Reminiscences of a trade-learner , journey to become a PRO

[oilman5]

Dear Oilman ji,

In the current phase of bearish markets.
Except for IT and Pharma most of the sectors are bearish in the daily TF and few are down even in the monthly and weekly.
It is expected that Nifty has more fall.
Is this the right time to short strength expecting that the bearish sentiment will catch them than the already beaten stocks Or better to sell weakness ?
.

...........................................................................
Most people will not answer it ,as they dont know.Most Pro dont tell, as its their bread & butter , but u will get it.
1] in daily + weekly + monthly bar > suggests DOWNTREND
so play from short side.
( but do u know if it is that dangerous fall,who has bought........we know to sell , somebody must BUY...........its the indian MF r buying,.......they r not fool, collectively they have good experience , they know their responsibilty.)
2] Momentum suggests market go down..........it will be true in shortterm.
When u can buy cheap...........when price comes down, when price goes south........on Bad news.................So when it shall come to support , pl forget what u listen............just buy for long haul.
3] You believe in sell, to buy later,..........so to sell.........must allow price to move up ,..........just now have seen 5740.........short trade entered.
4]Money making is never for majority.........its a game of trapeze.Risk mitigation is must........play big when RIGHT.

 

[oilman5]

II] FOR ADVANCED LEARNER (5-10 YR IN MARKET)
Now I am moving to 2nd chapter.........yes for advanced learner...........so no silly questions
(actually its a compilation/reflection when I learn from PRO of India/abroad about 10 yr 2001-2011 & ofcourse by trial & error in MARKET)
So its application in multivariate market condition- many a good profitable traders view/work I am preveledged to see , shall be reflected here , infact I am indebted to them .I spend about 20% of my profit on book/course/software in that 10years.
Definitely TA /its application shall come . Psychology shall be treated as foremost quality & KISS to be tried to some extent.
Analogy from CHESS & bridge shall be given, Clarity on thought will be slowly unfolded.
OK let us start

 

[oilman5]

Chart is nothing but reflection of market participants...interpretation...what is ur perception?
what on earth is your superiority to predict right side........RIGHT ......most of the time.
Yes only by watching u can learn how to watch.......do it...
...learn swimming only by swim,learn driving only by driving..........yes u reqd zeal...
.zeal not to trade but to watch.....how beautifully its telling ...untold story of market....
...u can check accuracy later..........by reading newspaper nextday.
Have u heard word 'volatility'..........its nothing but predictive power is poor by socalled analyst ....at random in statistical term.
So conceptually u have to kill your investment attitude..........develop a feel for price.
...be indifferent to habit of listen to news[media hype].
so u know what u r doing...................let us come to game of caution ......speculation.
Self question how far u r right by yourself?...so far no help comes.....can u survive on own?if yes.......how is ur ESP?(extra sensory percept).......
...just shuffle a deck of cards............draw 1card ........can u guess?
draw another......2nd guess.......r u right this time?........ok .....let us make this simple......
Distribute...52 cards in 4hands....now see 1 hand[13cards].....can u guess other cards?
.....so in other hands what is there.......can u see by observing other 13 cards......
......just check your accuracy level and perception..........now by seeing 3rd hand, anybody can tell.......other 13[52-13-13-13=13]
...............if u dont like cards......simply take a dice ...1-2-3-4-5-6.let it be rolled.........
but u guess......beforehand.....outcome......50 observation...,say sl no vs. your chosen no,
actual observation......how many times both r right..........just see.
if u r less than 40% correct.....throw away......just understand speculation is a loser's game.
THEN HOW U SHALL TRY?
ANSWER : Be reactionary............follow trend.........when random ,simply sit out.
understand trend........then trend continuity...........at what condition u shall enter....
...how u shall know ....BY TAKING ENTRY ..market shall tell "U R WRONG THIS TIME"...
.......simply get out.
THIS CONCEPT ,QUESTIONING,ART OF LEARNING..........SHALL MADE A GOOD SELF DEPENDED TRADER
definitely trader in u,..........will get good oxygen to live long

