My trade setups

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

This closed with +16% and reached the mentioned primary target. Sold 30% of my position @236. Didn't sell more as it looked very strong on closing. I will probably sell another 20% if it shows any kind of weakness at open tomorrow. The next target I am looking is around 250.

Update on this position-

This position was not going as expected as it started feeling the selling pressure today towards the end of the day. I was expecting for a bounce here so that it reaches the resistance area of 240. But now it looks like the bounce is most probable near the 200 area where, if price reaches, my position will be breaking even (except for the profits made on selling 30% earlier). It was better to cash in the profits made here rather than to wait for a bounce.
Hence, I sold my remaining 70% position @217.90. Maybe if the setup looks good, I'll buy again near 200 area.

 

[Anurag N]

PRESTIGE

Trade Status: Filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 67%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.29

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 1232.10

Target Price: 1380

Stop Price: 1117.40

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is in a good momentum right now. This stock in this sector is consolidating in a range as of now, after a massive bull run. It looks like it can rebound from the current price as it is testing multiple SPHs together


ENTRY REASONING

Strong support below the current price.


TARGET REASONING

Top zone of the weekly time frame range. Maybe will keep a partial position in case it attempts to breakout from the range


STOP REASONING

Failing all the SPH tests followed by the high vol support bar. If it does, then it will probably go near the bottom of the range which is too deep and doesn't make sense to hold if trading on a daily time frame.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on this position-

As mentioned in the last post, I kept 33% of JINDALSTEL in case it streches beyond the target zone due to its momentum. It did see the price surging here and went till 900 which also happened to be the Fib projections on weekly chart. At this point it started consolidating on short term and made a doji yesterday. Today it opened with weakness which was a good trigger to sell out my position. I sold my remaining position @894.

Side comment- On long term this still looks very strong, in fact Steel industry looks quite bullish. I would like to buy it again on some correction. JSWSTEEL looks good to me if it gives a little bit of reversal on overall market corrections.

As I mentioned in one of my previous post (quoted above), the steel industry looked very bullish and I was waiting for an opportunity to take some position here. Now it looks like a good time to make an entry, as market has done some corrections here and it looks ready to take a bounce.
I mentioned that JSWSTEEL looks strong. Along with JSWSTEEL, I scanned through other Metal industry stocks as well. Another name that looked interesting was GRAVITA. I'll be sharing my thesis for both these stocks down below so that you guys can decide which one to pick (or a mix of both).

1. JSWSTEEL

This is doing a multiple swing point retest on daily timeframe. More the number of swing points, higher the chances of regeneration. Also, this is supported by multiple high vol bars. The retest is happening with less vol which also supports the chances of a bounce from here.

I am targeting the price of 876.45, which is where it will start facing the first selling pressure. I am keeping my stop at 812.20. This is the point where all the 3 swing points will fail the retests and my thesis of regeneration will be proven wrong. The reward-risk ratio here is around 1.0 which is average. The next stock which I picked works better on the R/R front.

2. GRAVITA

This is also doing a retest on the daily timeframe, although this is retesting only one swing point. There is also good support vol provided by the breakout bar. The price here is at the bottom of the retest zone, which makes the RR ratio quite lucrative.

I am targeting price of 1090 which is the first resistance zone. I am keeping the stop at 926.70, which is where it will fail the swing point test and penetrate below the supporting bar. The reward-risk ratio here is 3.19

Both the stocks mentioned-above have some pros and cons. JSWSTEEL has more chances of successful regeneration, as it is testing multiple swing points and has way more supporting anchor bars. On the other hand, GRAVITA has more lucrative R/R. Also these are very different in terms of market cap (JSWSTEEL is a largecap whereas GRAVITA is a microcap stock). You can choose whichever fits well with your portfolio mix.

 

[Anurag N]

As I mentioned in one of my previous post (quoted above), the steel industry looked very bullish and I was waiting for an opportunity to take some position here. Now it looks like a good time to make an entry, as market has done some corrections here and it looks ready to take a bounce.
I mentioned that JSWSTEEL looks strong. Along with JSWSTEEL, I scanned through other Metal industry stocks as well. Another name that looked interesting was GRAVITA. I'll be sharing my thesis for both these stocks down below so that you guys can decide which one to pick (or a mix of both).

1. JSWSTEEL

This is doing a multiple swing point retest on daily timeframe. More the number of swing points, higher the chances of regeneration. Also, this is supported by multiple high vol bars. The retest is happening with less vol which also supports the chances of a bounce from here.
View attachment 50699

I am targeting the price of 876.45, which is where it will start facing the first selling pressure. I am keeping my stop at 812.20. This is the point where all the 3 swing points will fail the retests and my thesis of regeneration will be proven wrong. The reward-risk ratio here is around 1.0 which is average. The next stock which I picked works better on the R/R front.

