My trade setups

ABB is another trade that is currently active in my portfolio. Here is my analysis for it.

1. ABB is quite a bullish stock when viewed on long term time frame. (Note: although our trade is quite short term, but the strong bullish nature on longer term always gives the stock a nice wind).
2. The stock was in range since July last year. It started breaking this range early December, with breakout on multiple swing points.
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3. It gave a nice opportunity for entry in early December when price was near important support point.
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>> I took a position near the 4700 area. Anticipating a run till 5600 area as per Fib projections. Earlier I had a stop below the weekly range, but since then it has already done a retest to its range and regenerated post that. I am hoping that this shouldn't penetrate the 4600 zone if everything goes right.
Update on this position-
Today this had a big drawdown. The price went and broke the important support level near 4591 (which I discussed in my earlier post). The problem was not the breakout, but the way it broke-out - with huge volume and tracing it even deeper. This indicates that this is not just a normal retrace. The sellers are in control as of now, at least on the short-term timeframe. Chances are the price can go deeper before it decides to make any next move.
I have closed this position @ 4497.95. Will wait here for now and see if I get a better entry here.
The next stock in my portfolio- JSWSTEEL. Here is my analysis:

1. On long term, this stock was in a range for last 3 years. it broke-out from this range in July last year, cam for a quick retest and regenerated post that in December. Considering that this breakout is not false, it should have a good leg-up after this long consolidation.

2. On intermediate level, the price was doing a retest on one of the swing point highs. Please note that this was the second test for this swing point, so the chances of regeneration drops in such cases. But apart from this, the test was happening at a strong support zone which reduces the chances of failure.

3. On short-term, the price also showed critical support which made the entry easier. I entered in this trade at around 830.

>> As of now, I am targeting the highs at 883. I will decide if I should hold further, exit partially or exit completely based on the strength/weakness the buyers shows at these highs.
>> Although I am expecting the price to hold at this support at 810, I will exit this position only when it shows weakness on weekly chart and fail the swing point test there.

I took ths position on 15th Jan. On 18th Jan, the price slipped and broke the daily support level which decreased my conviction in this trade. I had then cut my position in half just to be comfortable in dealing with less probability (sold 50% @ 805.65). Currently I am holding the remaining 50% and expecting this to show a regeneration in the upcoming week. I will be updating here in case I make any further move on this position.
Another stock in my portfolio is ACE. Below mentioned is my analysis-

1. As always, I filter first on the long term. This one held good with strong bullish long term.

2. On Intermediate term, it was doing a retest on its recent swing point high. Retesting with a strong bullish long term made the chances of regeneration quite good.

3. Now on short term, this was doing another set of retests. Multiple retests on multiple time frames further increases the chances of regeneration. Apart from this, there was quite good support zone build here because of alignment of multiple high volume anchor bars.

>> I took a position in this @880. I gave a room of the whole consolidation range on short-term. If the price penetrates further than this range then all the swing point tests and high support points would be failed and the intial thesis would be proven wrong. With that in mind, I kept the stop @ 769.90.
>> I kept a target of 1062 based on the Fibonacci projections. As of now, the price has successfully regenerated from all the swing point tests and nearing the target. It looks like this stock still has momentum in it, so I might not sell at the planned target and keep it for some more time (maybe I will sell a partial position).

I will be making an update post on this once I make any movement in this.
The next trade I am going to talk about is FACT. I am currently holding this position. Here is my analysis for this-

1. On long term, this was extremely bullish since the time it broke out of its range near 120. It has been going really strong ever since. This gave a good confidence to take a short term position for a high beta stock like this.
2. On short term, this made a very neat pennant structure. This looked like a very textbook example of surge in price with a spurt of volume followed by pennant formation with relatively no volume.
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3. The pennant structure looked like it is about to be completed and it can breakout anytime now. I took a position at around 715 with a target at around 975. This target is calculated as per the abcd projection method. I kept a stop around 630 as it was one of the strongest support area on short term, but I would have closed or at least partially cut my position in case the pennant structure would start breaking downwards.

4. This broke out of the pennant structure early December
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Please note that this is not following the classic breakout of pennant where the breakout happens with surge in price in just a couple of candles itself. Here it has gradually moved up. Since this is not going as per the pennant formation way, I am not very anal about its projected target. I am holding this as it is quite bullish as of now and has not shown any sign of end of bull run on short term. I have raised the stop to near 750 for now.
I will follow up and update on this trade when I plan on making any move here.
Update on this position-
This stock started showing weakness by January end. In order to be a little safe, I closed 30% of my position @ 881.50 on 29th Jan. Post this, it actually started moving down. Yesterday, it breached my stop level and I completely closed this position @786.

Side note: Generally, I give a wide room for a stock to play out and don't necessarily keep tight stops. But the thing with stocks like FACT is that they have really high beta. So if the bearish side actually starts taking control of this, it can start giving huge drops. You wouldn't get a chance to actually close the position and always hope that the next day will show some recovery. It is safer to just take whatever profits have been made and maybe look at it again when the bears have steamed out.


Well-Known Member
hi, can you please post the EOD chart of nifty with swing highs and lows.
Next trade from my portfolio is BANKINDIA. Here is my analysis for it-

1. This was breaking out on all time frames (Monthly, Weekly and Daily). So if the market favours, this can give a nice spike on the breakout.
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2. I took my position before it attempted to breakout on daily. Did this because there were chances that the price will surge rapidly on the breakout and I wouldn't be able to get an entry here. Also, the risk was far less as there was decent support till 103 area (keeping it as my stop area).
3. I am hoping that this gives a good rally once it break out. I will see how it breaks out and decide accordingly how long to carry this position. But for now I am keeping the target as the monthly resistance area (where it will also test its 5 year old swing point low). This also happens to coincide with the Fib projection point on weekly time frame.
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Update on my BANKINDIA position-

I already closed 30% of my position mid-January @134 as it reached my target zone (discussed in an earlier post).
This has performed well enough, but in the last few days this started dropping massively from the 5yrs back swing area (discussed in the reference post, point #3).
Today I sold the remaining position @134.70.
Note that this is still a very strong stock. I would look to re-enter in this at a better price point.

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