 

[oilman5]

I just put some facts
1.MARKET IS NOT PREDICTABLE,PATIENCE PAYS
2.BASED ON OPPURTUNITY AS DEFINED ,EFFICIENT MARKET OBSERVER CAN MAKE MONEY OUT OF MARKET.
3.MANY A TIME U R WRONG,JUST LOSE LESS.......SOMETIMES U R RIGHT.........USE BETTER MONEY MANAGEMENT TO EARN OUT OF IT.
4.TREND PLAN IS EASIER TO FOLLOW
5.TRADEZONE IS EASIER TO DEFINE...........DIFFICULT TO MAKE MONEY OUT OF IT.
6.KILL UR INVESTMENT AND GAMBLING ATTITUDE ..........BEFORE THEY RUIN U.
7.WITH TIME U CAN LEARN..........WITHOUT A DEFINED SYSTEM......ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO SURVIVE IN MARKET
8.UNDERSTAND TREND TERMINATION.
9.RISK ANALYSIS IS MUST,THROW AWAY....HOPE,FEAR,GREED
10.DEFINE A TIME FRAME IN WHICH U CAN OUTGUESS OTHER TRADER ON REGULAR BASIS[UR EARNING STATEMENT ,DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS TELLS U].......JUST STICK TO IT

 

[oilman5]

so what r the factors advanced-learner should see?

1.understand that price is always balanced..............but may have a biased in longer time frame.........say last week chart suggests -bias for nifty.........so on Monday by confirmation by price.......u r supposed to short .....allowing profit to book , if reverse move starts.
if u can not see......bearish scenario.......u r yet to learn it....so u r novice.....
profit from price....is not that easy. Somewhere....u have some dilemma/ opinion..
...fear/hope...........which is self destructive.
2. so a system is called for.....3way price can move........up down nowhere.
be ready .........for all three.....i.e. strategic planning........
.....now based on your signal trigger from live market price .......u enter.
Get out..........when continuity in that direction no more high probability.

 

[oilman5]

Demand supply is an imp concept...extensively taught in OTA...
..........here students of economics have superiority.
Higher the demand ,price shall move up in stock..........if more money is chasing....so is the demand. Money flow concept......correlate with float analysis.......suggests what may be the expectation.......strength of buyer's conviction .
Other one is giant footprint...............what big fund managers/fii r doing.......
.....try to get that info........NOT MEDIA HYPE. Chance of earning big from market by u , easier.......when u flow in same direction .........not against them.
Read to understand.......accumulation and distribution.........study in on chart.......
definitely u can tell what is actually going on.Yes .........if u can say accurately....
....present phase an actually bearish distribution,so u can avoid bulltrap.
U know when accumulation at lower price shall start......simply take position.Naturally to understand this concept........basic support/resistance u know...
.....and their intricacy i.e. dynamic support/resistance +pivot/swing pt.
Take any software....study the price(after market hr)....spend some hr....soon u know them.

 

[oilman5]

See the chart.......to know how other pros shall behave, also other majority traders.(who will give money to u).......their expected line of action.
so give weightage ...who can win easily.......strength and conviction in trend.
Thats why pro makes big money........out of market........strong visualisation and watchful eye.........a master in execution and money management.
ORDINARY MORTAL SHOULD DREAM OF IT........so that they can be atleast a pro.

