My trade setups

[Anurag N]

PRESTIGE

Trade Status: Filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.29

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 1232.10

Target Price: 1380

Stop Price: 1117.40

View attachment 50673

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is in a good momentum right now. This stock in this sector is consolidating in a range as of now, after a massive bull run. It looks like it can rebound from the current price as it is testing multiple SPHs together


ENTRY REASONING

Strong support below the current price.


TARGET REASONING

Top zone of the weekly time frame range. Maybe will keep a partial position in case it attempts to breakout from the range


STOP REASONING

Failing all the SPH tests followed by the high vol support bar. If it does, then it will probably go near the bottom of the range which is too deep and doesn't make sense to hold if trading on a daily time frame.

Update on this position-

Today the price of PRESTIGE reached till 1355 and stayed there till the end of the market. This price is just 1.8% away from my mentioned expected target (read the reference post for the setup). I closed 50% of my position at the end of market @1355.

Although this hasn't reached the exact target, It would be very stupid to leave the entire 100% exposed over the weekend just to grab the remaining 2%. Also the price is anyhow in the upper zone of the daily range, so it can quickly reverse if the coming Monday is not so supportive.

Kept the remaining 50% in the hope of a breakout on the daily range. In case it doesn't show any strength of breakout on Monday, I will close this 50% as well.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

Today the price of PRESTIGE reached till 1355 and stayed there till the end of the market. This price is just 1.8% away from my mentioned expected target (read the reference post for the setup). I closed 50% of my position at the end of market @1355.

Although this hasn't reached the exact target, It would be very stupid to leave the entire 100% exposed over the weekend just to grab the remaining 2%. Also the price is anyhow in the upper zone of the daily range, so it can quickly reverse if the coming Monday is not so supportive.

Kept the remaining 50% in the hope of a breakout on the daily range. In case it doesn't show any strength of breakout on Monday, I will close this 50% as well.

Update on this position-

As mentioned in my last post, I didn't want to expose 100% of this position in case of a reversal the next day and hence sold 50% on Friday itself. Today the reversal did take place.
By the end of the market, a 2 bar reversal pattern is formed (going above and closing below the last bar with lesser volume). This indicates that it may further go for more correction.
It would have been very foolish to sit with this position seeing the winner turning into a looser. Hence I closed this position today at the end of the market. I sold my remaining 50% position @1325.11

 

[Anurag N]

As I mentioned in one of my previous post (quoted above), the steel industry looked very bullish and I was waiting for an opportunity to take some position here. Now it looks like a good time to make an entry, as market has done some corrections here and it looks ready to take a bounce.
I mentioned that JSWSTEEL looks strong. Along with JSWSTEEL, I scanned through other Metal industry stocks as well. Another name that looked interesting was GRAVITA. I'll be sharing my thesis for both these stocks down below so that you guys can decide which one to pick (or a mix of both).

1. JSWSTEEL

This is doing a multiple swing point retest on daily timeframe. More the number of swing points, higher the chances of regeneration. Also, this is supported by multiple high vol bars. The retest is happening with less vol which also supports the chances of a bounce from here.
View attachment 50699

I am targeting the price of 876.45, which is where it will start facing the first selling pressure. I am keeping my stop at 812.20. This is the point where all the 3 swing points will fail the retests and my thesis of regeneration will be proven wrong. The reward-risk ratio here is around 1.0 which is average. The next stock which I picked works better on the R/R front.

2. GRAVITA

This is also doing a retest on the daily timeframe, although this is retesting only one swing point. There is also good support vol provided by the breakout bar. The price here is at the bottom of the retest zone, which makes the RR ratio quite lucrative.

View attachment 50700
I am targeting price of 1090 which is the first resistance zone. I am keeping the stop at 926.70, which is where it will fail the swing point test and penetrate below the supporting bar. The reward-risk ratio here is 3.19

Both the stocks mentioned-above have some pros and cons. JSWSTEEL has more chances of successful regeneration, as it is testing multiple swing points and has way more supporting anchor bars. On the other hand, GRAVITA has more lucrative R/R. Also these are very different in terms of market cap (JSWSTEEL is a largecap whereas GRAVITA is a microcap stock). You can choose whichever fits well with your portfolio mix.

Update on GRAVITA position-

One position from the above worked out and the other didn't. JSWSTEEL worked as per the thesis and hit the target (check the earlier posts for reference). GRAVITA didn't work out as expected and started breaching my stop today. Closed this position @930.

 

[Anurag N]

CENTRAKBK

Trade Status: Active

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.34

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 66.20

Target Price: 76.40

Stop Price: 59.10

Weekly-

Daily-

WHY THIS TRADE

Finance sector looks to breakout, at least for short term. This one seems to make a range and currently lying at the bottom of the range


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest on 2 SPHs


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Penetrating below the range