Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[simple_trader]

These are my over all views for next one week or so -

- This one all know about, 5400 PUT has highest OI and 5600 call has highest OI, these are option support and resistance as of now.

- my over all view was the upswing to be ended between 5500-5550 spot. It seems to have ended. And possibly, we have started a down swing towards 5100.

- There are two possibilities for next week, it trades above 5400, then we can re-test 5470-5500 range again and fall from there.

- If we break below 5400 and trade for some time, then I think NF will fall to 5300 support zone and bounce from there.

- Over all I think market is going to surprise all in down side.

Happy Trading!

 

[hills_5000]

Hey,

I think a lot of people at Tj can figure this much out for themselves...

Would'nt it be better if one got into the SM mind and thought like them.. !!

The Market never does what it leads us to believe. One needs to think out of the box to try and gauge a movement which will be more profitable....

just my two bit... thanks to a very respected and godfather figure in this forum

These are my over all views for next one week or so -

- This one all know about, 5400 PUT has highest OI and 5600 call has highest OI, these are option support and resistance as of now.

- my over all view was the upswing to be ended between 5500-5550 spot. It seems to have ended. And possibly, we have started a down swing towards 5100.

- There are two possibilities for next week, it trades above 5400, then we can re-test 5470-5500 range again and fall from there.

- If we break below 5400 and trade for some time, then I think NF will fall to 5300 support zone and bounce from there.

- Over all I think market is going to surprise all in down side.

Happy Trading!

 

[simple_trader]

Hey,

I think a lot of people at Tj can figure this much out for themselves...

Would'nt it be better if one got into the SM mind and thought like them.. !!

The Market never does what it leads us to believe. One needs to think out of the box to try and gauge a movement which will be more profitable....

just my two bit... thanks to a very respected and godfather figure in this forum

Initial stage of wave/swing developing, it would make people bullish/bearish and confuse. 5400 will play key role for that in next week. Even if we know the swing/wave, market will never give money easily. Still we have to do hard work.

Market will always twist and turn. It makes us to believe something else than what it is going to do next. That's why sometime seeing EOD chart without any indicators, FII figures, OI etc., would give better idea about the bigger picture.

One nice example was Friday's trade, market took support around 20 EMA in morning, 5400 PUT were getting written in morning, and many had an idea that dow would go up, still market fell. I guess most people did not expect it. That's how market behaves!

 

[AlokTewari]

Even though Nifty has taken long time in crossing 5500 & logically it should not come down drastically too soon. But somehow it is looking to me that not much upside is left in near term & a 200-300 points fall could be round the corner. Present rally is purely liquidity driven. The bad news is liquidity can dry up overnight if world markets start tanking. Dow & S&P are not looking too good either. Sectorial rotation is almost over & midcaps & small caps have been rocketing for sometime which usually is the last leg of any rally. Large caps including RIL have nothing much to offer & the lone outperforming banking sector & BNF are shouting " Please short me" for last couple of days. Net Net upside risk is very small & downside profit is large. What should one do ? Go long or short ? No prize for correct answer. Take your pick.

Cheers !!!!

Alok Tewari

Friday's fall was just the trailer of 3 hours of movie yet to be screened. A day or two of upmove to keep everyone interested & then bigger fall. Though OI position suggests we may not go down below 5300, but OI position can change quickly. Sept. series of 5 weeks & I expect to see atleast 5200 if not 5100 before this series is over. Just a week back all analysts were super bullish & were putting upper limit at 5600. Now it has come down to 5500. What will it be next week ? VIX is at historical low & it can not remain this low for long time. If upper limit is slowly coming down what does it indicate ? Buy the Volatility & reap the profit on downside.

Cheers !!!!

Alok Tewari

 

[simple_trader]

I guess now this is 100+ points favor. Do one thing, write 50% quantity holding of 5300 PUT now at 5410 future level.

Means if you hold 2 lots 5500 PUT, write 1 lot 5300 PUT now. Risk taker, can be un-hedged.

Happy Trading!

Risk trader and non-risk trader must hedge now between 5300-5360 NIFTY range with 5300 PUT write (100% hedge, i.e. equal quantity 5300 PUT write). This is will help us to control risk a lot. Next support is around 5300. But take the hedge for time being. One must be sitting on 150+ NIFTY profit.

Happy Trading!

 

[simple_trader]

Risk trader and non-risk trader must hedge now between 5300-5360 NIFTY range with 5300 PUT write (100% hedge, i.e. equal quantity 5300 PUT write). This is will help us to control risk a lot. Next support is around 5300. But take the hedge for time being. One must be sitting on 150+ NIFTY profit.

Happy Trading!

Just one more thing, I do not wish to continue updating this position from now on. You may judge market and take the decision accordingly.

Views and updates are the same and will continue. But want to avoid recommendations etc.

