My trade setups

ABB is another trade that is currently active in my portfolio. Here is my analysis for it.

1. ABB is quite a bullish stock when viewed on long term time frame. (Note: although our trade is quite short term, but the strong bullish nature on longer term always gives the stock a nice wind).
2. The stock was in range since July last year. It started breaking this range early December, with breakout on multiple swing points.

3. It gave a nice opportunity for entry in early December when price was near important support point.

>> I took a position near the 4700 area. Anticipating a run till 5600 area as per Fib projections. Earlier I had a stop below the weekly range, but since then it has already done a retest to its range and regenerated post that. I am hoping that this shouldn't penetrate the 4600 zone if everything goes right.
My analysis on the next stock in my portfolio- FEDERALBNK

1. The long term is quite bullish. This was consolidating since July 2023, after which it broke out from the range, did a quick retest and regenerated post that. Since this has just started regenerating, it can give a nice rally before going for another consolidation.

2. On short term, this has broken out 3 swing point highs in early December. Although, this has already retested it once and now this is retesting for the second time (chances become less for regeneration on the second time), the risk on it was very less since the price was just near the support zone.

I bought it at 150.75 with a stop at 149.10. If it goes below that then the strength from the swing point will not be good enough for this and it would be better to let it go for the time being. I am targeting around 164 for now based on the Fibonacci projections.
Update on my last post for FEDERALBNK-

This stock dropped today below my expected stop level. Although the overall market is doing some correction today, this should have at least held the swing points on the daily charts (the swing points were mentioned in the above post). As those swing points failed today, it shows that the bulls don't have enough strength for now on short-term time frame. Hence, I closed this position today @ 147.66.

Please note that from long-term perspective this stock still looks bullish as it is still well above the monthly range area. We can only claim that bulls have run out of steam once it breaks below the 121 mark.

Will keep this in my list for now and come back again once I see an opportunity to enter again.
Next trade from my portfolio is BANKINDIA. Here is my analysis for it-

1. This was breaking out on all time frames (Monthly, Weekly and Daily). So if the market favours, this can give a nice spike on the breakout.
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2. I took my position before it attempted to breakout on daily. Did this because there were chances that the price will surge rapidly on the breakout and I wouldn't be able to get an entry here. Also, the risk was far less as there was decent support till 103 area (keeping it as my stop area).
3. I am hoping that this gives a good rally once it break out. I will see how it breaks out and decide accordingly how long to carry this position. But for now I am keeping the target as the monthly resistance area (where it will also test its 5 year old swing point low). This also happens to coincide with the Fib projection point on weekly time frame.
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Update on my BANKINDIA trade-

The price is inside the expected target zone right now. For the past 3-4 days it is struggling to go above the lower limit of this zone. So just to be safe I have sold 30% of my position in this at the bottom of this zone @134.

I might sell a little more if I see the struggle to go up continues for another few days. I have also raised my stop to 127 here since I don't want to lose this winning position in case of a deeper retrace.
The next stock in my portfolio is ICICIBANK. Here is my analysis for this-

1. This stock is quite strong on long term. (Note- I always look for cases of bullish long term because that increases the probability that a retrace on short term is in fact a retrace only and not a trend changing move. It's always good to sail along the wind.)

2. On intermediate term, the price was going for a retrace, retesting two important swing point highs. The breakout of these swing points happened on a higher volume whereas the retest was happening on relatively lower volume. This increases the chances of regeneration.

3. The short term action was also very supportive, given this had a big breakout earlier, breaking out four swing points. In case it comes for a deeper retrace to this area, there were very high chances that the price will push back up.

>> I bought this when the price was around 1000. I bought it here since it was around a good support area (formed by the consecutive high volume bars). I didn't wait for the price to go for a retrace to the swing point area because in majority of cases when multiple swing points are broken, it is not necessary that the price will go for a retrace. It can just simply go up. But in case it comes into this swing point area for a test, I would maybe buy some more quantity there.

>> I have kept the stop below the bottom of these swing point candles, because if the price penetrates below this then definitely it won't be a normal retrace and the short term trend might be changing to bearish or sideways at best.

>> I have kept the target for around 1100 for now based on the Fibonacci projections, but it is not really absolute. I will see how the price behaves post the regeneration and on the basis of that I would adjust my target accordingly.

So far the price is still lingering around my entry area. I will write an update post once I make any move on this.
Another stock in my portfolio currently is CGPOWER. Below is my analysis for this.

1. On long term this was very strong bullish, which is a green flag

2. On intermediate term, this showed a big move in Nov. Although, the move was not fully actualised as around 60% of it went back down. In fact, this was a good play as there was vol left on the top indicating that price might want to back there again to test this area.

3. Post the above-mentioned move, there was a good consolidation that happened for the next 6-7 weeks which is a good sign. This consolidation on short term was a good opportunity to make an entry as it had 3 swing point highs lined up for a breakout. All these swing points were also tested once and failed, but this failure happened with a good test volume, indicating that price might go back again to test these points.

>> Another green flag here is the good support formed by the 3 consecutive anchor bars during late Nov. I bought my position around this support area. I am for now targeting the high around 500 where the price went and left good volume. I will reconsider my target once I see how it test this high point. I am considering my stop below the consolidation zone (around 425). Here the price will also breakout on multiple swing point lows.

On 23rd Jan, the price went down and tested on of the swing point low with strong volume, also failing the strong support formed by the consecutive anchor bars. This indicated that the price can further go down and since there are multiple swing point lows lined up with no strong support under it, the price could have slid down massive in upcoming days. Because of this, I cut my position in half just as a precaution. Anyhow, the price recovered in the next two days and came back again in the consolidation area.

I will update further on this once I make any other move here.
The next trade I am going to talk about is FACT. I am currently holding this position. Here is my analysis for this-

1. On long term, this was extremely bullish since the time it broke out of its range near 120. It has been going really strong ever since. This gave a good confidence to take a short term position for a high beta stock like this.
2. On short term, this made a very neat pennant structure. This looked like a very textbook example of surge in price with a spurt of volume followed by pennant formation with relatively no volume.
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3. The pennant structure looked like it is about to be completed and it can breakout anytime now. I took a position at around 715 with a target at around 975. This target is calculated as per the abcd projection method. I kept a stop around 630 as it was one of the strongest support area on short term, but I would have closed or at least partially cut my position in case the pennant structure would start breaking downwards.

4. This broke out of the pennant structure early December
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Please note that this is not following the classic breakout of pennant where the breakout happens with surge in price in just a couple of candles itself. Here it has gradually moved up. Since this is not going as per the pennant formation way, I am not very anal about its projected target. I am holding this as it is quite bullish as of now and has not shown any sign of end of bull run on short term. I have raised the stop to near 750 for now.
I will follow up and update on this trade when I plan on making any move here.
Following up on this trade-
This stock was looking weak since the market opened today. I sold 30% of my position @ 881.50. The stock did slip some 3% today post that. I will sell more tomorrow in case it still looks weak. If the weakness continues then it might come bck to its 820 area. Don't want to lose out on the already profitable position.

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