Paper trading options

#41
Hi AW10,

1) Thanks for the encouragement. I have learnt few things and will summarize them in future post when time permits. Also, I will be eagerly waiting for your comments.

2) Also, regarding ST method, I noticed that it is somewhat risky since he has shorted 2 lot @5100 and long 1 lot @5300. If nifty tanks then it can give us sleepless night. Offcourse the probability of that is very small but the whole point is that still there is some fear in your heart and you have to monitor the market continuously.

3) If you notice in the above strategy (strategy 2) if I dont have initiated 4900 put then it will also give 300 point reward potential with 35 point risk and we dont need to worry till nifty falls below 4700

4) The whole point of my strategy was not to worry about the market, if you are ready to loose the risk amount then you dont need to monitor the trade once you initiate it.

5) I thought about another strategy to bring down the risk further. Below is the BID ASK rate for FEB series.

Code:
	PE (25 FEB 2010 Expiry series)	
	BID	ASK
5300	175.2	177.75
5200	127	127.85
5100	91.05	91.5
5000	65.45	68
4900	45	45.8
4800	29.25	30
4700	19.4	21.6
4600	14	14.35
Suppose now if I make following spread
Strategy 1:

5300 PE long @ 177.75 (1 lot)
5000 PE short @ 65.45 (2 lot)
4900 PE long @ 45.8 (1 lot)
4800 PE short @29.25 (1 lot)

Breakeven - 5231.6
Risk - 63.4 + 5 (brokerage) = 68.4
Max Reward - 231.6 (Nifty @5000)
No worry till nifty is above 4667 @ expiry i.e. approx. 550 point downside protection

Strategy 2:

5200 PE long @ 127.85 (1 lot)
4900 PE short @ 45 (2 lot)
4800 PE long @ 30 (1 lot)
4700 PE short @19.4(1 lot)

Breakeven - 5146.55
Risk - 48.45 + 5 (brokerage) = 53.45
Max Reward - 246.55(Nifty @4900)
No worry till nifty is above 4551 @ expiry i.e. approx. 700 point downside protection

Strategy 3 (ST strategy):

5300 PE long @ 177.75 (1 lot)
5100 PE short @ 91.05 (2 lot)

Breakeven - 0
Risk - 0
Max Reward - 200 (Nifty @5100)
No worry till nifty is above 4900 @ expiry i.e. approx. 400 point downside protection


Can you tell me your view about the above strategies?
 
#42
Update at the closing of 21 Jan 2010

Nifty spot - 5093.70

Strategy 1: (Initiated on 21 Dec 2009)

Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 33.95(1 lot)
Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 2.45 (2 lot)
Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 1.75 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*33.95 - 100*2.45 + 50*1.75 = 1540.0
Profit = 1540.0 - 4700 = -3160.0 Rs

Strategy 2: (Initiated on 06 Jan 2010)

Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 215.0 (1 lot)
Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 34.30 (2 lot)
Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 13.50 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*215.0 - 100*34.30 + 50*13.50 = 7995.0
Profit = 7995.0 - 3795 = 4200 Rs


Nifty spot - 4952.60

Strategy 1
Bought Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 185 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 75 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 55 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 12000 - Rs. 7500 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 54700
Total risk - Rs. 4500 + Rs 200 = Rs. 4700
Max Profit - Rs. 10300 (Nifty @ 4700)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.19
Breakeven - 4906

Strategy 2
Bought Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 108 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 26.5 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.9 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 6245 - Rs. 2650 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 53795
Total risk - Rs. 3595 + Rs 200 = Rs. 3795
Max Profit - Rs. 11205 (Nifty @ 5000)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.95
Breakeven - 5224.1

WARNING: The above strategy is only for learning purpose. Please don't initiate any real trade based on this thread. I am a novice and try to learn through paper trade.
 
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#43
Update at the closing of 22 Jan 2010

Nifty spot - 5036.0

Strategy 1: (Initiated on 21 Dec 2009)

Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 48.40(1 lot)
Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 2.90 (2 lot)
Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 1.80 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*48.40 - 100*2.90 + 50*1.80 = 2220.0
Profit = 2220.0 - 4700 = -2480.0 Rs

Strategy 2: (Initiated on 06 Jan 2010)

Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 281.40 (1 lot)
Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 49.0 (2 lot)
Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 17.70 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*281.40 - 100*49.0 + 50*17.70 = 10055.0
Profit = 10055.0 - 3795 = 6260 Rs


Nifty spot - 4952.60

Strategy 1
Bought Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 185 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 75 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 55 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 12000 - Rs. 7500 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 54700
Total risk - Rs. 4500 + Rs 200 = Rs. 4700
Max Profit - Rs. 10300 (Nifty @ 4700)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.19
Breakeven - 4906

Strategy 2
Bought Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 108 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 26.5 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.90 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 6245 - Rs. 2650 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 53795
Total risk - Rs. 3595 + Rs 200 = Rs. 3795
Max Profit - Rs. 11205 (Nifty @ 5000)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.95
Breakeven - 5224.1

WARNING: The above strategy is only for learning purpose. Please don't initiate any real trade based on this thread. I am a novice and try to learn through paper trade.
 
