shortterm trade/ swing trade
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here u must reqd eod data .... a software ..preferably some risk reward analysis
some low risk entry tactics and stop-umbrella to save from rain.
u have to define entry characteristic .
1. entry after break out over longterm resistance zone
2. after twice bounce in support ..price just starts moving up.
3. sector starts moving up..stock has good rel strength comparison within sector.
stop
......below 3% of last week low
if not 4% up move occurs within 5 trade days..use
time stop
profit target 8-10% from entry..however after 5-6% price is NOT HOLDING ie.showing not to move further infact going down about 1-2 %
....
get out with small profit...DONT turn profit into loss
for system study see beyond ta..by Tusher chande
next position trading
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personally i decide only some shortterm winner to be extended for long.
its basically on chart ..after trend change suggested entry at predetermined pt
for me some% up with volume increase...in metastock RSC EXPLORER candidate must be in upperside.
yes i use eye ball technique and pattern failure[ in h&s when instead of fall price starts move up and
w.pattern price slowly starts moving..acceptance of price]
my idea given money in past..i dont know whether shall it work now.
IMP:support base has to be created.....
another criteria...when nifty starts moving up again after retracement
Enter good candidate[presently who r in near yearly high ]
Third unexpected good result published and buy volume shows high demand
Most imp part of position trade is stock list...here u know from back ground move shall continue..further.....as u try for bigger profit ,failure rate is high.
hence u must have inbuild moneymanagement system to get out with small loss and add on winner.
Say
being in known field i must track some news on company..
also result out of infy(weather indicator in software) ..how +ive it is , so how it shall affect midcap computer company..
As position trade is a judgement game..hit of the moment decision should NEVER be taken..infact temporary fall is a great buy oppurtunity
Strength indicator on 2week chart basis [ ie converting data on 10day high-low-close basis available in metastock] is good way to see.
however stop and checking of nifty must...its better to see advance-decline curve as in
www.icharts.in
For further study understand extended bullmarket and volatility condition
and see after result out how price is behaving
system implementation
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1. assumption .....condition of trade....
if it does not exist no trade
2. entry..particular signal
3. holding profit one...give time.
4. exit..with profit target
with loss.
5. contingency plan..to save skin.
6. write after completion of trade what i learn ..implementation vs. reaction of me based on price.... ..what actually works.
OTHER ELEMENT
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U factor..how to be neutralised so that i can think right...before taking position i must have an opinion but PRICE must confirm my opinion otherwise i must use stop and book loss and throw away opinion.
MARKET HAS TRENDINESS AND ALSO UNPREDICTABILITY ELEMENT. NEWS AFFECT MARKET [UNKNOWN EVENT]....MAJORITY TRIES TO GUESS WHAT MAJORITY MAY DO , TAKING RISK OF PREDICTION BY PUTTING MONEY BUT READY TO RETREAT IF WRONG........PUT MORE MONEY WHEN RIGHT.
Here is my personal opinioned model on positional trade
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u have to work on prediction model in which chance of RIGHT/BEING WRONG has to evaluated.
a. company result..good business../..20% weightage
b. macro economy + moneyflow....40% weightage
c.sector business ..priority 20% weightage
d. other factor..operators game/random factor ..20% weightage
total 100%
ALWAYS TAKE CHANCE OF BEING WRONG 40%...SO THAT IF WRONG ...MUST BE PREPARED
by the chart , i SEE how others r viewing..ready with my move ..
tv news guide me how fools shall behave,..many a time i am wrong ..but i stick to it.
For TA it takes time....the same chart looked by 3lakh ta enthuaists
hardly 200 shall be right....
....as trading is not a game of perfection , 50%accuracy is sufficient.
read...HUNTER AND THE HUNTED,