Intraday calls

[n_arvind2000]

Sensex Technical View:

In the last few days what we have seen is a normal recovery after indices being highly oversold.

The bounce has been almost 1000 points from the bottom giving good trading opportunities.

But very soon around 18550 and 18900-19000 levels it will be very difficult for the index to cross and continue the upward momentum.

After such a drop markets do tend to retrace 50% of the fall. So we may expect the upsides for the short term could be limited to 19000 levels approximately.

On the downside we have couple of bottoms at 18200. So for a short term trader range could broadly be 18200-19000 levels.

 

[n_arvind2000]

Titan is it worth 10,000??

Graham's value equation as applied to Titan projects a price of 10,000/-

i.e.
value = ttmeps * (8.5 + 2 * Growth rate)

ttmeps=89.64
GR = 52 assumed for next 5 quarters avg.


This years ESP would be around 110, so maximum price can be around 5000 (optimistic situation), so for price to be 10,000 ESP should be at least 300, as at those rate & M-CAP, I dont think Titan can command a PE more than 30-35...So, you can calculate how much time titan will take to raise its EPS to around 300 level,
I think 2-3 years can be the safest time to get price close to 10.000.

Titan's ROE is primarily linked to its high asset turnover and marginally due to its profit margins and leverage.The asset turnover is something which Titan enjoys due to its unique franchise led business model.This is something which is very difficult to replicate by anyone existing in the industry or for any newcomer.This is a brilliant,almost unconquerable moat.

If you look at other companies that enjoy high ROEs it is generally because of high margins(a product of brands)- this high margin moat is easier to penetrate.If a strong competitor comes in with its own powerful brands there could be price wars to gain market share which affect margins and hence ROEs and eventually growth.

So an ROE led by high asset turnover ratio primarily rather than margins is better moat.

Comments welcome!

 

[n_arvind2000]

Sensex Technical View:

There is a possibility Sensex is making an inverted head and shoulders pattern but the time period is very small so many not be very reliable and probable. Possible targets above 18700 could take it to 19000-19400 band. ( Will budget give the filip for this move possibly yes )

For the short term trader 18100 now becomes a stoploss and a target of 19000.
Shorts can seen around 19000/19400.

Investors who have not been able to generate enough cash may look to do so at 18900-19400 levels as a precaution. A close above 19600 will only make the medium trend bullish.

Patience will be the key till March end. Expect volatility to reduce after March end also a better trend to emerge.

Market buzz suggests some more upmove on index with JPC formal announcement or something from govt before budget Pure Rumours No Technicals.

Crude Oil has given a breakout above 93 and may head to 100-105 also which could be a concern for Indian Markets.

 

[n_arvind2000]

BTST/Positional Call:

Buy TITAN 3184 Target 3255-3288-3314 SL 3150

TITAN Today's high 3452 :thumb: :clapping:

I hope people took this buy call!

 

[n_arvind2000]

Random thoughts on the market !

In the last 2 months or say last 4 months markets have come back to almost Oct 2009 levels which is like pushing back the index by 15-16 months.

So all the gain which was seen over the last 12-18 months has been washed of the index and if in between the volatility was so high that losses have added up due to wrong timing or wrong stock picking.

Majority of the investments of a trader/investor is mainly towards midcap and small cap stocks.

I wont consider the Sensex as a measurement of Market moves in terms of broader market but Sensex is back to 18k-18.5k which is down 13-15 % from peak. Broader Market Indices like BSE 500 down 17% from peak, Small Cap Index down 30%.

If someone would have had allocations to real estate or Infra the wounds could be deeper! then one can digest. For example Punj Lloyd is below 2009 lows.

In the last 1-2 years though Index has moved up back to 21000 the move was not secular like we had in 2007. So there have been certain stocks which ran away and certain which just crashed.

So the wound is deeper then it seems !!

The major concern now is whether the fall is over it has much more steam and may hurt more? Well technically speaking there is one more down wave left in the best case scenario. Either markets take a dip below 17300 and make a bottom or 16100/16800 or does a retest of 17300.

It would be surprising if markets were to turnaround from this point and cross 19200/19600 levels in a hurry.

Any fall below 17300 will obviously lead to a new low in broader indices. With many stocks down 40-50% from peak without a major fundamental change the next dip if it comes would seriously be an interesting time for investors !

