Restoring Traders/Investors Faith into Investing
- Thread starter Einstein
- Start date
- Tags portfolio tracker value investing warren buffett
PowerGrid FPO
As this is an FPO, I was looking at the last offering as to judge how they have valued the price band of the current. They have priced it at the same level as three years ago.
This indicates that there has been no growth in the cos for the past 3 years. Next if we look at the current balance sheet and compare it with the situation of the last offering we can see that even though other factors are more or less same, we are seeing higher amount of debt on the balance sheet which amounts to double of last year.
Interest pressure from this will decrease the profits of coming years. In fact this is the highest amount of debt i have seen for any PSU. On a fundamental basis you would rather just burn your money than invest in this FPO.
Sure the stock could go up but currently is trying to discount the 5% discount being given to retail investors. Agains this rally will be purely excitement based, specially if nifty is riding new highs. Other wise I do not see any reason why other analysts and brokerages are recommending this FPO.
As this is an FPO, I was looking at the last offering as to judge how they have valued the price band of the current. They have priced it at the same level as three years ago.
This indicates that there has been no growth in the cos for the past 3 years. Next if we look at the current balance sheet and compare it with the situation of the last offering we can see that even though other factors are more or less same, we are seeing higher amount of debt on the balance sheet which amounts to double of last year.
Interest pressure from this will decrease the profits of coming years. In fact this is the highest amount of debt i have seen for any PSU. On a fundamental basis you would rather just burn your money than invest in this FPO.
Sure the stock could go up but currently is trying to discount the 5% discount being given to retail investors. Agains this rally will be purely excitement based, specially if nifty is riding new highs. Other wise I do not see any reason why other analysts and brokerages are recommending this FPO.
I previously valued exxon mobil @ at 650 Billion $, but after some correction it seems like exxon mobil should have market cap of around 600-620 billion US$. buffet invested when the market cap was 380 billion$. current market capital is 415B$ I think he will sell the stock when the price is around 135-145US$ per share.
There is an arbitrage opportunity present in the power grid FPO. There is the 5% discount from the price band for retailers. Now the strategy is that we can get allotted ont the FPO and short the jan series of the future as it is currently higher than that of the FPO price after discount.
Assured profit here guys. Retailers are assured to get full allotment of shares if one hurries. apply for that and short the stock in jan futures at above 91.
Welcoming all and any queries related to stocks and fundamental analyis.
Assured profit here guys. Retailers are assured to get full allotment of shares if one hurries. apply for that and short the stock in jan futures at above 91.
Welcoming all and any queries related to stocks and fundamental analyis.
The worst is that you could not be allotted the amount. This way you would be naked short. Right now we will cover our shorts with the delivery.
I was looking into that, but it is my personal feeling that delivery would not come in the DEC series because of the holiday on 25th and the expiry is on 26th.
It is personal choice and we can only speculate as to on which month the delivery will come.
I was looking into that, but it is my personal feeling that delivery would not come in the DEC series because of the holiday on 25th and the expiry is on 26th.
It is personal choice and we can only speculate as to on which month the delivery will come.
Allotment cut off is now 15 days max from closing date i.e 6th Dec 2013, hence no question of NOT getting the allotment within Dec series which closes on 26th Dec., hence I think its better to do it in current series.
Partial allotment can be another scenario. I have applied for 6 members in my family for 6X2250 shares and have shorted 2 lots (4000 shares) yesterday at 95.60 !
My thinking is : If FPO gets subscribed 3 times, I ought get 4000+ shares allotted.
Partial allotment can be another scenario. I have applied for 6 members in my family for 6X2250 shares and have shorted 2 lots (4000 shares) yesterday at 95.60 !
My thinking is : If FPO gets subscribed 3 times, I ought get 4000+ shares allotted.
Portfolio: 2013
I made this portfolio last year purely based on my fundamental research, results were really good but this portfolio was not able to beat the S&P 500 which surged 35%. however this is nifty...
Average return includes profit/loss of some other stock which i had removed because of mistake I made in fundamental analysis.
luckily i learned alot from my mistake which should not be repeated in 2014 portfolio which I am going to post with stock details soon.
I made this portfolio last year purely based on my fundamental research, results were really good but this portfolio was not able to beat the S&P 500 which surged 35%. however this is nifty...
Average return includes profit/loss of some other stock which i had removed because of mistake I made in fundamental analysis.
luckily i learned alot from my mistake which should not be repeated in 2014 portfolio which I am going to post with stock details soon.
If you are comparing S&P 500 to your portfolio then you are not comparing apples to apples. S&P 500 represents risk borne by an average investor while same does not hold true when you are investing in India.
Market risk premium for both the markets are different and then you need add the interest rate parity as well (lets not go into the details) Crux of the matter is that set a right benchmark for your investments. NSE or BSE indices might be a good benchmark for you if you investing in India. If you able to bear the benchmark consistently then you are generating alpha(net of transaction cost and taxes) else you are better off by investing in low cost index funds.
This is one of the fundamental mistakes that we make because risk is not same in a developed economy and in an emerging economy.
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