Reminiscences of a trade-learner , journey to become a PRO

Status
Not open for further replies.

Mr.G

Well-Known Member
#81
What are your thoughts on fundamental analysts? Not TV ones but the real one who actually do stuff.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#82
Comments on trading by price

I normally detest distributing ADVISE,I should have this Mind-Set that we should never try or Dream of trading with Indicators.....Any Indicator even a conventional MACD is just good enough to Trade Market as basic purpose is to get confidence.
We trade Price & Price have a PERSPECTIVE ,that is the Bigger picture.If you cant see the bigger picture in one cursory glance to a chart then be assured you have to have add 1000 hrs of Screen time....otherwise use a Longer period MA to guide you about the bigger trend.
i have seen many old traders of my age use simple Pivot only to determine the Bigger picture ,there analogy if the Price is below pivot ,then bigger picture (-)ve & they will trade towards long when extreme support is approaching.
Now 2nd stage is identifying the Trend ,how ? As per OTA young trainer-, HL HH or LH LL ,simple no damn indicator only Price action Nothing else.

We now have the Bigger picture we also have the Present Ongoing Trend in Wave forms.

Now we are to initiate the Trade TOWARDS the Bigger picture in the Ongoing waves reversal zone.Say we intend to Long & Mkt moving Down wait & wait until you get HH & HL in lower time frame.
Do u need a Trigger now?.........No just enter the trade & flow with price.
.......................................................
Implementation
after finding & polishing ,what works for u unlearn all other things. Last thing is very difficult.....indians have tendency of garbage in......though relentlessly I suggests to check utility first and sharpen own tool.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#83
Starting on TRADING SYSTEM
...................................................................................................
Since after experiment , boys and men r apart..we can move further.
to see where we stand as a trader ..can we improve our trading ?
min 50 trading have been taken ..min 20 correct trade .

so the persons can understand trading is a search for oppurtunity.
losing trade may appear any time.
understand hot topic black swan.
concept of hunter and the hunted.

the basic of reward/ risk...when situation is out of hand
when trading is within comfort level.

You must have seen one 1bull-bear cycle..or as a pro 100% retracement and comeback.

philosophy of trade : market is war arena..ruthless fighter can only survive

: trading offers great no of oppurtunity to pick.A position
may be oppurtunity or a trouble[loss]...nobody knows
while picking,What it shall be.TIME will unfold......it is profit making one or take money out of you.

corollary :do i know how to trade?if yes, how to do effectively
[trading performance]
specific method to be followed again and again[system]
system vs. individual psychology ----- TUNING

element : experience
market research and checking data for validity
testing [ ofcourse u must have ability to test]
position management

if no system : poor trade result occurs with emotional trading.

loss of oppurtunity[ missing oppurtunity due to fear]wrong expectation comes.
Even with system,when personal psychology not match with particular style,it fails.
hence a system of timing must have
1. set up condition
2. entry
3. exit...profit target
4. risk analysis
5. exit ..contingency plan

1st principle
..................ABC
A ACTIVATION ...TRADE ENTRY
B BELIEF .. if trade continue as wishes ok.
C CONSEQUENCE , If price turn opposite get out

DIFFERENT CONDITION OF MARKET
..................................................
1. RANGE BOUND MARKET PLAY PLAN
2. TREND MARKET PLAY PLAN
3. MOMENTUM BASED BREAK OUT PLAY PLAN
4. -MOMENTUM / AT TOP QUICK SHORT PLAN


Day trading , short term , position trade and investment..4 r different scenario . condition for success in each ..has some peculiarity.

value investment [ works if u fit there.not suitable in present market]
...buy good stock with av p/e + when price starts rising in weekly chart.

for trading another concept..which shall give more score..consistently

u have to choose...1run day trade
2 run swing trade
4 run position trade
6 run multi bagger....nomore exists(may occur if big fall bring market to 3500nifty level)

[ if u r master trader,try some portion of day winner to HOLD..SCORE 2RUN...........
[balanced greed ] view similarly on swing...BOOK 50% PROFIT IN SWING TRADE..LET OTHER 50% TO RUN FOR FURTHER PROFIT
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#84
day trading system
..........................
master your craft.practice and practice...ignore all others is the mantra
............u have to understand how price reflect everything..suitable indicator(derivative from price).. ..to maintain strength...and eye for order flow....
thats all...alas! one is sufficiently difficult...3 is awesome in real time.

