Could the Nifty be heading for a nosedive?

[sh50]

Very facinating analysis, binzy and could easily rate as one of the best posts. It gives a good idea to even those unfamiliar with the Gann basics. Its a fantastic example-explicit, comprehensive thorough:-

My dear dinzy,
The stock price movement is almost always so fuzzy
That figuring it out can make one dizzy
If not drive one crazy
In that context, your post is really Jazzy
Posts like these enable one to trade with renewed frenzy


Now if only some Elliot expert can take some initiative and get us to do some wave count on charting exercises-it would be both educative and entertaining.

 

[Neal]

Re: Some startling Market Geometry

Hi im3vil, I'm 3 curious ... [email protected]

An afterthought... I know only the basics of Elliott Wave (other wavers plz enlighten us further) but this much is apparent:

920 bottom in Apr '03 - 2014.65 top in Jan '04 = 8 months of consecutively higher close
2014.65 top in Jan '04 - 1292.2 bottom in May '04 = 5 months (total = 13 months)
1292.2 bottom in May '04 - 2120.15 top in Jan '05 = 8 months (total = 21 months)

All Fibonacci Numbers... probability of major trend reversal is very high. I would book my profits and bail out

Good one binzy,

I am just about opening up to Gann & Elliott, but I love Fibonacci!

 

[binzy]

My dear sh-fifty,
Anyone can analyse the Nifty...
Even certified fools
if they have the right tools,
can get movin n shakin n shifty

Note: www.dictionary.com defines 'shifty' as: Able to accomplish what is needed; resourceful

 

[sh50]

That was resourceful indeed. You can take liberty with words-poetic license even if unmnentioned in dictionaries:-

Your reply was really cool
The question is not of being/not being a a fool
In any field ,Talent is more important than the tool
Which is why there is many a training(for trading) school
Without them and posts like yours, trading can prove to be another tsunami-a whirlpool

Your post was indeed wonderful. It makes me feel embarassed as a "senior member". I think some people should be promoted straightaway depending upon the kind of knowledgeable posts they make.

 

[binzy]

William Delbert Gann

Dear sh50,

If 50 is your age or the number of hairs on your head, your experience and trading skills must far outstrip mine - I am merely a rank novice. Designations are so inconsequential - I wouldn't mind if Traderji downgraded me to a Rookie or a Pest After all, it's been only a year since I started trading the markets, but I'm hooked on Gann already.

I honestly believe that if ever there was a key to demystifying stock market action, Gann had it. He did write several books to save people from committing financial suicide, but he also guarded his real secrets jealously, so that only those who are willing to put in a tremendous amount of effort can unlock those doors. But why deny people the chance to try? Why should his knowledge not benefit those it was intended for? If anyone has a request for a certain e-book on his trading techniques, and also knows his full name ... maybe I can help.

And Sh50, if you're as sensational as a trader as you are at your vers libre, how about dinner? My treat

 

[im3vil]

My 2 cents to the thread!


im3vil

 

[sh50]

Very interesting. From that Gann post, it seems that you are a Vetran. I don't recall anybody making such a post about Gann in this forum unless I have missed it. Thanks for enlightening me. I didn't know he was so good and important. Elliot and Gann are like the market itself - enigmatic kind of.

Where treat is concerned, we used to say in school, "Muft ka to samosa bhi bhala". Jokes apart, a practical orientation on Gann would indeed be a real treat. Treat or no treat, it would be a pleasure to meet you. I am Delhi based.

I have been trading for roughly the samt time frame. I would prefer to be a sensational trader than a poet anyday.

 

[im3vil]

Elliot is more post mortem i think..half the time. the so called ellioticans dont know which wave thy r on!!! there is always the X wave... always to their rescue.

 

[arun]

Elliot is more post mortem i think..half the time. the so called ellioticans dont know which wave thy r on!!! there is always the X wave... always to their rescue.

Exactly my sentiments. The X wave is extremely convienient. If someting does'nt fit it becomes X WAVE! See this thread on Elliott Wave Theory

 

[binzy]

Anyone who has studied Glenn Neely's encyclopaedia of Elliott Waves knows that the theory is fundamentally sound, and there can be no market action outside of what he has described (except for diametrics, which he discovered later!). But here's why I prefer studying Gann over Elliott:
- The chances of putting two theorists in a room and getting them to agree on a wave count (specially as the minor waves unfold) are 1 out of 1.618E10 With Gann, there are self-evident tops and bottoms.
- You need weekly, daily, hourly, half-hourly, even 5-minute data to analyse the 'waves within the waves within the waves within the .... so on and so forth....' before the long-term trader can even begin to guess the larger waves. With Gann, weekly and daily charts are ample evidence of all market action.
- There are innumerable instances when the orthodox top/bottom is very different from the actual ending/beginning of a wave. Any error in counting one can have a cascading effect in counting the remaining. I have seen people describing the 2003 rally as an impulse, others describing it as a zig-zag correction. Whom do you believe? The behavior and implications of both are vastly different. With Gann, though, the orthodox top or bottom IS the point of reference for future projections.

The most successful traders never pick tops and bottoms - they merely ride the trend and stay alert to high-probability turning points. Someone using a combination of Elliott and Gann methods can better detect the confluence of major energies to identify potential turning points. If not, Gann alone used so many tools and mathematical techniques that if one can master these, they will present excellent trading setups. Trading with Elliott alone, though, can be treacherous and rife with pitfalls.

My 2 cents