 

[rrmhatre72]

Risk trader and non-risk trader must hedge now between 5300-5360 NIFTY range with 5300 PUT write (100% hedge, i.e. equal quantity 5300 PUT write). This is will help us to control risk a lot. Next support is around 5300. But take the hedge for time being. One must be sitting on 150+ NIFTY profit.

Happy Trading!

Hi ST,

I have 0ne lot of Oct- NF short at 5540.
What is the best way to hedge?

Buying Sept NF@5370? Writing Oct5200PE @110? OR buying 5400CE@85?

Or hold it with SL of 5420?

 

[simple_trader]

Hi ST,

I have 0ne lot of Oct- NF short at 5540.
What is the best way to hedge?

Buying Sept NF@5370? Writing Oct5200PE @110? OR buying 5400CE@85?

Or hold it with SL of 5420?

rrmhatre72,

Best of my knowledge it is better to write 5300 Sept PUT of the same quantity of your future position and hold both. SL is not a good way to trade in this case.

Happy Trading!

 

[SwingKing]

Will it or Won't it?

I think one question pondering every investor and trader on Dalal street is whether Nifty will crack or whether Nifty will rally? Virtually every investor is out there with one theory or other justifying what the markets should (will) do. In my trading and investing career, this is the first time when everyone seems so confused.

Some suggest volatility is at record low levels and hence markets should crack. Others suggest futures and options data is suggesting towards a crash. The never ending theories of Volatility, F & O, Harmonic patterns, Seasonality and Elliot Wave are all going for the toss. It's not only Technicals, but Fundamentals in their own are taking a beating too. Valuations are touch high, forward earnings are not encouraging, inflation is up, interest rates are rising and production if not slowing is not galloping either. So what should an investor/trader do at this point?

The best way to be in this market is to trade it. Some suggest volatility is too low to trade. Well I would request the skeptics to visit volatility data of stocks since 90's. Volatility is cyclical and currently we are in low volatility cycle. That's it !! This market is absolutely ideal for trading. However, there are few things we need to take care of. While trading these markets, it is an absolute necessity to book partial profits. In my other thread I have been posting my live index trades and have been showing how and when partial profits are booked. We are in a phase where trends are being established and reversed too quickly. Hence, we need to ensure, we take some profits off the table in order to keep our equity ticking.

As far as Investing in this market is concerned, I sincerely feel markets are fairly valued. Every year or two, we have got corrections of 15-20% and since the last time that happened was in June - October 2008, I guess we are due for one now. I would be more happy to invest when this dip comes. At this moment, we need to be objective. We need to be rational. And going by this, it seems more logical to wait for a dip rather than to invest in markets which are richly valued.

Coming back to what Nifty will do. I feel markets are hinting towards following its price action closely. By following, I mean, going with the flow. If you see some of my previous trades, I have exactly done that. And I feel at this moment this is the right tactic to adopt. Lets follow the market and let our theories rest in peace.

May the markets be kind to all.

Tc

 

[nimish_rulz]

Will it or Won't it?

I think one question pondering every investor and trader on Dalal street is whether Nifty will crack or whether Nifty will rally? Virtually every investor is out there with one theory or other justifying what the markets should (will) do. In my trading and investing career, this is the first time when everyone seems so confused.

Some suggest volatility is at record low levels and hence markets should crack. Others suggest futures and options data is suggesting towards a crash. The never ending theories of Volatility, F & O, Harmonic patterns, Seasonality and Elliot Wave are all going for the toss. It's not only Technicals, but Fundamentals in their own are taking a beating too. Valuations are touch high, forward earnings are not encouraging, inflation is up, interest rates are rising and production if not slowing is not galloping either. So what should an investor/trader do at this point?

The best way to be in this market is to trade it. Some suggest volatility is too low to trade. Well I would request the skeptics to visit volatility data of stocks since 90's. Volatility is cyclical and currently we are in low volatility cycle. That's it !! This market is absolutely ideal for trading. However, there are few things we need to take care of. While trading these markets, it is an absolute necessity to book partial profits. In my other thread I have been posting my live index trades and have been showing how and when partial profits are booked. We are in a phase where trends are being established and reversed too quickly. Hence, we need to ensure, we take some profits off the table in order to keep our equity ticking.

As far as Investing in this market is concerned, I sincerely feel markets are fairly valued. Every year or two, we have got corrections of 15-20% and since the last time that happened was in June - October 2008, I guess we are due for one now. I would be more happy to invest when this dip comes. At this moment, we need to be objective. We need to be rational. And going by this, it seems more logical to wait for a dip rather than to invest in markets which are richly valued.

Coming back to what Nifty will do. I feel markets are hinting towards following its price action closely. By following, I mean, going with the flow. If you see some of my previous trades, I have exactly done that. And I feel at this moment this is the right tactic to adopt. Lets follow the market and let our theories rest in peace.

May the markets be kind to all.

Tc

Jahanpana tusi great ho thanks kabool karo. Another cracking post! :thumb: