Nifty Future Day Trading System with 100% return on 30/40 trades a year.

#1
About one and a half year ago, I opened a thread on a simple day trading strategy. Later I coded a trading system with adapted idea from that setup and this system trades Nifty and Bank Nifty futures only. what is interesting is this automated system makes 100% + on a trading account of 30000 with single lot trades on Nifty futures. The only issue is it make on average 3 trade a month.

The backrest report from 2012 Jan to 2013 Sep 19 shows the system exposure is less than 10% percent of the total time period, only 74 trades. In 2012 it made 142% percent on an account size of 30000 after deducting 3 points towards cost and slippage. In 2013 up to September 19, it made 99%. It makes similar profits on bank nifty also.

I am planning to auto trade it, but the problem is the account will be idle for most of the time, as it make 3 trades on average a month.

Now I am seeking your views on such a system. 100%+ annual return is good, but the trading account is idle for most of the time as it make around 35-40 trades a year and all trades are day trades.
 

anup

Well-Known Member
#2
Why are you worried about idle time?.. If you are getting consistent returns, dont bother much about idle time !!

About one and a half year ago, I opened a thread on a simple day trading strategy. Later I coded a trading system with adapted idea from that setup and this system trades Nifty and Bank Nifty futures only. what is interesting is this automated system makes 100% + on a trading account of 30000 with single lot trades on Nifty futures. The only issue is it make on average 3 trade a month.

The backrest report from 2012 Jan to 2013 Sep 19 shows the system exposure is less than 10% percent of the total time period, only 74 trades. In 2012 it made 142% percent on an account size of 30000 after deducting 3 points towards cost and slippage. In 2013 up to September 19, it made 99%. It makes similar profits on bank nifty also.

I am planning to auto trade it, but the problem is the account will be idle for most of the time, as it make 3 trades on average a month.

Now I am seeking your views on such a system. 100%+ annual return is good, but the trading account is idle for most of the time as it make around 35-40 trades a year and all trades are day trades.
 
#4
i couldn't make out much from the simple strategy thread... even indiastockspotter.com links are not working...

as far as i understood you are buying a new high scenario in a lower time timeframe... playing for continuation of trend.. for a move of 40 points in nifty...

can you please do a detailed writeup of ur modified system...
 

umeshmandal

Well-Known Member
#5
About one and a half year ago, I opened a thread on a simple day trading strategy. Later I coded a trading system with adapted idea from that setup and this system trades Nifty and Bank Nifty futures only. what is interesting is this automated system makes 100% + on a trading account of 30000 with single lot trades on Nifty futures. The only issue is it make on average 3 trade a month.

The backrest report from 2012 Jan to 2013 Sep 19 shows the system exposure is less than 10% percent of the total time period, only 74 trades. In 2012 it made 142% percent on an account size of 30000 after deducting 3 points towards cost and slippage. In 2013 up to September 19, it made 99%. It makes similar profits on bank nifty also.

I am planning to auto trade it, but the problem is the account will be idle for most of the time, as it make 3 trades on average a month.

Now I am seeking your views on such a system. 100%+ annual return is good, but the trading account is idle for most of the time as it make around 35-40 trades a year and all trades are day trades.
If we break it up :

To earn 100% on 30000 in 40 trades, each trade avg gain should be : 750 net
Add 3 points for cost and slippage : 50*3 = 150
i.e. on an average per lot if we can gain 750+150=900, then this can be achieved ! This amounts to 18 points per Nifty lot per trade !
Trust it is achievable if any good system is traded "with discipline" !

Your seeking view because the system is idle most of the time seems such a "silly thing" (excuse me) but it indeed is and seems more so because it comes from a person who has coded a strategy for auto trading ! :eek:
 
#7
If we break it up :

To earn 100% on 30000 in 40 trades, each trade avg gain should be : 750 net
Add 3 points for cost and slippage : 50*3 = 150
i.e. on an average per lot if we can gain 750+150=900, then this can be achieved ! This amounts to 18 points per Nifty lot per trade !
Trust it is achievable if any good system is traded "with discipline" !

Your seeking view because the system is idle most of the time seems such a "silly thing" (excuse me) but it indeed is and seems more so because it comes from a person who has coded a strategy for auto trading ! :eek:
Here you are basing your calculations on assumption that all 100 % trades will be successful, but in practice it will never be the case. Assuming 50 % success rate and a RR ratio of 1.5 :1 and 3 points for expences we need about 27-30 points in every winning trade provided our loosing trade is not more than 10-12 points.

Smart_trade
 

umeshmandal

Well-Known Member
#8
Here you are basing your calculations on assumption that all 100 % trades will be successful, but in practice it will never be the case. Assuming 50 % success rate and a RR ratio of 1.5 :1 and 3 points for expences we need about 27-30 points in every winning trade provided our loosing trade is not more than 10-12 points.

Smart_trade
Yes, it was a bad ommission ! :p I had this in mind when I started writing the post and somewhere got distracted and posted without considering the 'failures' ! Thanks for pointing it out and correcting it.
 
#9
If we break it up :

To earn 100% on 30000 in 40 trades, each trade avg gain should be : 750 net
Add 3 points for cost and slippage : 50*3 = 150
i.e. on an average per lot if we can gain 750+150=900, then this can be achieved ! This amounts to 18 points per Nifty lot per trade !
Trust it is achievable if any good system is traded "with discipline" !

Your seeking view because the system is idle most of the time seems such a "silly thing" (excuse me) but it indeed is and seems more so because it comes from a person who has coded a strategy for auto trading ! :eek:

RKK has described the situation exactly.

The problem here, very frankly would not be the "system" sitting idle, but much bigger problem would be the "trader" sitting idle !

Remember the old saying : An empty mind is a devil's workshop ! :p
The problem is when we sit idle for a system with 15 trading sessions, then chances are that we will do some weird trades. If there is sort of virtual hosting of strategy on servers and I go out for the entire year on a holiday, then its ok, but that type of auto trading is beyond my capabilities now.
 
#10
Here you are basing your calculations on assumption that all 100 % trades will be successful, but in practice it will never be the case. Assuming 50 % success rate and a RR ratio of 1.5 :1 and 3 points for expences we need about 27-30 points in every winning trade provided our loosing trade is not more than 10-12 points.

Smart_trade
Avg winning trade is 2715 and avg. losing trade is 883. The win rate is only 53%. This system is picking up trending days with SL of 20 points.
 

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