SO u must have some method to understand price increament shall continue
and then another when price dilution coming.
[objectively a programmer can do]2min/10min ma x...also 15min rsi has some use...big order coming in sell side has its impact.
whatever it may be , real time execution is key.alert helps
........................................................................................
high probable trade
............................
its the directional bias...where most waiting watchers r ready to join..
market buying(selling) r coming...big volume r increasing

concept is use momentum ...act now.

Another concept a trend started yesterday 3pm..hence further steam left.
scan at night for candidate.(BTST).....without any news. on real time..sudden volume surge..price is also moving up.ACT NOW ..NO TIME TO THINK make money

note: this works i see last friday .......... work tomorrow also
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#85
shortterm trade/ swing trade
............................................
here u must reqd eod data .... a software ..preferably some risk reward analysis
some low risk entry tactics and stop-umbrella to save from rain.

u have to define entry characteristic .
1. entry after break out over longterm resistance zone
2. after twice bounce in support ..price just starts moving up.
3. sector starts moving up..stock has good rel strength comparison within sector.

stop
......below 3% of last week low
if not 4% up move occurs within 5 trade days..use time stop

profit target 8-10% from entry..however after 5-6% price is NOT HOLDING ie.showing not to move further infact going down about 1-2 %
....get out with small profit...DONT turn profit into loss

for system study see beyond ta..by Tusher chande

next position trading
..............................
personally i decide only some shortterm winner to be extended for long.

its basically on chart ..after trend change suggested entry at predetermined pt

for me some% up with volume increase...in metastock RSC EXPLORER candidate must be in upperside.
yes i use eye ball technique and pattern failure[ in h&s when instead of fall price starts move up and w.pattern price slowly starts moving..acceptance of price]

my idea given money in past..i dont know whether shall it work now.

IMP:support base has to be created.....
another criteria...when nifty starts moving up again after retracement
Enter good candidate[presently who r in near yearly high ]

Third unexpected good result published and buy volume shows high demand

Most imp part of position trade is stock list...here u know from back ground move shall continue..further.....as u try for bigger profit ,failure rate is high.
hence u must have inbuild moneymanagement system to get out with small loss and add on winner.
Say being in known field i must track some news on company..
also result out of infy(weather indicator in software) ..how +ive it is , so how it shall affect midcap computer company..

As position trade is a judgement game..hit of the moment decision should NEVER be taken..infact temporary fall is a great buy oppurtunity

Strength indicator on 2week chart basis [ ie converting data on 10day high-low-close basis available in metastock] is good way to see.

however stop and checking of nifty must...its better to see advance-decline curve as in www.icharts.in

For further study understand extended bullmarket and volatility condition
and see after result out how price is behaving
system implementation
..............................
1. assumption .....condition of trade....if it does not exist no trade
2. entry..particular signal
3. holding profit one...give time.
4. exit..with profit target
with loss.
5. contingency plan..to save skin.
6. write after completion of trade what i learn ..implementation vs. reaction of me based on price.... ..what actually works.

OTHER ELEMENT
........................
U factor..how to be neutralised so that i can think right...before taking position i must have an opinion but PRICE must confirm my opinion otherwise i must use stop and book loss and throw away opinion.

MARKET HAS TRENDINESS AND ALSO UNPREDICTABILITY ELEMENT. NEWS AFFECT MARKET [UNKNOWN EVENT]....MAJORITY TRIES TO GUESS WHAT MAJORITY MAY DO , TAKING RISK OF PREDICTION BY PUTTING MONEY BUT READY TO RETREAT IF WRONG........PUT MORE MONEY WHEN RIGHT.