 

[oilman5]

let us see some successful pro traders .....u can choose any one as role model
trader A............a scalper......a future player......a trade vetaren, believes that some condition of market(trigger) shall make a directional move possible,......based on extensive backtesting, develop programme code....real time explorer signal ,enter trade....
book profit/loss after some minute....naturally its need not to say %accuracy very high .
trader B..........another scalper.......future player, screen addict,programmer.....believe in no psychological issue.........follow dynamic strength/weakness zone .......take reversal trade........accuracy level very high,also have discreation of position size,based on signal strength.
traderC............half hr signal based trader.....came to tv,believe in pattern....buy on low,reverse penetration of half size candle, stop at1 tick below lower candle......no programme.....just eyeball,watch multi chart in iris,-16 stock @a time two screen=32 stock,..around 70%accuracy level,has a pro friend to save his skin other 30%by flashing danger alert to get out on wrong trade.
trader D........an exceptional knowledgable person,maturity of highest level ,use hrly chart,calmly trade based on trend........study mostly at night...sometimes based on based on very good setup play future/call-put........use trade continuity concept+mm.
trader E........a nervous trader with big money.......guides his boys to trade now....dont click himself ,prefer break out principle..........tells them to execute at stop zone...... instruct them to add 5times on right trade,...ask them@3-30 what happened,..meanwhile he dont see the position again in intraday. i ask him-WHY?
...his reply .......since he knows himself, 2nd observation on price will affect his objectivity, instead he search for macro view and study again after 4pm....
moreover this 15000/-pm salary boys can handle better execution and observe scenario after entry.
trader F........eod player, master in news study.........whether stock is ready for dumping/may create euphoria.
cool enough to get out if wrong.
................
trader G.......amateur trader [different profession...loser in day trade]has a list of around 80 stock in different sector,all he knows of fundamentals.......at what condition they shall move up.....track result and order flow,also macro economy.so when big fall comes he sees how far big fall possible,when pro starts accumulation....
....from chart he see just accumulation.......and big volume charning at top to get out. no he dont use stop.......but definitely sell total portfolio.......yes this amateur earn 50%return in all last 5 yr,........trade only on those stock where he knows,has a notebook......on which fundamental change offer an oppurtunity for which stock[groupA and midcap.
....definitely give 2hr a day in study...and weekend portfolio analysis.....definitely buy after big fall .......a contrarian character.
.................................................. ...........
yes i have seen them...... in their maturity.......though 6 of them r different...deadly accurate in their craft.....common theme...to reach there they evolve...and stick to it.
Another thing.......they r all honest
[though trader E hides to his staff,trader C braggs regarding market opinion as profession.trader F....regarding his job success]...........commitment r exceptionally high.

 

[oilman5]

Why I don't mentor ?
Answer: I don't require ur money...........so I am giving here.I can get money from market by trading.Moreover it takes some year to learn/teach.Sometimes back i have meet a group of 15, so called trade dreamers..i told them ...'none of u r suitable for trading'..
Come to reality...dreaming is good to start new business....hard work pays there........here u reqd some typical knack and do alone attitude. U have to do habit of interpretation...go with the flow.......unfortunately most people r blocked by own trap......clean slate is reqd.TRADING is not everybody's cup of tea
Improve ur knowledge by studying first....broad market analysis
Advance learners also lag............clear thought process ,
I have seen the programmers block - hate to lose...so he books only at 0.5-1% profit
Great trader can travel for oppurtunity from one time frame to another..........because of his ta depth and calmness.
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Breakfast analyst....just like kitty party......discussion[ladies excuse me i dont like to hurt].......useless talk no progress.......max development for them to be a call giver.

 

[oilman5]

have u seen some trader-scalper?
..........basically they r good at computer signal based trading,easily implement stop,stick to strong zone intraday......normally have zero opinion.mostly stick to specialist.
................................
short term trader...........primarily trade based on momentum,...5/1hr chart ......signal validity........some hr,study eod to find out candidate.....in market hr use predefined confirmation for entry and stop or fixed target for exit.
position trader.......he knows what he is doing.........experience taught him when to enter and exit. at dynamic support..........enter considering little fall is possible, or take high probability break out trade.........mostly they use eyeball/direct price study

Here is another intellect persuation...........currently developing in indian hype.....
...trading best on expected result/after result move. Here ,mainly from analyst/mba background plan with news how price shall react ........prescribed continuity ,some time try to outguess market........Mostly lose money.
On the contrary.........safe buy like FM when market falls r safer method[contrarian]