Markets & After hours

Here's some light hearted entertainment :)

Moneynews
Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014
Monday, February 10, 2014 03:33 PM


It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame.

Editor's Note: Sean Hyman Reveals His Secret Wall Street Calendar in This Controversial Video, Click Here

“But this calendar is just one part of my investment system,” Hyman adds. “I also have a Crash Alert System that is designed to warn investors before a major correction as well.”

(The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible).

Hyman explains that if the market starts to plunge, the Crash Alert System will signal a sell alert warning investors to go to cash.

“You would have been able to completely avoid the 2000 and 2008 collapses if you were using this system based on our back-testing,” Hyman explains. “Imagine how much more money you would have if you had avoided those horrific sell-offs.”

One might think Sean is being too confident, but he has proven himself correct in front of millions of people time and time again.

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.

In a recent video, Hyman not only reveals the secret Wall Street calendar, he also shows how his Crash Alert System works so that anybody can follow in his footsteps.http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsInt...66D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral
Of course, this is about American markets, which have no bearing on our indices.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
Oops... TP have different views. If US markets crack, global markets follow - as funds look for safety first and then return of capital. What drives our markets? FII's ofcourse. If FII's had to withdraw today, I would not be surprised if we tanked 50%. During the Sub-prime crisis, Nifty lost about 1/3rd of its value i.e about 1,500 point in a matter of two months. It went from 4,400 to to below 2,900

:( :( :(

To think that FII's had to withdraw their entire investments here, I shudder to think..... Just my views.....

Here's some light hearted entertainment :)



Of course, this is about American markets, which have no bearing on our indices.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
An insight into the mind of Warren Buffet :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-liquidity-curse-celebrates-property-bet.html

Excerpt :

Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., cited a farm he’s owned since 1986 to caution individuals against frequent buying and selling of stocks. Investors should treat their equity holdings like real estate purchases, focusing on the potential for profits over time rather than short-term price fluctuations, Buffett, 83, wrote in an excerpt from his annual letter published on the website of Fortune magazine today.

“Those people who can sit quietly for decades when they own a farm or apartment house too often become frenetic when they are exposed to a stream of stock quotations,” Buffett said. “For these investors, liquidity is transformed from the unqualified benefit it should be to a curse.” Buffett has pursued a buy-and-hold investment approach as he built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire into a $280 billion company accumulating the largest holdings of Coca-Cola Co., American Express Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

“The goal of the nonprofessional should not be to pick winners,” Buffett wrote. “The ‘know-nothing’ investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results.” Buffett’s track record of profitable stock picks and takeovers has helped make his letters a must-read on Wall Street. The billionaire has said he writes them to be understood by his sisters, who don’t work in finance.


In today’s excerpt, Buffett cited the agricultural holding and a 1993 investment in New York City real estate. The farm is worth about five times what Buffett paid, and earnings have tripled, he wrote.
Annual distributions on the retail property, near New York University, now exceed 35 percent of the initial investment. He purchased the 400-acre (1.6 square kilometer) farm, located 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of Omaha, for $280,000 in 1986. He says he calculated the farm’s return to be about 10 percent, based on production estimates for soy and corn.
‘Moody Fellow’

The billionaire compared the daily fluctuations in stock values to an erratic neighbor standing near his property, yelling out offers for the land. “If a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his -- and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state -- how in the world could I be other than benefited,” Buffett wrote. “If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming.”

“Owners of stocks, however, too often let the capricious and irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally,” he wrote. “Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits -- and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments.” Buffett has said that he regrets not taking advantage of such irrationality to sell holdings. Coca-Cola Co., one of Berkshire’s largest equity holdings, was one of the billionaire’s most successful investments in the 1990s, reaching prices that were more than 45 times earnings at the end of 1998. The investment has fared worse since then. While the stock price has recovered most of its losses since falling from the 1998 peak, Coke’s price-to-earnings ratio is less than half of what it once was.



Despite that regret, Buffett reiterated his view today that excessive trading can diminish returns. “Both individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions,” he wrote. “The resulting frictional costs can be huge and, for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit.” Berkshire last week decided to stop letting high-speed traders purchase direct access to press releases distributed by its Business Wire unit. Such firms often enter and exit positions in less than a second. Buffett said last year that such activity is “not contributing anything to capitalism.”
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
NG 25Feb. 397.60
NG 26Mar. 321.20
Discount 76.40

NG expiry for Mar. is trading at almost 20% discount to Feb. expiry. While few traders would be able to trade for delivery, the premium of 20% seems excessive. What opportunities does this huge difference between two contracts throw up? Just wondering......
DSM

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