From My Trading system: 1-3 Day Trades

arvind61

Active Member
#1
I am an Engineer by education from an institute of repute with 25 + years of experience in technology product development. Have significant years of work experience in Signal processing and pattern matching. I am No exponent of English language so kindly go easy on my literary skills - specially grammar and spellings.

Sometime in 2002-3 when IT bubble had busted ,I happened to read an article about how so many indicators were pointing to the impending bust but people ignored it. That got me interested in technical indicators. I researched a lot them and soon found out what you all already know. Some worked better in certain market condition while others worked better in other. There was no magic wand.

Always interested in algorithms, I coded several of them to notice inherent complexities of predicting price. From breakout/breakdown to Moving averages to Elliot wave to more recent open interest, volatility and so on. Those must have been simple times when Japanese rice traders made money by simply locating a 'Doji '. Now , so many of us got 'hammered' or 'dojified' to our 'grave-stone' if we followed candle stick signals carelessly.

Time frames seemed to be one very important aspect to me. As in the sea the bigger wave always manages to change the direction of smaller wave , in markets the bigger time frame event will interrupt the course of smaller time frame trend without any excuse. So daily traders should be wary of weekly events specially on Fridays and Thursdays. Similarly weekly crowed should look over the shoulder towards month end.

The other cardinal principal which seemed to hold true in all the time frames was the Dow theory of Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms or Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms these days.

So taking these two as the main principles and all other techniques as mere supporting tools I had embarked on building my system from scratch absolutely single handedly. Only input was the downloads from NSE data. Rest all thousands of lines of java code and database is my lone effort.

To cut the chase , let me quickly finish that over the last several years first part time and then almost full time for almost last 3-4 years I have managed to put to gather a Trading System of some sorts. Its work in progress in some areas but I guess it gives decent performance in daily time frames. I have had no access to any professional trading station to compare. I leave that to feedback from janta which will spur me to betterment.

Why am I not making money trading and writing all this stuff here , if it all seemed to be working all right and decent. Good question to ask. Well, to make money from market you need money first. After years of underpayment no payment and bad trades my resources have dwindled to critical level. I do trade sometime but that takes focus away from my work.

So my friends! I come to you to improve and hopefully some of you would make money and help me make some too. You can advise me on revenue model.

All the stocks of NSE are analyzed for various patterns. I would give some of them in next few days -

Usual disclosure applies - I am no certified investment/trading professional. Individual to seek professional advice before doing trades. These are for information only

:thumb:

Here are my Day 1 Trades -

Buying Price may not be near yesterday closing price. We may expect it to dip before it goes up again. Similarly A fall may happen after some rise.

Keep stop loss as mentioned , don't carry the trade to next day unless you are sure. I would cut my trades if I am less than 2 % in profit or in any loss at the end of the day. Trade in the direction of NIFTY whenever possible.


stock Buy range stop Loss

Reliance 841.1 - 844 831.9


Sell Stop Loss

aban 294.8 - 295.6 298
AXISBANK 1403- 1404 1428
DishTv 68-69 70
 
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arvind61

Active Member
#2
Thank you all for thanking me.

Today NIFTY closed below 20 DAY EMA and is precariously poised at 20 DAY DMA. If global cues are bad, NIFTY may not defend 20 Day DMA may be reversing to 5700. There might be some effort to stall it at 10 Day DMA - 5823 which should be futile.

SGX NIFTY should be good indicator to look at for morning trade.

Here are some of the HTHB or LTLB patterns poised at critcal levels to pull of some quick trades -

Please remember I give bit conservative entry price to minimize stop loss. More aggressive traders can take just little bit liberty .These should slightly higher probabillity trades with closely placed stop loss

All prices in cash

Short ONGC 319 - 319.75 SL 325

Short Union bank 227-229 SL 233

short -ALBK - there might be an effort to scare todays shorts by rising to about 143 at some time that would be the place to put the short with SL of 146

short SBI - may give false bounce back to 2190 -2200 where it could be shorted with SL 2220

short icicibank - at 1097-1107 SL 1120

dont see any good longs

:thumb:
 

arvind61

Active Member
#3
Too much volatility today. 3 days of action concentrated in one day.

