Jai Corporation

[jnj333]

Amusing statement.
A fundamental analyst calculates the fair-value or NAV of a company based on the market prices - the land bank, land holdings etc of Jai Corp are calculated based on the market prices of these assets.

But they complain that the stock market is always wrong in pricing the stock !!

So, let me understand ...

Fundamental valuation and NAV calculated based on market value of land prices and projects is correct ... but the market price of the share is wrong ??

Yes adheer, it eventually boils down to how perfect ones analysis is in valuing the company, FA is as difficult or more as TA but with the longer term prespective, Comparing with peers is one part of Fundamental analysis , take for example Mundra Port, it is being valued by the market to be a 40000 cr company as of now , ofcourse it is up and running , but Jaicorp with its Holding in Rewas Port(which will be much bigger than Mundra) ,NMSEZ, MSEZ, UIOF,etc is being valued a 1300 cr company , while it has more than this as cash in its books (if the books are correct ,you cannot anymore believe what it true after the satyam debacle), so either Mundra's valuation is wrong or Jaicorp's. This is just one part , there can be 100s of parameters for valuing the company.

Sometimes I feel alone here that people dont participate on the fundamental terms here on any company, they just post there views based on reports seen in the media(which are mostly manufactured) , if more people participate, for starters they start reading the annual reports and then discuss here, then every one will benefit and make us more informed investors in the process.

 

[kpp]

i always think this is high risk high reward stock. but the way it is butchered that is very heart breaking. i read some were lessons are learned hard way. i'm among them. atleast i have learned when one makes decent profit he should withdraw capital and bank on the free shares. i followed this with other low profit stock but failed to do same in JC. i brought 70 at avg price of 670 before split, currently it is hovering around 67. i''m still optimistic when good time is back JC will again bounce back. it won't be easy to come at those levels, it will require great project execution capabilities by management, improvement in global demand and supported by backing of MA.

 

[jnj333]

Well Done, Adheer, you interpreted my message quite well, there are numerous charts including the biggies or for that matter the nifty which are in a downtrend, so one should not invest in this type of markets, why single out Jaicorp, as you have stated you are a trader so fundamentals do not concern you, good for you, follow your trading style. I certainly dont believe it can reach 1500 by mar , I'll be very happy if it reaches even 150 by then. I except my failure here. You have mentioned my post when Jaicorp was at 610, good to note you did not mention when I suggested it at 1500 levels (pre split/bonus) and it reached 28000, well done, you didnt compliment me for working for the promoters then.

I better be careful to put my money in SBI which bought 3 lac shares of Jaicorp at 1000 levels and that too for 1 year lockin, what type of fools are running the biggest bank of our country, and what about LIC, our biggest insurance company, what fools are they buying 26 lac shares at 400 levels , I wonder why they did not look at the charts , even a layman can clearly tell it is in a downtrend, No insurance from LIC for me.

 

[jnj333]

As you are suggesting that everybody is corrupt from SBI to LIC, I better not invest in our country , only become a trader as per charts, Thanks for the advice. I wonder why you were not screaming sell at 700 levels when the downtrend was visible, why say it at 70 levels , It is now my time to wonder your motive.

 

[jnj333]

Yes I am sure adheer is hand in glove with operators

FERA, FEMA, TADA, MCOCCA, all the guys are looking for you adheer

If you want, I can suggest a couple of interactive brokers in US for u ... or maybe that country is tainted too.

Maybe you should look towards bangladesh for investments

For me my country provides the best investment opportunity, thanks for the advice though.

 

[jnj333]

Did I suggest everybody or are you seeing invisible words that I did not type ?

I wonder if I had screamed sell at 700 levels, I would have been discredited and ridiculed by the "fundamental investors" !! I did scream sell for other stocks like RPL, DLF etc - actually I shorted them I did not average down.

Whether you want to become a trader or a fundamental investor is your personal choice. I only showed what that charts are doing and telling - and that fundamental analysis valuation does not re-concile with market prices. The market will discover the best price. Today the market tells me that this stock is 90% worthless than it was one year ago, and a lot of investors have been stuck at various levels trying to get out.

The debate was about the valuation using fundamental analysis. I pointed out posts where posters have claimed that the market price valuation of this stock should be very high based on fundamental valuation.
I pointed out that price has dropped by 90% but the so called "fundamental valuation" remains unchanged.

Do you still argue that fact ? Apparently, you cannot argue with the price, can you ?

Well, I interpreted whoever touched JaiCorp was corrupt, even Mr.Mukesh Ambani too , the complete Reliance group too, which is jointly developing the projects ( I wonder what SEBI is doing allowing RIL, our country's Top stock being associated with a no fundamental company).

If you want to debate about FA vs TA , I request you to kindly start a new thread, and you did not want to be ridiculed at 700 levels and now want to become a hero showing the charts, how sad. If your analysis is so strong kindly complete that chart for the next 3 years , where it will go from here. And the fundamentals have certainly not remained unchanged, they have changed , thats why the fall. And yes from the very start of this thread I have maintained operators are involved here and this is very high risk high return and I have been proven right on that front. And wherever I have been proved wrong I have accepted.

 

[jnj333]

Aha ... where rational debate ends, display of patriotism begin.

Rational debate has not started yet, my friend.

 

[jnj333]

That is the whole point. Predictions are futile.

I am trader - I do not (and cannot) predict. I trade based on what the charts tell me and how price patterns unfold - and fortunately with good success.
If and when I see a base formation, I will go long. If I sense weakness and irrational euphoria, I will short. But, I cannot predict. I can only react to what I see.

As for Jai Corp, volume is lacklustre and each rally is inviting a selling. It has kept making new lows so picking a bottom would be stupid.

On the upside, there is an unfilled gap at Rs 79-80.55 created on 9th Jan. So, after consolidation, this gap would mostly likely be filled on the next rally.
Statistically, on volume based rallies, gaps within 10-15% ranges tend to be filled. Then it is wait and watch.

Anyone who claims to predict the future is a fool. I am sure you will agree based upon your own reminiscences.

Now thats rationale saying, a very good post,I think a first TA based post in this thread, that was what I was talking about, if more people like you were there before in this thread our combined analysis would had been much much better and we would have been saved from the misfortune, I understand TA very less , but firmly believe a combined analysis of FA and TA helps all kind of investors. Keep up the good posts rather than bashing each other. Looking forward for more informative posts like that.

 

[trader72]

there are strong rumours that reliance has sacked anand jain due to some major scam. if it is true, what happens to jai corp and reliance?????

 

[kkseal]

Scam or no scam, from 40 to 28k in 3/4 yrs- god, at least a decade or so of future growth must have been priced in at the peak! Even at current 1400 (pre-split) it must be the top market outperformer (in terms of 4 yr returns).

Never had the guts to buy the stock - the PE looked menacing (after all how much does one pay for growth - that too in some distant future) but if it does come to 35-40 ... might be worth a closer look.

(Nice clean Haikin-Ashi on Adheer's charts