learning value investing

M

muthutrader

Active Member
#1
#1
Code: 
Stock-Federal Bank
Market Cap:11,590.84 Cr

EPS
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
2.75	5.26	6.84	4.30	5.85	5.43	6.86	9.08	9.80	9.81

Book Value
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
 21.8	29.03	34.94	45.8	50.4	54.6	58.73	66.72	74.4	81.26	

ROE
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
12.57	22.99	19.57 	9.39 	11.58 	9.91	11.49   13.61   13.16 	12.06 	

Net profit(Cr)	
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
90.09	225.21	292.73	368.05	500.49	464.55	587.08	776.80	838.17	838.89
EPS AV growth-15.17%
BV AV growth -15.74%

Y2014-
Gross NPA -1,087.41(cr)
Net NPA -321.56(cr)

Gross NPA%-2.46%
Net NPA%-0.74%

as far as my valuation, the intrinsic value of the stock is around 120 to 150,now trading at -67.50
friends i am learning value investing,share you are view on this stock,it will be so helpful for learns like me and others,

thanks
 
Last edited:
M

muthutrader

Active Member
#2
#2
Code: 
Stock-RATNAMANI 
Market Cap:2,795.23 Cr

EPS
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
2.94	7.45	14.26	20.01	15.82	17.74	17.92	24.02	29.30	30.58	

Book Value
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
11.26	18.14	31.23	49.6	63.17 	78.72	94.23 	114.72 	139.33 	164.20	

ROE
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
26.15   41.08   45.66   40.33 	25.04 	22.51   19.12 	20.92   21.02 	18.63 	
   
Net profit(Cr)	
Mar 05	Mar 06	Mar 07	Mar 08	Mar 09	Mar 10	Mar 11	Mar 12	Mar 13	Mar 14	
13.25	33.54	64.18	90.03	71.20	81.43	83.17	111.44	135.95	142.81
Company has reduced debt(Y2007 DER-1.31)
Y2014
Debt Equity Ratio 0.10
Long Term DER 0.02
Current Ratio 1.71
Quick Ratio 1.26

the intrinsic value of the stock is around 800,now trading at -595
 
M

muthutrader

Active Member
#3
#3
HTML: 
stock-MOIL
market cap-3,956.40Cr


EPS
Mar ' 15 	Mar ' 14 	Mar ' 13 	Mar ' 12 	Mar ' 11
25.48 		30.33 		25.70 		24.45 		35.00


Book value 
Mar ' 15 	Mar ' 14 	Mar ' 13 	Mar ' 12 	Mar ' 11
201.29 		186.15 		164.62 		145.32 		126.68
the intrinsic value of the stock is around 400,now trading at -235.45
 
S

Steve_1982

Active Member
#6
#6
I've noticed that sales growth is important. A stock should not have had low sales growth in the last few years.

@MuthuTrader, can you evaluate HCL Tech and Yes Bank? They seem to be the only two stocks that I've found that meet my investment requirements and Buffet's advise on investing only when CMP is discounted to intrinsic value by 25%.
 
M

muthutrader

Active Member
#7
#7
yes bank intrinsic value around 1000 to 1100 CMP-691.50

HCL intrinsic value around 1200 to 1400 CPM-964.90

good stocks,i am also invest in yesbank,

(my view)

i need minimum 50% discount to intrinsic value for more safety,

theoretically if one buy a stock at 50% discount to intrinsic value
say IV-100 CPM-50
one can get minimum 7.17% return per year for the next 10 years (risk free 10 year bond yield is-7.78)

in 25% discount to intrinsic value say IV-100 CPM-75
one can get minimum 2.91% return per year for the next 10 years (risk free 10 year bond yield is-7.78)

and risk also include

to control risk ,i add market return + 50% discount to intrinsic value

market return = nifty PE ,now nifty PE is-23.19,if one invest now at 23.19 PE,
one can get 4.31% return per year for the next 10 years from market

market return + 50% discount to intrinsic value

4.31% + 7.17% =11.48%

11.48% per year for the next 10 years

(i look for minimum 13% return for more safety)
 
S

Steve_1982

Active Member
#9
#9
I'd have to wait for a situation such as 2001 and 2009 to enter at 50% intrinsic value for the stocks that I have on my watch list. True value investing seems to be partly a waiting game.
 
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