For traders the importance of sop loss can never be overstated. An investor has more time to think about stop loss but a trader has to have clear exit points before placing the trade.

The practice I now follow after lot of pain is there has to be a stop loss order before even you place the main order. One can put a deeper stop loss order first and then modify it with the changing situation. For short term trades I don't carry the trade to next day if I am less than 2 % in profit or if there is a big fundamental news favouring my direction. There is always next trade. It would limit your gains several times but save one from catastrophe.

False hope is one's biggest enemy and other saying which is absolutely true in trading is "Best is Enemy of Good". In order to gain maximum from a trade we often move to losing territory. In hoping for the best even good has gone from the hand.

I had mentioned in my first post bigger time frame events will always disturb smaller time frame set ups. Fridays afternoons are often roller coaster rides. Don't lose once you are winning.

Here is what I get from my system what statistically proven to be higher probability trades -

Long Unitech - 28.3 - 28.8 Stop 27.6
Long RCOM 66.9 -67.3 Stop 66
Long SBI has reversed from yesterday 2190-2208 stop 2160

Short INFY 2888-2898 stop 2920
Short Biocon 277.5-278.2 stop 282.5

Good luck to all -

:thumb:
 

arvind61

Active Member
#4
In last few years our markets have been basically trading market and a graveyard for long time investors. NIFTY was at 6200 in Jan 2008 when Mother dairy milk was 15 Rs. per litre. Now NIFTY is 5900 when mother dairy milk is 30 Rs a litre. It would look more shocking against petrol. Look at our marquee stock Reliance which was about 1400 back then. So comparing to milk and bread our Index is actually half or less than that since 2008

There was a period from 2002 to 2008 when anyone who stayed long enough in market made money. Very few lost. Since then markets have become treacherous. Almost everyone sine 2008 has lost money. An investor in stocks is gone. People hope to double their money in real state in 3 years why should they be investing in stocks to half their money. Since no one is even talking about bubble in Real state so I guess trend would continue. I feel Real state is the biggest hideout for corruption in India. "White men kitna , black men kitna" we have accepted that as day and night.

Few years back when I realized that to stay alive in market one needs to be both long and short and bit nimble footed , I got into reading about Japanese Candle Stick charts signals, I thought understanding and locating them would be all one would need to make profits. But my hopes were busted soon after taking few trades based on those alone. They do hint trading psychology prevailing over that day(s) but their location in the trend is very important. An Evening star at the Resistance level backed by volume on either or both days would be meaningful. Lot more goes on in the markets. Overnight position can get jolted by happenings in Greek. We are constantly watching DOW, FTSE
etc to make impact here. Most often it happens the future positions we carry. It may be worthwhile to by a put or call for overnight insurance.

I will write my trading picks for Monday tomorrow. For now I am listing some stock which have interesting Candle Locations in the trend as found by my system - Not all of them may be trade worthy.





AMBUJACEM 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Harami 2
UNITECH 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Dark Cloud Cover 4
DLF 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8
INDIACEM 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9
ABAN 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Morning Star 0
INDHOTEL 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 12
HDIL 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 2
ACC 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9
BANKINDIA 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Doji 0
GODREJIND 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9
ALBK 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 0
ABIRLANUVO 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 0
ADANIPOWER 3/15/2013 CANDLE DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8
 

arvind61

Active Member
#5
Few Words on the Candle Sticks I had given yesterday -

Ambuja - Bearish Harami - is near bottom but volume of the day is half of the 10 day average. On significant volumes it would have indicated a bottom crack. Also on weekly charts exactly opposite Bullish Harami , with a Doji (indecision)and just above 50 Week DMA which should be major support. So no Trade. But in daily chart its forming triple bottom a close below 185 might do significant damage.

Unitech - Closed just above 20 Day DMA on weekly taken support from 50 week DMA 20 Week DMA around 31.5 would work as resistance. Momentum made on Thursday is lost. Big boost comes post 31.5 An other day of black candle makes it weak tomorrow and a candidate to short if closes below 28 tomorrow.

