my views on Sensex

[adultvish]

I have just started to think about having trading as my full time profession; and ironically the market is reversing its direction. Well, it all goes with the life.

Anyway, given below are my views on sensex and its allies indexes.

BSE -Auto Index

as you can see in the image below, the trend line support has clearly been violated around 7200. Currently, the index is at 6927 and immediate support level is 6800. The support at 6800 can only be accepted in case the market takes a 'U' turn from current levels, otherwise, it is very likely to test the support levels at 6250.

Autosector has been a leader in upside movement of sensex and has been trending upside since July 2009 along the trend line. Fibonacci correction levels are
23.6% = 6900 which has already been accomplished
38.2% = 6400 which is a reasonable correction, even if the main uptrend remains intact. So, there is no point in fighting with the trend; and lets just wait for auto index to trade around 6250-6400

 

[adultvish]

BSE -Bank Index

As can be observed in the image below, the trend line of bank index of bse has been violated in Dec 2009 itself, but it tried to counter it and again met with the trend-resistance line in mid Jan 2010. I don't think, there is any need to give any more thought to this conclusion that bank Index of BSE has accepted the resistance and now going down to test its support levels of 9100 and 8550. Currently it is 9373 (closing on 28 Jan 2010).

 

[adultvish]

BSE Capital Goods

The capital goods index has accepted the resistance level of around 14400 twice, hence it can be taken as double-top acceptance level, which is said to be quite bearish signal. The trend line support has also been clearly violated. The index closed at 12961 on 28th Jan 2010 and the support levels are 12400 and 11700 respectively.

 

[adultvish]

BSE consumer Durables

The index has two whip-saws on its trend line; the first one occurred in mid July 2009 in the down side, while the second one occurred in mid Jan 2010 in the upside. Besides, the index is still in uptrend having trend line support at around 3650. the index closed at 3711 on 28 Jan 2010. Violation of trendline support, in case it happens, may take it to test another support level of 3450.

 

[adultvish]

bse FMCG

The index was maintaining its trendline support till mid Dec and after violating the support levels during mid Jan 2010, it surrendered to the resistance level. Currently trading at 2776 (close on 28 jan 2010) near its support level of 2700 violation of which may cause it to test another support levels of around 2550.

 

[adultvish]

bse Healthcare

The index has just violated its trendline support on 27th Jan 2010 after accepting a bearish double-top resistance level; hence become quite weak.
The support level for healthcare index is around 4350 which is quite below its current levels (closed at 4752 on 28th Jan 2010)

 

[adultvish]

BSE IT sector index

perhaps one of the most strong sectoral index has violated its trendline support level a day before yesterday i.e. on 27th Jan 2010; and now expected to correct strongly. BSE IT index closed at 5015 on 28th Jan 2010 and its support levels are very low i.e. at 4650 and 4300.

 

[adultvish]

BSE Metal

The index is quite volatile and, therefore, I had to draw two trend lines for its support levels. it closed at 16215 on 28th Jan 2010 which is just near its second trendline support level of 16000. Violation of 16000 level can cause gross correction in the index towards the level of 13000.

 

[adultvish]

BSE Oil and Gas Index

the sector appears to be still in trend and closed at 9896 on 28th Jan 2010 which is near to its current parallel support level of 9850. The trendline support is around 9600 violation of which can make it to test 8400. On the upperside, it seems to have accepted resistance level at 10800 (though it is not much clear but can be taken into consideration), which is a bearish signal of tripple top resistance level accepted.

 

[adultvish]

BSE Power

The index is still maintaining its trendline support. It closed at 3027 on 28 Jan 2010. The trendline support is at around 3000 levels violation of which can make it to test levels of 2800. apparently, it has also accepted the bearish double top.