Here is my personal opinioned model on positional trade
.................................................. ...........................
u have to work on prediction model in which chance of RIGHT/BEING WRONG has to evaluated.
a. company result..good business../..20% weightage
b. macro economy + moneyflow....40% weightage
c.sector business ..priority 20% weightage
d. other factor..operators game/random factor ..20% weightage

total 100%

ALWAYS TAKE CHANCE OF BEING WRONG 40%...SO THAT IF WRONG ...MUST BE PREPARED

by the chart , i SEE how others r viewing..ready with my move ..tv news guide me how fools shall behave,..many a time i am wrong ..but i stick to it.
For TA it takes time....the same chart looked by 3lakh ta enthuaists
hardly 200 shall be right....
....as trading is not a game of perfection , 50%accuracy is sufficient.
read...HUNTER AND THE HUNTED,
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#86
here i write about a system..developed by Jeff....5 day momentum method
...................................

background : strong trending market
principle : pullback for fewdays and then again resume move
1-2-3-4 pattern [3day pullback]
pullback near 20dma and again moving up.
why? with this pullback ..mf and hni plan to enter.hence new moneyflow..

scan.; 1.strong trending candidate
2. use oscillator ...watch pullback
3.trend reverse...now u enter.

indicator: adx..strength of direction
rel. strength ..ok
filter ; adx>30..+di>-di..di=demand index
rel strength..compare to other stock /nifty ..BETTER.
stockastic..%k<40 oversold indicator
set up
.......... BUY DAY. 1.TICK ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGH.
2. OR NEXT DAY BUY ABOVE 3%UP
CONDITION : %K MUST BE MOVING UP

STOP : 1% BELOW LOW OF LAST DAY
OR 1.5 ATR BELOW FROM LOW OF TODAY
PATTERN LOOKS...1-2-3-4 ...4 IS INITIATING PT ABOVE 2.

PROFIT TARGET : 7% IN 3DAY
MAXM TIME 5DAY..OTHERWISE TIME STOP.

IF PROFIT OCCURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED..ALLOW 50% HOLD TO RUN FOR TOTAL 10% PROFIT
strength of the system is % k must be allowed to move up..to be applied to bull market.
........this system is NOT suitable in bear market............

Any trading system is based on your trading philosophy...plan new arsenal...to fight better.
so in this trade universe....3terms i introduce...exhausive, exclusive and intersection ie. interrelation between 2 element. I use 3 statistical term....
EXHAUSIVE..U HAVE TO GO INTO DETAIL
EXCLUSIVE..NO RELATION EXISTS..INDEPENDENT ELEMENT
INTERSECTION;INTERRELATION BETWEEN 2 ELEMENT...INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET...INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MANY COMPANY IN A PARTICULAR SECTOR.

exhausive gives micro view.

So before reaching to become a master...one goes through various way to question and answer this 3 element...[may be in different name]....he knows how far he understands...his limit..so now practice on regular basis[system]

and follow it diligently[discipline]


now u see all good potential trade in search mode..nothing but ..can be expansion of 3 idea.

Another idea....yes EXECUTION.Pl UNDERSTAND SLIPPAGE IS A BAD ELEMENT....u miss ur total effort.... idea in real sense...so the difference with beginner and pro clearer to me..its IMPLEMENTATION.
EVERYTHING U CAN VISUALISE...,BUT THEY WILL BE VALID ON IMPLEMENTATION BY U.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#87
Random trading /fractal system ; its great to see theory of Dr Bill William , and quantum trade software, principle of 3ma,allegator concept, behavior of natural tendency of price reversal at defined pivot........yes i made money out of that theory, but not as told,.....actully by confirmation through PRICE.
.yes it is the best filter.........confirmation by price.