DLF- at 20 Day EMA/DMA needs go below that convincingly to short. Appears to be triple top (modestly increasing though) on daily chart. No clear trade tomorrow as of now.


Similarly others can be analysed.


My trades for tomorrow are -

Buy ABAN 293-294 stop 287
Short AdaniPower 48-48.75 Stop 50.5
short AlBk 142.7 - 143.3 Stop 145
short Arvind 81.5-82 Stop 83.5
short BhrtiAirtl 314-317 Stop 319.5

:thumb:
 

arvind61

Active Member
#6
Today was the day to research what happens after GAP down. Thanks to external events. The following largish Cap stops opened with Gap down of at least 0.5 %. Some of them sustained the Gap and closed below opening while others tried to fill the Gap and closed higher than the opening. Here is the list -


CAPCODE SECTOR STOCK_NAME TRIG_DATE INDICATOR CALL PERIOD TEST_DES CUR_PRICE
LARGE_CAPS [FINANCE] IDBI 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 87.75
LARGE_CAPS [CHEMICAL] CHAMBLFERT 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 53.1
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] DLF 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 270.05
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] JPASSOCIAT 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 74
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] IBREALEST 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 60.65
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] IVRCLINFRA 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 24.75
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] IRB 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 121.85
LARGE_CAPS [DIVERSIFIED] OPTOCIRCUI 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 59.25
LARGE_CAPS [Energy] ONGC 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 317.65
LARGE_CAPS [Energy] CAIRN 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 297.05
LARGE_CAPS [ENGINEERIG] LT 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 1510.35
LARGE_CAPS [FINANCE] HDFC 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 810.1
LARGE_CAPS [FINANCE] RELCAPITAL 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 368.05
LARGE_CAPS [PHARMA] BIOCON 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 273.15
LARGE_CAPS [TELECOM] BHARTIARTL 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 307.5
LARGE_CAPS [STEEL] TATASTEEL 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 349.3
LARGE_CAPS [PSU BANKS] IOB 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 70.2
LARGE_CAPS [PSU BANKS] BANKBARODA 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 718.45
LARGE_CAPS [PSU BANKS] PNB 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 794.5
LARGE_CAPS [Power ] JSWENERGY 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 57.4
LARGE_CAPS [PHARMA] DRREDDY 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Not Sustained 1802.9
LARGE_CAPS [METALS] HINDCOPPER 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 111.75
LARGE_CAPS [ OILMARKET] ESSAROIL 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 83.35
LARGE_CAPS [METALS] STER 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 96.4
LARGE_CAPS [ OILMARKET] BPCL 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 392.1
LARGE_CAPS [FINANCE] IDFC 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 152
LARGE_CAPS [CONSTRUCTION] SINTEX 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 55.1
LARGE_CAPS [AUTO] TATAMTRDVR 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 163.7
LARGE_CAPS [ MINING/MINERAL ] COALINDIA 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 302.3
LARGE_CAPS [TELECOM] RCOM 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 65.05
LARGE_CAPS [Power ] RECLTD 3/18/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap Low, Sustained 215.85


Looking at Dow and S&P it seems US markets have shrugged off the Cypress event and at this time about to fill the GAP completely. While we look to Credit Policy tomorrow. Tomorrow might be an other day of volatility but these stock have shown the set up as per daily charts today - Be mindful of Credit policy action and nimble footed.

Short Arvind 80.8 - 81.5 Stop 82.5
Short CanBank 430-433 Stop 435
Buy BankIndia 324-325 Stop 320
Short DLF 273.2 - 24 Stop 276.1
short HindZink 118.2 -119 Stop 116.4
short GODREJCP 755-757 Stop 763
short NMDC 142.5 -143.5 Stop 145.1
short TATAGLOBAL 132.5 133.5 Stop 135.1

Let market settle down for few minutes then try trade in direction of NIFTY



Good luck to all ..:thumb:
 

arvind61

Active Member
#7
Yet another external shock , this time from Cypress which to me rhymed and acted like Mauritius.