Bottomline :
Times could be tough over the next few months. One may see another 5-8% dent below the last low in portfolios or indices in the worst case!!. But after that is over we may well be set on a smooth journey.

Be ready to bear the pain over next few months. Be patient and don't be foolhardy or look for big trades let the markets settle.Once this period of uncertainty is over Investors/Traders will get their chances for some of the biggest opportunities like 2009 ! did.

Nothing is permanent !!

The above thoughts are purely random with no technical or fundamental view but a possible scenario is March end could be the time to get ready!

 

[n_arvind2000]

BTST/Positional Call:

BUY SBIN 2664 till 2630 TARGET 2785-2860-2925 SL 2602

SBIN is in bullish trend and on the UPSIDE....
Strong buy for 1 week-15 days hold
Close above 2765 will give positive break on the upside..

5 day RSI: 52
14 day RSI: 54
Volume: 1970000 .... 20 day av vol: 2474000
Williams % R(14): 74

S 2 S 1 Pivot R 1 R 2
2676.40 2701.80 2739.40 2764.80 2802.40

Attached EOD chart for reference.

 

[n_arvind2000]

Gold likely to touch Rs 21,300 by May: SMC Group


Financial services provider SMC Group on Sunday said gold and silver prices are expected to touch Rs 21,300 per 10 grams and Rs 52,000 per kg, respectively by May.

With FIIs and other major investors gradually withdrawing their money from the capital markets, substantial fall has been witnessed in Sensex and Nifty .

Due to this "gold and silver are likely to remain major epicenter for investors even in stiffer price bracket," SMC COMTRADE managing director D K Aggarwal said.

The stock market has plummeted by 13.69 per cent in the year yet.

FIIs total investment in debt and equity has come down to Rs 1.37 lakh crore so far in the current fiscal from Rs 1.42 lakh crore in 2009-10.

Investors would continue to park their surpluses in gold and silver as demand for the precious metals is likely to pick up in the near future, Aggarwal said.

On February 24, silver prices touched Rs 50,500 per kg, while gold surged to an all-time high of Rs 21,240 per 10 grams on brisk buying by jewellers for the ongoing marriage season.

"Bullion trade will remain the preferred epicenter of investors...investments like in equities are likely to lose sheen in view of emerging market conditions," he said.

He also said that ongoing unrest in Middle East, which is fuelling crude oil prices amid plunging dollar index are making room for more upside in bullion.

Even, currency movement is narrating the similar story, he said, adding that most of the currencies like Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are trading in the upper range.

Further, Aggarwal said the bullion prices will touch the estimated levels since Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has dropped hints that he would put more purchasing power in the hands of common man through budgetary measures.

 

[n_arvind2000]

Titan Industries BSE code: 500114

Have an eye on TITAN - momentum to begin shortly...
Once strong close above R2 (3464-3479) levels.... can expect target of 3577-3659-3743

S 2 S 1 Pivot R 1 R 2
3314.15 3358.20 3389.10 3433.15 3464.05

- 5 day RSI: 60
- 14 day RSI: 52

 

[n_arvind2000]

What to do in Life?

Be yourself, live your OWN LIFE, dont get too much influenced by other peoples life.

Dont be jealous(and If you succeed then let everyone know), sometimes you will be way ahead; sometimes you will be way behind. Its a long race and in the end its going to be with yourself only.

Dont strive for a big bungalow or villa if you have decided to spent most of your time in the office

Dont run after luxurious cars if they are going to be parked in your office parking for most of the time, instead buy a small car and have time to go on a drive with your parents/someone you love/friends,

Dont join an expensive health club if you are never going to go there,

You are juggling your career, health, relations, status and money in a circus called life.

Be very sure which balls you want to handle carefully; relations and health are made of glass once dropped they will be shattered while career and money are like tennis ball and they can bounce back again. --- ex president of coca cola is of this particular view
few years from now you wont regret about certain badly written codes/ badly made presentations/bad Ratings/missed Promotions but you will surely miss the time which you COULD HAVE spent with your parents/kids/spouse/lover, your youth , your health, the bachelor nights spent at some club with your friends

Dont run In a vicious circle which says.. earn lots of money and world will call you successful and that success will give you the joy, try the other way round, do what you love to do, gain joy....success will surely follow and then money and fame will be all yours.

 

[Nihilistic]

Nice posts, Arvind. Very much appreciated.

Regards,