Remember 3 force co exist in market...........trend, reversal tendency, fractal [random factor]...........u as an observer what is dormant NOW..also check who will rule soon ie. near future.
If u use any discreation cautionary note:IGNORANCE is highest risk, MOOD swing next,OVERCONFIDENCE then

SUPERIORITY of advance learner;

1)nightly preparation and scanlist

2)WHAT IF scenario preparation ......and past trade analysis .......yes thats all.
ALSO sharpening ur skill , if u r a programmer , practice more programe for further objectivity.......for execution ........bigger size position.
also future long term skill to learn.......holding winner, add if possible.
PRO now develop a portfolio. a list of stock(based on past trade & understanding of Market)... condition to trade,.......
how quickly u understand danger..........and get out quickly from bad trade

Some also prepare ......sector sp strategy/ and study fund rotation principle.
other imp aspect of PRO...........they dont search holygrail........its already with them, occasionally they lose, but they self tune again.
JUST looking back their journey to professional trading to success road......its matter of some tuning.......hey they have done that in past.........when situation was tougher.
MAXIMUM HE NEEDS A CLOSE CELL TO THINK AGAIN IN MIND-MOVIE .
PRO"S thought process
....................................
..
i see , but before entry i confirm by price.
i do consistently...........i am doing in last so many year.
i shall be not in market...........as situation is in unpredictable zone , even with my experience.
i have seen in 2 cycle of bull-bear-volatile market.........now first i can define present market context...........so its an opportunity.
losing trade is part of trade business,only i have to check in journal exit/entry rules followed.
i am a specialist in this market, in this type of trade.
regularity and health is also my priority........so i am a better trader
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#88
understand difference of predictabiliy vs. speculative.......
for me anything of happening chance upto 59% ........is speculation.so NONO

upto 65%.....i can not distinguish.
but 65% and above.....it may happen...........a zone suitable for set up/candidate for trade........price confirmation .......follows actual trade.
many a speculative idea r winner.........but a missed trade also......many a trade candidate move southward............that is part of my system.....to hit stop.
probabilistic analysis suggest ..........i have to live on reality

If u believe, u r Advance level of trader but psychology reqd some improvement ,here is Mastering the Mental Game

• Identify your personal “trade barriers”
• How to mentally focus and follow through on your personal plan before, during and after the trade.
• The use of New Habit Formation to negate harmful emotions and reinforce positive emotions that affect your trading success and effective decision-making.

• Successful discipline is about skill-building and a structure of routines, habits & protocols.DECIDE first Playing not to lose and THEN play to win.
.................................................. .................
If u trade for some yr ,but want to get better return
Advance TA stratregy is right answer.Index Futures traders can analyze the market’s trends and behaviors in order to classify, distinguish and properly time their trades. You’ll learn to determine the market’s overall direction and then take a position that is harmonious with the market. These will be focused around pure price-based technical analysis using the major indices as forecasting bias.you have to learn:
•Identify trends in multiple time frames through dynamic correlation.
•How to use analytical tools to apply logic, concepts and strategies to changes in the market.
•How to select the appropriate strategies and adapt your trading plan accordingly

Use of IMPACT TA ,including GAP + Understanding the Market from Economic Data Releases and Sectors Rotation
•Quantifying a supply and demand imbalance for opportunity
This shall be followed by Rule-Based Strategies for Trading
o Buying the Supply Breakout
o Buying at Demand Levels
o Selling Short the Break of Demand
o Selling Short at Supply
o Low Risk Entries from lower timeframe & Profit Targets
 
