a thread, in which I will disclose a rather simple system that can make money. I will share the rules, the money management, the entries and exits. It will not be as mathematical driven as my own system, but that should help the ball rolling towards making traders think systematically. Once I do that, probably you and other doubters would understand why I can't and WILL NOT share details of my current system here.

As promised in my post above, I started and posted a thread that discloses an entire End-to-End System for traders. Check it out here:

https://www.traderji.com/community/threads/teach-a-man-to-fish-–-rise-of-machines-version.109301/

 

[Happy_Singh]

You mean the breakout levels? My code as of now does not keep a tab of days where the breakout levels were not triggered. it only tracks levels when they were triggered. I can answer any question you may have. What are you seeking to get those levels for?

Its Ok

Usually if one can get levels for tomorrow,
then it should be easy to get them for yesterday
(that's how we would back test)

With a sizeable data (say 100 data points) it's easy to see how it works
say trades triggers only for 15% of days etc etc
further not really interested in dry statistics,
would have loved to see it on charts, that way i get something out of it
else, its just your statistics, good that its working for you

Thanks


.

 

[ag_fx]

Its Ok

Usually if one can get levels for tomorrow,
then it should be easy to get them for yesterday
(that's how we would back test)

With a sizeable data (say 100 data points) it's easy to see how it works
say trades triggers only for 15% of days etc etc
further not really interested in dry statistics,
would have loved to see it on charts, that way i get something out of it
else, its just your statistics, good that its working for you

Thanks


.

Yes you are right. I can manually look at past 100 days of data and put down the levels. But not looking to do that anytime soon. There are already 5-7 days of data points in this thread. Every week 5 will new get added.

It wouldn't really help on putting these levels on charts. Because my method doesn't factor in charts' supports or resistances. It is simply based on OHLC data at Daily and Hourly format.

I have set up another thread with fully disclosed trading rules. Perhaps that can be useful to you? Link in my signature.

 

[ag_fx]

Trade Levels for: 08-Jun-2020
BankNifty:
Buy at 21780, SL at 21670
Sell at 20610, SL at 20710
Nifty:
Buy at 10270, SL at 10220
Sell at 10060, SL at 10110