2. GRAVITA

This is also doing a retest on the daily timeframe, although this is retesting only one swing point. There is also good support vol provided by the breakout bar. The price here is at the bottom of the retest zone, which makes the RR ratio quite lucrative.

View attachment 50700
I am targeting price of 1090 which is the first resistance zone. I am keeping the stop at 926.70, which is where it will fail the swing point test and penetrate below the supporting bar. The reward-risk ratio here is 3.19

Both the stocks mentioned-above have some pros and cons. JSWSTEEL has more chances of successful regeneration, as it is testing multiple swing points and has way more supporting anchor bars. On the other hand, GRAVITA has more lucrative R/R. Also these are very different in terms of market cap (JSWSTEEL is a largecap whereas GRAVITA is a microcap stock). You can choose whichever fits well with your portfolio mix.

Update on the positions-

I have just bought both the stocks mentioned in the above-quoted post. I will be updating here once I make any further moves in either of these 2 positions.

 

[timepass]

Any opinion on ZEEL at this point ?

 

[Anurag N]

Any opinion on ZEEL at this point ?

Before looking at ZEEL, let's look at its sector's performance. Media sector as a whole is not doing really well. I would say it is by far the worst performing sector in the Indian market. It is stuck in this range as shown below.

One can definitely argue that it is towards the bottom of the range and now can give a reversal towards the top. But I would not bet on it since it has already tested the bottom of the range twice and this time it can break it down. The best can scenario could be it would go till the bottom of the range and sit there for a while before the big investors decide to rotate their money from high momentum sector to this one. It is not a very probable scenario. Now let's look at ZEEL.

On long term, this has recently broken down on multiple swing point lows. This indicates that the selling momentum is quite high here. On top of that the selling volume has been huge, as compared to last couple of year's volume.

The only trade here which I can see is a bottomed-out buying for long term. ZEEL has already lost more than 75% from ATH and is near to its low of 114. You can wait and plan to enter once it is out of its bearish steam and ready for reversal. I don't feel it is bottoming as now, as you can see that on short term it has recently broken down an important swing point, tested it and successfully regenerated lower. This shows it might take another leg down before it is ready for any kind of reversal.

So overall in my opinion, I would not buy this right now. Maybe wait for a while and see any sign of reversal on this.

 

[Anurag N]

GODREJPROP

Trade Status: To be filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.10

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 2535.80

Target Price: 2692

Stop Price: 2394.40

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is doing really good with nice momentum on it. This is making a short term range which, if broken, will be upwards


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest with more than 6 bars gap


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of daily range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Failing the SPH test and high vol support

 

[Anurag N]

GODREJPROP

Trade Status: To be filled

Trade Type: Long

Success Probability: 92%

Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.10

Time Frame: Daily

Entry Price: 2535.80

Target Price: 2692

Stop Price: 2394.40

View attachment 50726

WHY THIS TRADE

Realty sector is doing really good with nice momentum on it. This is making a short term range which, if broken, will be upwards


ENTRY REASONING

At the bottom of the short term range, doing a retest with more than 6 bars gap


TARGET REASONING

1st target is back to the upper area of daily range. If it breaks this range then will target as per abcd projections formed


STOP REASONING

Failing the SPH test and high vol support

This position is filled. It looks stable for now. I will be updating here if I make any moves in this.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on the positions-

I have just bought both the stocks mentioned in the above-quoted post. I will be updating here once I make any further moves in either of these 2 positions.

Update on the JSWSTEEL position-

This has reached the primary target as mentioned in my thesis (see the reference post). I have sold 50% of my position @883. I have kept the remaining 50% for now if it breaks out of the daily range. In that case, I will be targeting around 943 (Fib projection). In case it starts reversing back from the upper area of daily range, I will close the remaining position as well.

 

[Anurag N]

Update on the JSWSTEEL position-

This has reached the primary target as mentioned in my thesis (see the reference post). I have sold 50% of my position @883. I have kept the remaining 50% for now if it breaks out of the daily range. In that case, I will be targeting around 943 (Fib projection). In case it starts reversing back from the upper area of daily range, I will close the remaining position as well.

Update on this position-

JSWSTEEL was looking weak today and tried reversing from top of the range. On top of this, Metal sector also looks to make some correction. I didn't want to take risk here as it already reached my primary target. I have closed the remaining 50% of my position as well @877.