Today's event has disrupted several patterns . I am not getting any high probability set up. Meanwhile I list the stock which had opened with gaps today. They may be heading to fill the gap tomorrow..


ANDHRABANK 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 97.75
INDHOTEL 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 55.3
ORIENTBANK 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 254.05
HINDZINC 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 115.8
BIOCON 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 278.2
ICICIBANK 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 1032.6
ITC 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 306.3
CIPLA 3/19/2013 GAP WATCH DAILY Open Gap High, Not Sustained 383.55



Also the Stocks which had at least 3 days of consecutive narrowing of range and a range which is minimum in at least 8 days are -

MCX 3/19/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 8 903.95
GODREJCP 3/19/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 10 746.6


BERGEPAINT 3/19/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY SRD: 3 Min : 21 197
M&MFIN 3/19/2013 SRD WATCH DAILY *Inside Day + SRD: 3 Min in: 11 202.5
 

arvind61

Active Member
#8
Also some interestingly placed Candles -


HEROMOTOCO 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 24 1645.6
SATYAMCOMP 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Evening Star 16 129.15
JPASSOCIAT 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 71.4
VIJAYABANK 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9 49.35
DENABANK 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 91.75
ASIANPAINT 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 13 4909.35
ZEEL 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9 214.15
ZEEL 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Evening Star 16 214.15
UNIONBANK 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9 225.9
IRB 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 24 116.45
DABUR 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 135.95
SRTRANSFIN 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 0 696.7
PUNJLLOYD 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 46.25
CAIRN 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 0 287.25
ABAN 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Evening Star 16 283.25
OIL 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 515.1
AUROPHARMA 3/19/2013 CANDLE BUY DAILY Bullish Harami 2 157.65
SYNDIBANK 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 117.65
HDFC 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9 784.55
BAJAJ-AUTO 3/19/2013 CANDLE BUY DAILY Bullish Harami 2 1835.9
RENUKA 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 25.1
JINDALSTEL 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 9 341.25
BANKINDIA 3/19/2013 CANDLE SELL DAILY Bearish Engulfing 8 312.7
 

arvind61

Active Member
#9
And stock where delivery Qty was prominent -


ARVIND 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 78.35
IDFC 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 147.5
SINTEX 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 51.15
GAIL 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 323.45
RELIANCE 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 825
BHARTIARTL 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 293.4
ABIRLANUVO 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 1001.95
COALINDIA 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 297.85
TV18BRDCST 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 26.95
SUNPHARMA 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 839.05
LUPIN 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 619.6
BHEL 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 185.8
DIVISLAB 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 30 Day High 999.9
TATAPOWER 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 98
VIJAYABANK 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 49.35
MUTHOOTFIN 3/19/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 191.95
 
#10
Strongest and weakest stock in last 7 days


Percentage Top gainer and losers in last 7 days -

Top 20 Gainers of the last 7 days

RANBAXY 5.195741
PEL 5.112743
JUBLFOOD 4.440032
GMRINFRA 4.010021
ASIANPAINT 3.302546
LUPIN 3.2666626
MOTHERSUMI 3.2217767
SIEMENS 3.0859706
ITC 2.4928832
HINDUNILVR 2.0362217
DABUR 1.9879924
BOSCHLTD 1.7456
COLPAL 1.6607205
SUNPHARMA 1.4141551
RELGOLD 1.3231211
KOTAKGOLD 1.3043951
PUNJLLOYD 1.0928962
HCLTECH 1.0472527
GLAXO 0.7683727
MPHASIS 0.5174854

Losers --

NATIONALUM -16.482302
MMTC -13.051679
RAYMOND -10.908234
WELCORP -10.8131485
PTC -10.635037
SINTEX -10.576921
SUZLON -10.153844
ABB -10.120171
CENTURYTEX -10.105001
ENGINERSIN -10.005422
IVRCLINFRA -9.960159
ORIENTBANK -9.959238
HDIL -9.463486
ADANIPOWER -9.4246025
ESSAROIL -9.204544
RECLTD -9.004639
DLF -8.624343
HINDCOPPER -8.167584
BATAINDIA -8.159856
ICICIBANK -8.058054
 

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