As we are not fund managers, and talking about retailers, u must be agrred to, that very few can take more than 2/4 (different scrips not lots) future positions at a time.
Now My point is by simply exploring the system one can watch the stocks making monthly/quarterly/yearly low/high, and subsequently we can judge the weaker and stronger stocks to trade accordingly in one or two or best few stocks giving stronger signal in any direction to trade with in own system .
I'nt it a good idea to select from those list of stocks, which are lesser in number to select with, instead rigorous, sector analysis and then again to analysing stocks from each sector, decided to pick stocks to trade from each sector?
Let the Fundamentalist/Economists/Fund managers do the things, not we the short time trader.
It's precisely because retailers cannot afford to diversify much that they need to be more rigorous in their stock selection. Sectoral analysis can be an additional tool (and not the ONLY tool) in this process. (Once you narrow down to a few sectors your 'list of stocks' actually reduce to a 'lesser number' - so i don't see how this method increases the workload)
Where's the big harm in retailers adopting some of the best practices of Fund managers (at least to the extent possible with our tools & information access)? And it's not that big Fund Managers have all the advantages. Nimble traders can outperform Funds through quick churning of their small portfolios. Sectoral rotation can be part of a
structured method of achieving this.
Why can't the trading goal extend beyond successful trades to greater ROCE (even for retailers)? (Moreover, outperformance on ones winning trades would act as an insurance for the inevitable losses that will happen from time to time)
IMHO, there's more to a robust trading methodology than just Buy-Sell signals. First & foremost (& like all things durable) it needs to have a strong foundation, a solid framework. And (like most other functional 'systems' including economic systems, businesses) there's a Macro & Micro aspect to it. Sectoral Analysis can be used to to fortify the macro framework.
Taking a couple of 'live' examples from this board as illustration:-
Sectoral Analysis can be incorporated in the SMART system, either as a primary component of the stock selection process or as a secondary filter (This would be an addition at the macro level; the micro aspects of the system - entry, exit, trade mgmt etc.- can remain unchanged)
Likewise, a pattern that Asishda has been pointing to of late, in various threads - essentially a Climax bar/Churn bar pair - can be a valuable* addition at the micro level (trading insight & tactics).
Finally, forget my views They're inconsequential; but surely the views of a highly experienced trader (Page1, post #5 of this thread) deserves some attention.
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* (And i better be careful what i call 'valuable' in public. CV may well come up with a Data Mining & Analysis report dismissing as 'nonsense' my gullible beliefs based only on random observations, circumstantial evidence & a statistically insignificant dataset
)