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#44
Update at the closing of 25 Jan 2010

Nifty spot - 5007.90

Strategy 1: (Initiated on 21 Dec 2009)

Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 50.25(1 lot)
Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 1.85 (2 lot)
Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 1.20 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*50.25 - 100*1.85 + 50*1.20 = 2387.50
Profit = 2387.50 - 4700 = -2312.50 Rs

Strategy 2: (Initiated on 06 Jan 2010)

Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 301.75 (1 lot)
Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 50.50 (2 lot)
Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.00 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*301.75 - 100*50.50 + 50*16.00 = 10837.50
Profit = 10837.50 - 3795 = 7042.50 Rs


I think we should book profit for second strategy since nifty is already close to max profit point i.e., 5000 and if it falls or rises then our profit will come down.
But for just learning purpose lets continue with our position till expiry.


Nifty spot - 4952.60

Strategy 1
Bought Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 185 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 75 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 55 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 12000 - Rs. 7500 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 54700
Total risk - Rs. 4500 + Rs 200 = Rs. 4700
Max Profit - Rs. 10300 (Nifty @ 4700)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.19
Breakeven - 4906

Strategy 2
Bought Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 108 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 26.5 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.90 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 6245 - Rs. 2650 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 53795
Total risk - Rs. 3595 + Rs 200 = Rs. 3795
Max Profit - Rs. 11205 (Nifty @ 5000)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.95
Breakeven - 5224.1

WARNING: The above strategy is only for learning purpose. Please don't initiate any real trade based on this thread. I am a novice and try to learn through paper trade.
 
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#45
Update at the closing of 27 Jan 2010

Nifty spot - 4853.10

Strategy 1: (Initiated on 21 Dec 2009)

Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 168.0 (1 lot)
Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 3.80 (2 lot)
Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 1.55 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*168.0 - 100*3.80 + 50*1.55 = 8097.50
Profit = 8097.50 - 4700 = 3397.50 Rs

Strategy 2: (Initiated on 06 Jan 2010)

Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 456.70 (1 lot)
Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 169.80 (2 lot)
Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 78.15 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*456.70 - 100*169.80 + 50*78.15 = 9762.5
Profit = 9762.50 - 3795 = 5967.50 Rs


Nifty spot - 4952.60

Strategy 1
Bought Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 185 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 75 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 55 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 12000 - Rs. 7500 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 54700
Total risk - Rs. 4500 + Rs 200 = Rs. 4700
Max Profit - Rs. 10300 (Nifty @ 4700)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.19
Breakeven - 4906

Strategy 2
Bought Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 108 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 26.5 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.90 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 6245 - Rs. 2650 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 53795
Total risk - Rs. 3595 + Rs 200 = Rs. 3795
Max Profit - Rs. 11205 (Nifty @ 5000)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.95
Breakeven - 5224.1

WARNING: The above strategy is only for learning purpose. Please don't initiate any real trade based on this thread. I am a novice and try to learn through paper trade.
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#46
You must be happy to strategy 1 getting into green today.
This did require huge down move of 400 points from 5300 level to the Breakeven point of 4906 in 7 days before expiry. (which may not happen every month)

Happy Trading
 
#47
Hi AW10,

Yeah, you are absolutely correct that it is not possible to have 400 points move just one week before expiry. However, I learn t one thing that patience does pay. If I would have initiated real trade then I would probably have book losses in both the strategy.


You must be happy to strategy 1 getting into green today.
This did require huge down move of 400 points from 5300 level to the Breakeven point of 4906 in 7 days before expiry. (which may not happen every month)

Happy Trading
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#48
I don't think so Dipesh. Patience is good in trading with profitable positions, not with loosing positions. One thing I have learnt here is to CUT (or limit) YOUR LOSSES, AND PROFIT RUN. It is important to be realistic here and leave all other standard human emotions, hope etc out of the market.

Happy Trading
 
#49
Update at the closing of 28 Jan 2010

Nifty spot - 4867.25

Strategy 1: (Initiated on 21 Dec 2009)

Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 132.75 (1 lot)
Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 0.0 (2 lot)
Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 0.0 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*132.75 - 100*0.0 + 50*0.0 = 6637.50
Profit = 6637.50 - 4700 = 1937.50 Rs

Strategy 2: (Initiated on 06 Jan 2010)

Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 432.75 (1 lot)
Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 132.75 (2 lot)
Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 32.75 (1 lot)

Net position - 50*432.75 - 100*132.75 + 50*32.75 = 10000
Profit = 10000 - 3795 = 6205 Rs


Nifty spot - 4952.60

Strategy 1
Bought Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 185 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 4700PE Jan series - 75 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4600PE Jan series - 55 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 12000 - Rs. 7500 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 54700
Total risk - Rs. 4500 + Rs 200 = Rs. 4700
Max Profit - Rs. 10300 (Nifty @ 4700)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.19
Breakeven - 4906

Strategy 2
Bought Nifty 5300PE Jan series - 108 (1 lot)
Short Nifty 5000PE Jan series - 26.5 (2 lot)
Bought Nifty 4900PE Jan series - 16.90 (1 lot)


Brokerage - Rs 50 per lot = 200 Rs for 4 lots
Margin requirement for 1 lot of nifty short = Rs. 25000
Total Investment - Rs. 6245 - Rs. 2650 + Margin requirement for 2 lots of nifty shorts + brokerage for 4 lots = 53795
Total risk - Rs. 3595 + Rs 200 = Rs. 3795
Max Profit - Rs. 11205 (Nifty @ 5000)
Reward/Risk ratio - 2.95
Breakeven - 5224.1

WARNING: The above strategy is only for learning purpose. Please don't initiate any real trade based on this thread. I am a novice and try to learn through paper trade.
 
#50
Today, is the right time to look back and see the performance of the strategy.

I am attaching the consolidated summary in excel file for both the strategy. Will try to summarize the learning in another thread.
 

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