Diary of a 315 Trader

[NANDAMAD]

Did not understand ur last sentence. Do u mean a reversal from here?

 

[trade4putuval]

We can't say exactly reversal. Nobody can predict that . But there is 38.2% Fibo level at 5763, 50% at 5853, 61.8% at 5942. If nifty bounces from 5763, it could go to these levels before going down again.

Alternatively it could break through 5763 too.

From ichimoku point of view, the cloud top stands near 5942, so it could be a rise to these levels before breaking down again or reversing the trend.

Strategy is to go long or short around these levels with strict SL.

 

[bapu4]

Hi putuval,

how does the ICHIMOKU work on smaller time frames such as 5,15,30 min charts ???

-vivek

 

[trade4putuval]

Hi putuval,

how does the ICHIMOKU work on smaller time frames such as 5,15,30 min charts ???

-vivek

It does work good! You need the software for the same. I heard that 4 hour chart is very good. I have not seen it though.

I do only EOD analysis of ichimoku. Even then, I am a learner of this strategy. There are lot many things that I have not yet understood/learnt.

 

[trade4putuval]

Nifty Today's view


Well, Nifty changed its course. It tried to stay above 5763, and seems it does not want to. When it closed, it was 5765, but settlement came to 5760.

Now let's see today's daily chart.

See the brown arrows. It is pointing to three different locations for the following reasons. All these can be stronger cases for being a support to a falling nifty.

• A tight consolidation before it went further higher!
• A previous fall that got arrested at this price. But I wouldn't give importance to this, because there was an even bigger fall after this that cut through this price.
• Backward Cloud bottom that can give a small support. But the cloud is not flat like a step. If the cloud was a step like formation, we can be absolutely sure that this will be a minor reversal.
• Fibo Level of 23.6%.

Based on this finding, I draw the path with red arrows, followed by green arrows. I stopped the green arrow at the cloud bottom, because it is a very long forward cloud step, and a very thick cloud (5850 to 6080). The thicker the cloud, the higher the resistance to price. From this price, follows a red arrow.

Now let us look at the weekly chart.

Don't we see a similarity here? Since this is a weekly chart, we do not expect to see immediate results. Red arrow till cloud top, followed by an entry into the cloud (I see it touching 100EMA, the blue line), reverse to cloud top. And then fall to the new level (double bottom formation in daily).

Coincidentally, the levels of the weekly and daily are matching. But this is for today.


Alternatively, we look at another possibility in daily. If nifty manages to turn around and keeps itself afloat above the Fibo level of 5765, then we target the next Fibo level 5853. So strategy would be to wait till yesterday's high (5793) to be sure that we are not in a false move, and then enter with multiple lots for target of 5853, with strict stoploss of 10 Rs below yesterday's high.

So strategy would be to go short at whatever high you get today with stop loss of 5793, which if hit go long for target of 5853 with stop loss of 5783. Alternatively, if the fall continues, keep accumulating nifty longs at the 50 SMA in weekly (5714) and even lower based on other indicators, if any.

 

[trade4putuval]

Re: Nifty Today's view

Well, Nifty changed its course. It tried to stay above 5763, and seems it does not want to. When it closed, it was 5765, but settlement came to 5760.

Now let's see today's daily chart.

...


Alternatively, we look at another possibility in daily. If nifty manages to turn around and keeps itself afloat above the Fibo level of 5765, then we target the next Fibo level 5853. So strategy would be to wait till yesterday's high (5793) to be sure that we are not in a false move, and then enter with multiple lots for target of 5853, with strict stoploss of 10 Rs below yesterday's high.

So strategy would be to go short at whatever high you get today with stop loss of 5793, which if hit go long for target of 5853 with stop loss of 5783. Alternatively, if the fall continues, keep accumulating nifty longs at the 50 SMA in weekly (5714) and even lower based on other indicators, if any.

I bought nifty at 5714 5 lots and square off 40 Rs up, expecting a resistance at 5763, which did not happen. It went ahead and broke the high of Thursday. So now what!!

As explained in my previous post, there is a resistance at Fibo levels of 5853. So price should rise till that point. But looking at the 30 minutes indicators, I see some downtrend till the 15ema, which stands at 5777. So we should see a bounce back from this level, with strict stop of Fibo level 5763 - 10 points. I am short 10 lots with this expectation.

By weekly indicators, we still see downside. So I am expecting to short near 5853 (Also tenken of weekly) for target of the intersection shown in the chart.

Let's see!

 

[bapu4]

It does work good! You need the software for the same. I heard that 4 hour chart is very good. I have not seen it though.

I do only EOD analysis of ichimoku. Even then, I am a learner of this strategy. There are lot many things that I have not yet understood/learnt.

Dear Putuval,
As we all know humility is the virtue that takes a person long way on the path of knowledge.If I compare myself I am no where to your knowledge and you say you have to still learn then what is my status,its too low, but neverthless the interest in topic makes one learn and off course your notes on the topic are always enlightening.

 

[bapu4]

Dear Putuval,
1) I was jus going through the posts of this trade, in the beginning i saw the GFZ ,envelope and u have also given the chart , but i didnt understand the application ? What u wanted to say ?

2) Also, is there any rule or concept that where should we use ema,wma or sma and which one ?? Also why to use the particular MA there itself ??

'coz in the post i mentioned above u have used 50 sma .

Plz put some light !!

Regards,
Vivek

 

[bapu4]

Future: BPCL

Strategy:

• 315 Correction Strategy ( 6 weeks and 3 days since the candle has touched 15 EMA)
• GFZ (Great Fool Zone using SMA Envelope (14 +/- 8% setup))

Patterns: Long green bar followed by a DOJI, sign of evening star??

Target:

• 611 (15EMA as of today)
• 575 (Lower Band of SMA Envelope)

Supporting Facts: see the peers, HPCL and IOC. Both had a relative bad day on Friday displaying bearish trend.

See below the SMA envelope suggesting GFZ. (Any better settings, you are welcome to recommend)

Dear Putuval,
1) I was jus going through the posts of this trade, in the beginning i saw the GFZ ,envelope and u have also given the chart , but i didnt understand the application ? What u wanted to say ?

2) Also, is there any rule or concept that where should we use ema,wma or sma and which one ?? Also why to use the particular MA there itself ??

'coz in the post i mentioned above u have used 50 sma .

Plz put some light !!

Regards,
Vivek

 

[bapu4]

Dear Putuval,
I am observing a Head and shoulders pattern in RIL's weekly chart !!
I am posting the image with demarcations and target price !! awaiting for your valuable comments !!

Let me explain what i have done !!

1) 3 red arrows converging on top are pointing towards head and the shoulders !!
2) A blue colored trendline is drawn from top of the head and passing alon the left shoulder !!
3) Fibo levels are applied !!
4) A blue coloured horizontal neckline has been drawn at 762 price !!
5) A black colored arrow is made starting from top of the head(i.e. 955) to neck line (762) !!

Now according to the head and shoulder theory , if the price breaks the neckline then it has to come to the price of 570 (Neckline-(head-neckline)=762-(955-762)=569=target price) !!

And the zig-zag descending blue lines that are made considering the resistances , supports, intersections of the trendline, fibo levels and the ichimoku cloud !!

Your comments plz !!

-Vivek