#89
Sir,I want to join your live class please pm me,I am unable to pm you
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
#90
In india i find very poor knowledge on trading...particularly to guide trading in real sense..hence i try to do a school concept .School is of upto class 12...10 +2
...classes can be not a year in a sense,...may be 1month to someone...may be 3 Month
to other .Class 1,2......10,...may be most of u already know
...only structure wise differently represented.
Individual ...student who is ready to learn
Teacher...trade mentor/successful trader...learned from hard knock from market...like me .
Library...ur soft copy and hard copy books
study and learning at own pace as per time availability and hard work
Exam centre...market
pass and grade...money earning at market
performance evolution..trade journal
plus pt/: By doing this u get crystal clear view
..............................
class 1
.............
what is stock market....financial system of a country....economy,business environment of a country,moneyflow in a country
stability ..in political sense,..war ...flood/earthquake....how price behave in those event
Class 2
............
why one is trading in market?
stock trading system
f&o
loss aversion.
willingness to learn and test idea.....where i stand
class3
.........
..
my plus pt.....my minus pt
how i become a trader?
what r the quality of a successful trader?
which quality i want to be within me......how i shall try myself to achieve it.....discipline and behavior modification
class 4
...........

order entry system,market order..stop order..limit order
margin
money management
probability of a direction
low risk trade.
concept of leverage
stop concept
derisk model
scan concept
class 5
..........
market condition,trade entry condition
style of trade,matching of trade style and money earning oppurtunity
importance of progressive stop ie. winning trade must not go to trade loss...worst case it is no profit no loss
class 6
.........
potential loss due to miss , so miss factor must be considered in the part of trade...ie. efficiency of execution
all bad situation and phenomena ...how to react in each of them
(so that confusion of deer..paralysis by shock ...is solved....so u can act now)
NO MORE WHAT SHALL I DO NOW...AS U KNOW WHAT HAS TO BE DONE
class 7
...........
oppurtunity search..utilise oppurtunity[after grading it]...and encash as per situation availability.
1st case...low risk trade
2nd case...short term trend trade
3rd case... small amount leverage high risk break out trade
last case... random trade
....
exit system
3different case...
1.for swing trade
2. for position trade
3.random trade
...remember all 3 r different
class8
.........
fundamental of a stock
why a stock shall move up
why a sector will move up
relation of a business and profit
earning potential..and growth
what makes a business fullmoon ...glowing...now slow decay
...prepare this for every stock in ur list

class9
...........
technical analysis....
gap strategy
reversal strategy...oscillator play plan,divergence strategy
channel trade concept
trend trade concept..ma,aroon...strength of a trend, directional biasness or continuation

class 10
...........
learning of software for trading
scanning system
risk reward analysis
advanced money management
which stock not to trade even after signal...and when not to trade
volatility tool analysis
volume price analysis
.....................................
since u read so much now time to give exam....mind it its board exam ...check how much u can apply in real market....time 6month...money 10% increase on a fixed amount,say 2lakh..
so u pass..
all trade result to be analysed why taken and in writing...both entry and exit reason and of position size..why not more or less?
how far luck helped u in that trade
how far trend strength is utilised?
do u believe in reversal...while holding trade
after hr analysis of ur mind while tracking actual trade
.............................
so all trade r analized...balance after 6month suggest 10% increament in a/c..u pass
.................................................. ............................................

if failed, reason of failure....and in which zone
reread entire course and amalgamation
...................
so u r in class xi....now
decide to study further in school[u may prefer to..go to earn from market....still i suggest to study further ...knowledge helps
11thyear
...........
system design....where i have done better than other sucessful traders?
...prediction on market
...execution skill
...implementation of system[whatever u think]
...stoploss following...both protective and sar style
...mind control
note..here system design means tuning of system for actual profitability again to score high[earn more]
class12
..........
which type of trade u r mastered??
alternatives r......
a. investment...contrarian call
b. investment by value approach
c.day trade
d. short term trade.....swing style momentum
e. swing style...reversal
f. position trade...support buy ...consolidation
g.position trade ..break out
...............
now only one out of this 7....to be choosen to trade/invest in life ....others r simply to be erase out[forget]...the best one..u have now,...to conquer world
......create a boundary .........follow discipline..discipline..discipline[here i fail ]
....only on that condition following /ocurring in market...i shall trade...otherwise no...

...this is my class 12..exam..light to see otherside of world
........
tuning and more return ...compare good with better trader...logically improve further..
... as i try to learn from market..on weekly basis.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads