Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Height of Optimism)

#1
Guys please go through one of the experience from a BBC reporter.
Is Indian Growth Story a reality to the benchmark what china has achieved. is it reflected on the sharemarket or its just a hight of optimism

India struggles to catch China
By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
BBC News, Delhi and Beijing



The rapid growth of the Indian and Chinese economies have transformed the two countries in recent years. But this prosperity has also brought other problems.

Heavy investment has turned Beijing into a modern city

I think it was in 2003, that the world suddenly woke up to China .
I am not sure what caused it to happen, what particular event or news story. I just remembered the phone in the BBC's Beijing Bureau started ringing and it has not stopped since.
Well now it is happening again and this time it is not China , it is India .

Every time you turn on the television or pick up a magazine, it is no longer the rise of China , it is now the rise of China and India .
The desire to make comparisons is understandable. Both have more than a billion people. Both are growing at 10% a year.


There are, I suspect, many who are hoping that India , with its freedom and democracy, will win this new race to become the next economic super power. I am not so sure.

I have spent the last eight years living in Beijing , and only four days in Delhi , so comparisons are difficult.
But the few days I recently spent in India made me look at China in a new light.


Over 15 million people live in Delhi

Delhi is an overwhelming experience. It is as if all of humanity has been squeezed into one city.
The streets groan under the weight of people. The air is filled with deafening noise and sumptuous smells.
Switch on the television and it is the same.

Between channels blasting out voluptuous Bollywood love stories and pop videos, an endless stream of news channels dissect the latest political scandals, and debauched lifestyles of the rich and famous.

Coming from China it is an almost shocking experience.
But after the initial delight at being in an open society, I started to notice other things.


The hotel was expensive and bad. In my room I searched for a high speed internet connection, a standard feature in any hotel in China . There was not one.

Then with the night-time temperature still well above 30C (86F) the power went out.
I lay for hours soaked in sweat trying, and failing, to get back to sleep and wishing I was back in Beijing where the lights never go out.
But getting back would not be easy.

Passenger queues

I looked at my plane ticket. Departure time 0315. Surely that could not be right.
I called the front desk. "That's correct sir," he said, "the airport is too small so many flights from Delhi leave in the middle of the night."

He was not joking.
My taxi struggled along the Jaipur road towards the airport.
The two-lane road was clogged by an endless convoy of lorries. Finally I arrived at Indira Gandhi International airport. Despite the hour it was teeming with people.
The queues snaked around the airport and back to where they had started.

Foreign tourists stared in bewilderment. Locals with the resigned look of those used to waiting.

"Is it always like this?" I asked a man in the queue ahead of me.
"Pretty much," he sighed.
I was finally shepherded aboard the flight to Shanghai .
Next to me sat a friendly looking Indian man in shorts and running shoes.
"Is this your first trip to China ?" he asked me.
"No," I replied, "I live there."
"Really," he said, his interest piqued, "what should I expect?"
"I think," I said, "you should expect to be surprised."

Jaw dropping

Six hours later, our plane taxied to a halt in front of the soaring glass and steel of Shanghai's Pudong International Airport

As we emerged into the cool silence of the ultra-modern terminal, my new companion's jaw slid towards his belly button.
"I was not expecting this," he said, his eyes wide in wonder. "Oh no, I definitely was not expecting this".

I also found myself looking at China afresh.
Later that day as I drove home from Beijing airport along the smooth six-lane highway I could not help feeling a sense of relief at being back in a country where things work.
And it was not just the airports and roads.

Driving through a village on the edge of Beijing I was struck by how well everyone was dressed.
In Delhi , I had been shocked to see thousands of people sleeping rough on the streets every night, nothing but the few rags they slept in to call their own. Even deep in China 's countryside that is not something you will see.

In Delhi I had been told of the wonders of India 's new economy, of the tens of thousands of bright young graduates churning out the world's latest computer software.

I thought of China 's new economy, of the tens of millions of rural migrants who slave away in factories, making everything from plimsolls to plasma televisions.

And of the same rural migrants, heading home to their villages at Chinese New Year festival loaded down with gifts, their pockets stuffed full of cash.

China is not a free society, and it has immense problems. But its successes should not be underestimated.
They are ones that India , even with its open and democratic society, is still far from matching.
 
U

uasish

Guest
#2
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

Interesting article ,thks.
 
#3
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

I am very possitive for the india shining vision 2020 a reality. we have better resources, then china.
the race is on we are catching up every thing is good.
But we need to see the reality and try to reevalate why its not reflected in reality are we achieving what we plan.
Execution is where we fail again and again. Its time the OPtimism should provide much enerty to rally .. Rally not just on the stock market the rally in reality.

Infrastructure development is just on plan lets see if we can achieve what we plan.
 
#5
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

The Chinese had to sacrifice a lot to get where they are now. I don't see Indians making such sacrifices.
1] One child per family.
2] Banning free movement of people to big cities.
3] Content with being godless people.
...

The good thing about India is that private companies are really private and therefore are immune from being corrupt like governments.
 
#6
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

China is controlled Economy where as India is de-controlled Economy. Individual can contribute to best of his ability and style. I think This aspect also to be looked in to.
 
#7
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

To begin with this is a pretty old article, atleast year and a half old…………. right!

There is a difference between an autocratic rule to a democratic rule, but boy arent the corrective measures being taken. Think of it 500B dollars in 5 years time and then eventually over 1.6T dollars or more on a 10 yr time span and all this goes towards the infra sector. Yesterday Hindujas made a proposal of 50B dollar investment to the GoI with a time span of 4-5 yrs, add to this the industrial corridor on which japan is all excited to make investments, railways r sitting on a massive surplus, etc and by the way all these investments are other than the ones that r being made in the SEZs.

He said expensive hotel, and there was no light, ………….. guess where he must be putting up. He never cared to mention gurgaon………why? Today there is a 8 lane highway that takes u to the airport, airport would have a all new look by 2010. This chap made a pick and choose but never cared to mention the bright side……….

Boss we have problems but one has to understand the reasons, one our polity, then the decision making process and then eventually the implementation process and we suck in all of these 3 parameters. But see what has given the light of hope to india, it’s the private sector, see how they have performed, look at the number of take overs happening from indian front world over, man india stood 2nd in the number of take overs from asia (all out bound), and mind u china was not number 1. One also has to understand than china started with the opening of the economy in 1979 and the same story was repeated in india only by 1991, but look at it this way, last month FM said the half yearly per capita income stood at $1000, so tha means with population of 1.1B the economy was no less than $1.1T, and this figure is expected to be around 1.2T by the present fin-yr end now compare the same figure when it was achieved by china, there is a very clear time gap of 10-12 years, and with all the odds that democracy brings along with it, we have still done phenomenally well.

Mind u sir there r ways of projecting things, and probably this chap got a little frustrated with why so much poverty around, india is still spoken in the same breath as china, u see he has lived for 8 years there so the pissed off reporter had to dig up some thing…….:).

Cheers, India is well and truly on its way to its rightful place.
 
#8
Re: Indian Growth Story Vs China (Reality or Or Hight of Optimism)

To begin with this is a pretty old article, atleast year and a half old. right!

There is a difference between an autocratic rule to a democratic rule, but boy arent the corrective measures being taken. Think of it 500B dollars in 5 years time and then eventually over 1.6T dollars or more on a 10 yr time span and all this goes towards the infra sector. Yesterday Hindujas made a proposal of 50B dollar investment to the GoI with a time span of 4-5 yrs, add to this the industrial corridor on which japan is all excited to make investments, railways r sitting on a massive surplus, etc and by the way all these investments are other than the ones that r being made in the SEZs.

He said expensive hotel, and there was no light, .. guess where he must be putting up. He never cared to mention gurgaonwhy? Today there is a 8 lane highway that takes u to the airport, airport would have a all new look by 2010. This chap made a pick and choose but never cared to mention the bright side.

Boss we have problems but one has to understand the reasons, one our polity, then the decision making process and then eventually the implementation process and we suck in all of these 3 parameters. But see what has given the light of hope to india, its the private sector, see how they have performed, look at the number of take overs happening from indian front world over, man india stood 2nd in the number of take overs from asia (all out bound), and mind u china was not number 1. One also has to understand than china started with the opening of the economy in 1979 and the same story was repeated in india only by 1991, but look at it this way, last month FM said the half yearly per capita income stood at $1000, so tha means with population of 1.1B the economy was no less than $1.1T, and this figure is expected to be around 1.2T by the present fin-yr end now compare the same figure when it was achieved by china, there is a very clear time gap of 10-12 years, and with all the odds that democracy brings along with it, we have still done phenomenally well.

Mind u sir there r ways of projecting things, and probably this chap got a little frustrated with why so much poverty around, india is still spoken in the same breath as china, u see he has lived for 8 years there so the pissed off reporter had to dig up some thing.:).

Cheers, India is well and truly on its way to its rightful place.
:rolleyes: Interesting and motivating answers.
But unless we see China physically, comparison cannot be made in true sense. All thoughts of faring better than China will be just a fantasy until then. Lets get back to reality. :eek: .
 
U

uasish

Guest
#9
To excel we must listen patiently & analyze unbiasedly.All these talks of Infrastructure development is far from being fructified,now the GOI will go in election mode hence still delayed.Let us not get swayed away by the monumental achievements so far it is nothing until Infrastructural development's mamoth juggernut starts chugging in the Right direction.
World's goliath Economy is in back foot,being globalised one has to be extra cautious & work overtime.
The achievement of China in two words is Stupendously Awesome,but it also has it's fair bit of challenge areas.
Some times my jaws drop in astonishments regarding the Indian Railways Lateral Thinking processes.
 
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#10
Is indian infrastructure investment of 500B USD all hype or a reality, lets have a look (mind u the 11th 5 year plan has just recently been presented in front of the cabinet):

1. Industrial Corridor to absorb $90-100B in the coming 4 years

2. Hindujas to invest $50B


3. Power Sector needs 10.31lakh Cr in 11th 5 yr plan: Shinde
Out of the proposed capacity-addition of 78,500 mw during the 11th Plan, 1,870 mw has already been commissioned and another 50,975 mw is under construction, he said.
Each 1000MW electricity production needs an investment of 4000Cr or more, so that means 50,975MW (+1,870MW) means more than 2,12,000Cr(+) have been/are being invested (ie $54B(+))

4. Mittal Total to set up $6B AP refinery
4a. RIL plans $6B investment at Jamnagar
4b. Essar to add capacity at $6B
4c. IOC Draws $11B 5-Yr Plan For Capacity Expansion
4d. ONGC targets $19B investment in the 11th 5 yr plan in India
4e. Reliance to invest $9 bn in KG basin
4f.RIL to invest 3B USD in laying down of pipe line
The company will investing over $3 billion for laying 14,000 km pipelines, he said.
5. Telecom:
Bharti Plans $2.3B in 2008
NEW DELHI: Bharti Airtel, India's largest private cellular operator, has announced an investment of over two billion dollar (Rs 9,000 crore) in 2007-08 to expand network, but wanted state-run BSNL to share infrastructure.

"Of the total capex for the next financial year, maximum will go for the rural areas," Akhil Gupta, Joint Managing Director, Bharti Airtel, said on the sidelines of a conference organised by Confederation of Indian Industry and Ericsson.

Gupta, however, raised the issue of infrastructure sharing with Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd, saying this would lead to faster roll out of networks there.

"I appeal to the government to force BSNL to share its infrastructure with private operators," he said.

BSNL has so far opposed such an arrangement, saying huge investments have gone in creating rural infrastructure and private players should not be allowed to take undue advantage.

Gupta also said the company was waiting for rules to be framed for introduction of next generation (3G) mobile services to start operations both in rural and urban areas.

The company has chalked out its rural strategy and would concentrate on rural areas, which have huge growth potential, in the years to come, he said.

Bharti, which has 30 per cent market share in GSM-based industry with 32 million subscribers, would also bring the broadband in rural areas, Gupta said.

He claimed that as on September 2006, Bharti had presence in 155,000 smaller towns as part of its strategy to cover rural India and another 20,000 towns to be added soon.

Bharti would bring the broadband, especially with wireless technology, in rural areas when the policy to start 3G services was announced, he said.

Rural areas have so far been given mainly voice and message services. Wireless broadband had great potential for rural India, he said, adding this would also help the rural community to remain connected.

Besides, broadband would also help increase business activity for the farming community, he said
5a.Vodafone to invest $2 bn in India in every year:
- They say for 3 yrs: $6B by 2010.
5b. BSNL to invest 15.3B USD by 2010
- BSNL to foray in CDMA platform with $500M
5c. Rel Com to invest 2.6B USD in 07-08
- Rel Com to ring in $750M in next 9 months for GSM expansion

6. [ur=http://www.commodityonline.com/news/topstory/newsdetails.php?id=3421] India to produce 124 MT steel in 2012 [/url]
6a. The present capacity is around 50MT
6b. Government to invest $12.5B in SAIL
6c. Arcelor Mittal to invest between $15-16B, POSCO: $14-15B, etc
6d.JSW to invest $10B in 3 yr, of this $7B in core sector other than power sector
6e. Sino Steel to invest $4B

These r just some of the sectors and even in these sectors, these r some very specific investments. There r big investments happening in aviation sector, roads, sea ports, etc.

The investments that I have listed up add up close to 345B USD, mind u there can be some over lapping but dont take it more than 20-40B USD. This means atleat 60-70% of the 500B have worked out.